Grain Comments: 08-06-2026

Good morning.

It was a quiet news cycle overnight with grain markets hanging around unchanged this morning. China remains active in buying U.S. beans, but mostly favorable weather limits the upside in prices. Key moving averages continue to hold as support for the new crop months in corn and beans. Conflicts remain in the Middle East and Black Sea, with hopes of a deal on the Strait increasing. Private estimates ahead of the August 12th crop report will continue to be released in the coming days.

The export sales report this morning is expected to show net sales of 200K to 600K tons of old corn and 700K to 1200K of new corn. Bean sales are estimated to be 100K to 400K tons for old crop and 900K and 1550K for new crop. Wheat sales are estimated at 250K to 450K.

Iran and Oman are nearing a deal for the Strait of Hormuz, which would provide a framework for commercial shipping through the area. The deal is not expected to include a full reopening of the Strait, and Iran would have at least some control over traffic through the area. While Iran says that talks don’t involve the U.S., President Trump continues to say that a deal is close.

Sinograin sold 334K tons of its soybean auction yesterday, or 67% of the total auction volume. This is the 2nd auction in as many weeks as China makes room for new U.S. purchases.

China was back in the U.S. bean market again yesterday, with talk that at least another 13 cargoes were bought. Estimates of total purchases by China of U.S. beans for the 26/27 are nearing 6 MMT.

The Black Sea unrest continues with rumors yesterday that Russia could close its Black Sea ports. That helped to briefly raise the global wheat markets, but the talk was later muted. Ukraine reported that it had 35 attacks on its vessels in port and 22 at sea during the month of July. This also included 67 strikes on port facilities during the month. All of 2025, there were 14 attacks on Ukraine vessels.

AgResource estimated the 2026 corn crop at 15.918 bbu. with a yield of 181.4 bpa. The group estimated the IL yield at 210 bpa with Iowa also at 210 bpa.

The Senate Ag Committee is scheduled to mark up its version of the Farm Bill this morning. The current Farm Bill extension expires on September 30th.

Support for December corn seen today at the 50-day moving average ($4.58 1/4). Support for November beans comes in today at the 100-day moving average ($11.70 1/4).

Have a great day.