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Grain Comments: 08.03.23

A pause in liquidation allowed futures to stabilize in overnight trade with corn steady/+1, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat up 3-5 cents. The Us dollar was again higher while energies and equities were lower.

 

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales, Drought Maps

 

  • Bank of England raises interest rates 25-basis points
  • Russia may tax fertilizer exports another 8%
  • Global economy influencing commodity demand

 

Several daily export sales have been announced over recent weeks and these are expected to start surfacing in today’s export sales report. This is especially the case on soybeans where sales have been announced nearly every day. These have been for new crop delivery which is not uncommon at this time of the year as importers start looking past the South American harvest. The United States has become the favored choice for soybeans in the global market from October forward. While this is supportive for the complex, the window for sales will be very narrow as importers are already looking to only secure enough coverage to bridge the gap between the US and next South American harvests. Brazilian exports are also likely to slow but not stop given the size of this year’s crop. Elevated domestic usage in Brazil is the unknown in this outlook as more Brazil soybeans will be needed for crush to cover losses in Argentine production. The same scenario is happening in the corn complex as importers are currently sourcing needs from Brazil at a sizable discount to the US. While demand has perked up in recent weeks, cumulative export demand remains well below USDA expectations, and until this corrects trade will show less interest in daily sales.

 

Highlights

* Brazil farmers slow to market 23/24 crops

* US new crop sales also very low

* Analysts see 37% increase to northern Brazil production

* Improved logistics push Brazil farmers north

* Weekly ethanol production -189,000 barrels

* Weekly ethanol stocks -428,000 barrels

* Majority of US Corn Belt sees rains

* Brazil logistics struggle to handle large crops

* Ukraine steps up attacks on Moscow

* Markets becoming more technically driven

 

Corn

* Weekly ethanol use 106 mbu, enough to meet USDA est

* Ukraine July exports equal to last year

* Ukraine sees exports holding at 4.5 mmt/month

* Export demand remains low

* Brazil exporters short on inventory

 

Soybeans

* China rotating inventory

* Brazil values up 40-50 cents/bu past week

* US offers under Brazil Oct forward

* Weather trims EU oilseed crop

* US export basis firming

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