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Grain Comments: 08.1.23

Futures consolidated overnight following yesterday’s sell-off with corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat down 5-10 cents. The US dollar is firm, energies are mixed, and equities are lower.

Today’s Reports: Fats and Oils, Grain Crushings

  • Crude oil +15% in July, 6-month high
  • June soy crush est 175.5 mbu
  • Low demand negating US production concerns

The ratings of the US corn, soybeans, and spring wheat crops all declined last week which was what trade was expecting. The US corn crop is now rated 55% Good/Excellent, a 2-point decline on the week. The crop is also rated 15% Poor/Very Poor which was an increase of 2% from a week ago. The US soybean crop rating came in at 52% G/E which was also down 2 points from a week ago. The P/VP category increased by 1 point and now stands at 15% of the crop. While these numbers do indicate the crop was stressed last week, this week’s weather conditions are much more favorable and that is what trade is now focusing on. This data also shows that 85% of both corn and soybeans remain rated fair or better. The spring wheat crop rating took the largest hit on the week which was not a surprise. The crop rating dropped 7 points from the G/E range to now stand at 42%. Spring wheat harvest is just getting underway with 2% of the crop out compared to the average 5%. Winter wheat harvest is also advancing at 80% complete which is still 3% behind last year due to rain delays to the start of the season.

Highlights

* Alternate Ukraine shipping routes double transit costs

* African leaders push Russia to allow shipping

* Russia denies war is raising world food values

* Russia threatens nuclear option

* Farmers delaying fertilizer purchases

* Demand firms world fertilizer values

* Lack of Russia supplies elevates world input costs

* Strong dollar impacts several markets

* US consumer spending is slowing

* Crude oil rallies for 5 straight weeks

Corn

* Very little new crop farmer selling

* Most farmers less than 20% sold

* Importers sourcing needs from So America

* Argentine incentive finally raises sales

* Rains slow Brazil harvest, eases storage issues

Soybeans

* Global crush margins favorable

* Domestic market seeing export competition

* El Nino likely to trim palm oil supply

* Palm oil values still weaken

* New crop US export sales 53% under projections

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