Good morning.
Follow-through selling has been the theme throughout most of the overnight session at mid-week on Wednesday, with the grain and soy markets again mostly lower this morning despite global energy markets taking a breather and there not being a lot of fresh new news otherwise. If this morning’s selling is related to the StoneX estimates that were out late yesterday, we would say buckle up, because the yield debate and ensuing volatility are only going to go up from here. As if there weren’t enough trade topics to discuss in the markets already, crop tour season is going to only add one more.
Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 6-7 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending July 31st between 1.096-1.143 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 24.60-25.00 mil bbls.
Sources familiar with the matter are reporting this morning that the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump saying that the situation should become more clear in the next 48 hours. Trump further warned of “severe consequences” should Iran abandon the talks, meaning there is still some level of market risk present. As far as details go, the new proposal would route Gulf-bound vessels through an Iranian-controlled northern channel, while outbound traffic would transit a more southern channel near Oman amid a demining of the central channel.
Government officials in Ukraine this week said the country needs to build additional grain storage facilities or risk losing harvest bushels amid the ongoing lack of export ability due to port damage caused by Russian missile/drone strikes. Those familiar say Ukraine might only be able to ship about a third of its export needs in August, and even if exports via alternative routes pick-up, best-case scenario is that around half of its export needs are shipped.
In the second auction in as many as weeks, China’s Sinograin Tuesday sold roughly 2/3s of the 501,000 tons of reserve beans offered, increasing totals from the first round as preparations continue to be made for incoming US shipments. Sources said the beans sold for around $595/ton, with deliveries mostly scheduled for October-December.
Argentina’s government announced Tuesday that it had reached a deal with maritime pilots to cut their fees by 20%, which ends a work stoppage that had been in place since the weekend and led to a backlog of ships at ports along the Parana River. For reference, maritime pilots board ships to help guide them into and out of ports and local waterways.
Though not necessarily market-related, the CME Group this week said that average daily trading volume across all markets during the month of July reached 27 million contracts, which was up some 23% from the same month last year and a new all-time record. International trading volume during the month averaged 8.8 million contracts per day, up 32%.
Overnight weather news has been minimal, with a line of storms along a slow-moving frontal boundary providing rain to parts of the central and west-central Corn Belt over the next 24-48 hours. The GFS continues to have heavier totals of 1.5-2″ further to the east than the EU model, but the two are generally in better agreement on overall amounts this morning. Note, models have trended wetter into next week on an increase in ridge-riding thunderstorm activity, but amid the model’s struggles on picking up on these systems previously we don’t know that confidence is overly great.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 08-05-2026
Good morning.
Follow-through selling has been the theme throughout most of the overnight session at mid-week on Wednesday, with the grain and soy markets again mostly lower this morning despite global energy markets taking a breather and there not being a lot of fresh new news otherwise. If this morning’s selling is related to the StoneX estimates that were out late yesterday, we would say buckle up, because the yield debate and ensuing volatility are only going to go up from here. As if there weren’t enough trade topics to discuss in the markets already, crop tour season is going to only add one more.
Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 6-7 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending July 31st between 1.096-1.143 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 24.60-25.00 mil bbls.
Sources familiar with the matter are reporting this morning that the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump saying that the situation should become more clear in the next 48 hours. Trump further warned of “severe consequences” should Iran abandon the talks, meaning there is still some level of market risk present. As far as details go, the new proposal would route Gulf-bound vessels through an Iranian-controlled northern channel, while outbound traffic would transit a more southern channel near Oman amid a demining of the central channel.
Government officials in Ukraine this week said the country needs to build additional grain storage facilities or risk losing harvest bushels amid the ongoing lack of export ability due to port damage caused by Russian missile/drone strikes. Those familiar say Ukraine might only be able to ship about a third of its export needs in August, and even if exports via alternative routes pick-up, best-case scenario is that around half of its export needs are shipped.
In the second auction in as many as weeks, China’s Sinograin Tuesday sold roughly 2/3s of the 501,000 tons of reserve beans offered, increasing totals from the first round as preparations continue to be made for incoming US shipments. Sources said the beans sold for around $595/ton, with deliveries mostly scheduled for October-December.
Argentina’s government announced Tuesday that it had reached a deal with maritime pilots to cut their fees by 20%, which ends a work stoppage that had been in place since the weekend and led to a backlog of ships at ports along the Parana River. For reference, maritime pilots board ships to help guide them into and out of ports and local waterways.
Though not necessarily market-related, the CME Group this week said that average daily trading volume across all markets during the month of July reached 27 million contracts, which was up some 23% from the same month last year and a new all-time record. International trading volume during the month averaged 8.8 million contracts per day, up 32%.
Overnight weather news has been minimal, with a line of storms along a slow-moving frontal boundary providing rain to parts of the central and west-central Corn Belt over the next 24-48 hours. The GFS continues to have heavier totals of 1.5-2″ further to the east than the EU model, but the two are generally in better agreement on overall amounts this morning. Note, models have trended wetter into next week on an increase in ridge-riding thunderstorm activity, but amid the model’s struggles on picking up on these systems previously we don’t know that confidence is overly great.
Have a great day!
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