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Grain Comments: 08.02.23

Russian attacks on Ukraine ports lifted grains overnight while soybeans fell to profit taking. Corn values were up 3-4 cents, soybeans down 8-10 cents, and wheat was 6-8 cents higher. The US dollar was steady, energies were mixed, and equities were negative.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Ethanol Data

  • Russia hits Ukraine’s Danube ports overnight
  • Attacks comes as Israel sent ships to region to load
  • Domestic buyers report adequate old crop coverage

Weather remains one of the top fundamental factors in today’s trade, but we are starting to see a shift in focus. Recent rains have been viewed as a great benefit for US crops with many of the driest regions of the US seeing precipitation over the past week. Current weather models indicate the start of August will be very favorable as well. The combination of these factors have caused a reduction in the volume of risk premium that is being held in futures, and more may be withdrawn if current conditions continue. This wetter end of the season is being credited to a strengthening El Nino which tends to bring better growing conditions to the United States. Not all regions of thew globe will see these benefits though, as El Nino patterns tend to stress other production areas including Asia and Australia. The concern in the Asian market is that the palm crop will be affected, and oil production will decline. This could bring even more export business to the US, especially with a small soybean crop in Argentina. In Australia the concern is on wheat, and while recent crop estimates have increased from initial outlooks, they are all below last year’s record crop. While export demand may increase on US crops, current totals remain well below expectations, and until this corrects market gains will be limited.


* US fall storage capacity needs monitored

* Many areas expect storage shortage

* US farmers increase nutrient applications

* US energy products continue to rally

* Loss of Ukraine supply impacts China the most

* Stronger US dollar encourages global trade

* Romania, Croatia to open more Ukraine channels

* August weather outlooks remain favorable

* El Nino brings favorable US weather patterns

* Interior US basis volatility building


* June ethanol crush 441 mbu

* Brazil corn values weaken

* Global corn supply rising

* Brazil harvest 50% complete

* High feed wheat usage continues to displace corn


* June crush 175 mbu

* June oil production 2.07 billion pounds

* YTD soy oil for biodiesel use +13%

* Soy oil use +1% from USDA est

* Brazil crushers push for coverage

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