Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start Thursday, with the corn and soybeans inside of yesterday’s trading ranges while wheat futures have just barely extended gains to the upside as the dust continues to settle on the USDA’s mostly friendly August crop update. Corn and soybean balance sheets cannot afford any loss of supply, though this isn’t necessarily a new development and has been known throughout most of summer. Yesterday’s report confirmed the tightness, but future market direction is still based on actual supply data in the coming months and the ongoing geopolitical situations in the Middle East and the Black Sea.
Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending August 6th, is expected to show old crop corn sales between (100k)-400k MTs and old crop soybean sales between (200k)-300k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 800k-1.4 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 1.5-1.9 MMTs, and wheat sales are seen between 200k-500k MTs.
Brazil’s CONAB will be out this morning with updated monthly crop data; traders don’t see the report showing anything Earth shattering, with soybean production expected to tick up to 181.1 MMTs and corn production expected to fall slightly to 141.1 MMTs. Both would be generally in line with the USDA.
The USDA on Wednesday pegged combined corn and soybean planted acreage in the US this year at a record 183.5 million acres, surpassing the previous high set in 2017 by some three million acres. The increase, partially the result of the lowest wheat planted area in some 150 years, underscores the massive production potential that still exists across the Midwest despite weather likely trimming the top end off national yields.
Attacks remain ongoing in the Black Sea region, with sources overnight saying Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Izmail port on the Danube River in retaliation for strikes on its Novorossiysk port earlier this week. The ongoing escalation is supportive of grain prices as export capacity out of the region continues to be reduced.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina on Wednesday said they see the country’s corn production in the 2025/26 season now reaching 70.5 MMTs, which would be a new record and is up some 2.5 MMTs from the group’s previous estimate. For 2026/27, the group sees corn production at 66 MMTs and sees soybean production at 48 MMTs, adding that corn planted area was expected to fall some 5-10% due to concerns regarding El Niño.
Thunderstorm activity looks to continue across mostly the western Midwest on Thursday, with a system of storms working across IA and into northern IL and the Great Lakes region by early morning tonight and into tomorrow. The rains discussed all week then continue into the weekend and next week, with there no sign of movement in the high-pressure ridge. This morning’s EU model run has totals over the next seven days ranging from 2-6″ for an area from NE/SD to OH, and has trended wetter all week this week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-13-2026
Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start Thursday, with the corn and soybeans inside of yesterday’s trading ranges while wheat futures have just barely extended gains to the upside as the dust continues to settle on the USDA’s mostly friendly August crop update. Corn and soybean balance sheets cannot afford any loss of supply, though this isn’t necessarily a new development and has been known throughout most of summer. Yesterday’s report confirmed the tightness, but future market direction is still based on actual supply data in the coming months and the ongoing geopolitical situations in the Middle East and the Black Sea.
Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending August 6th, is expected to show old crop corn sales between (100k)-400k MTs and old crop soybean sales between (200k)-300k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 800k-1.4 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 1.5-1.9 MMTs, and wheat sales are seen between 200k-500k MTs.
Brazil’s CONAB will be out this morning with updated monthly crop data; traders don’t see the report showing anything Earth shattering, with soybean production expected to tick up to 181.1 MMTs and corn production expected to fall slightly to 141.1 MMTs. Both would be generally in line with the USDA.
The USDA on Wednesday pegged combined corn and soybean planted acreage in the US this year at a record 183.5 million acres, surpassing the previous high set in 2017 by some three million acres. The increase, partially the result of the lowest wheat planted area in some 150 years, underscores the massive production potential that still exists across the Midwest despite weather likely trimming the top end off national yields.
Attacks remain ongoing in the Black Sea region, with sources overnight saying Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Izmail port on the Danube River in retaliation for strikes on its Novorossiysk port earlier this week. The ongoing escalation is supportive of grain prices as export capacity out of the region continues to be reduced.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina on Wednesday said they see the country’s corn production in the 2025/26 season now reaching 70.5 MMTs, which would be a new record and is up some 2.5 MMTs from the group’s previous estimate. For 2026/27, the group sees corn production at 66 MMTs and sees soybean production at 48 MMTs, adding that corn planted area was expected to fall some 5-10% due to concerns regarding El Niño.
Thunderstorm activity looks to continue across mostly the western Midwest on Thursday, with a system of storms working across IA and into northern IL and the Great Lakes region by early morning tonight and into tomorrow. The rains discussed all week then continue into the weekend and next week, with there no sign of movement in the high-pressure ridge. This morning’s EU model run has totals over the next seven days ranging from 2-6″ for an area from NE/SD to OH, and has trended wetter all week this week.
Have a great day.
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