Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are higher this morning, with the report having come and gone and focus now back on the continually deteriorating situation in the Black Sea. New port attacks overnight that have knocked out additional export facilities in the region have wheat futures in the driver’s seat early and traders are asking when does something happen or change here? The attacks can’t go on forever, but there exists little inkling today that any sort of progress has been made to slow the loss of export capability out of one of the world’s busier grain regions; it will take months if not years to repair the damage already done, and the big question today is how much more capacity is going to be lost before the two sides decide to engage in negotiations.
Corn futures to start wrapping up the week are trading 4-5 cents higher this morning, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-12 cents higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn harvest advanced to 77% complete, which continues to be well behind both last year and average amid ongoing wet field conditions. Wheat planting was seen at 99.6% complete, with 85% of the crop area currently rated either good or excellent.
According to weekly drought monitor data released on Thursday, 29% of the US corn area and 26% of the US soybean area are experiencing some form of drought conditions. The figures are similar to those seen last week but are up from 4% and 3% at this time a year ago.
Ukraine’s ag minister said on Friday that the country’s export volumes through its Black Sea ports could be restored within a month if an agreement to ban attacks on civilian vessel was reached between the two sides. Ukraine sent a proposal for such an agreement earlier this week but has heard no response.
According to weekly data from the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 8th totaled just 717k tons, which was down more than 10% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 520k tons were down 1% on the week and soybean shipments at 166k tons were down 36% from last week. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $25.14/short ton, down 32 cents from last week.
In non-market related news, Tyson Foods announced on Thursday that was planning to close or sell three of its beef plant and packaging operation sites in the US, further shrinking its footprint amid an ongoing historic US cattle shortage. The company said it planned to move the processing capacity from these sites to other locations in the US.
The White House said this week that it had the capability to maintain a naval blockade of Iran’s ports indefinitely and that it would ratchet up economic pressure on the country as ceasefire negotiations have seemingly gone by the wayside in recent days.
Ridge-riding thunderstorms have continued to impact the heart of the Corn Belt over the last 24 hours, with several high wind reports issued across parts of eastern IA and into IL and IN on Thursday. Satellite-based rainfall data for the last 72 hours shows totals from eastern NE to WV ranging from 2-6″ for the most part, but there are fairly large sections of IN that have picked up upwards of 10-12″ according to the data.
From a forecast standpoint, the pattern doesn’t show a lot of signs of changing into the weekend and first part of next week, with additional storm systems expected to continue impacting the same areas. This morning’s EU model shows an additional half inch to two inches of rainfall through the region by early Monday morning, with more than expected into the first part of next week.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 08-14-2026
Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are higher this morning, with the report having come and gone and focus now back on the continually deteriorating situation in the Black Sea. New port attacks overnight that have knocked out additional export facilities in the region have wheat futures in the driver’s seat early and traders are asking when does something happen or change here? The attacks can’t go on forever, but there exists little inkling today that any sort of progress has been made to slow the loss of export capability out of one of the world’s busier grain regions; it will take months if not years to repair the damage already done, and the big question today is how much more capacity is going to be lost before the two sides decide to engage in negotiations.
Corn futures to start wrapping up the week are trading 4-5 cents higher this morning, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-12 cents higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn harvest advanced to 77% complete, which continues to be well behind both last year and average amid ongoing wet field conditions. Wheat planting was seen at 99.6% complete, with 85% of the crop area currently rated either good or excellent.
According to weekly drought monitor data released on Thursday, 29% of the US corn area and 26% of the US soybean area are experiencing some form of drought conditions. The figures are similar to those seen last week but are up from 4% and 3% at this time a year ago.
Ukraine’s ag minister said on Friday that the country’s export volumes through its Black Sea ports could be restored within a month if an agreement to ban attacks on civilian vessel was reached between the two sides. Ukraine sent a proposal for such an agreement earlier this week but has heard no response.
According to weekly data from the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 8th totaled just 717k tons, which was down more than 10% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 520k tons were down 1% on the week and soybean shipments at 166k tons were down 36% from last week. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $25.14/short ton, down 32 cents from last week.
In non-market related news, Tyson Foods announced on Thursday that was planning to close or sell three of its beef plant and packaging operation sites in the US, further shrinking its footprint amid an ongoing historic US cattle shortage. The company said it planned to move the processing capacity from these sites to other locations in the US.
The White House said this week that it had the capability to maintain a naval blockade of Iran’s ports indefinitely and that it would ratchet up economic pressure on the country as ceasefire negotiations have seemingly gone by the wayside in recent days.
Ridge-riding thunderstorms have continued to impact the heart of the Corn Belt over the last 24 hours, with several high wind reports issued across parts of eastern IA and into IL and IN on Thursday. Satellite-based rainfall data for the last 72 hours shows totals from eastern NE to WV ranging from 2-6″ for the most part, but there are fairly large sections of IN that have picked up upwards of 10-12″ according to the data.
From a forecast standpoint, the pattern doesn’t show a lot of signs of changing into the weekend and first part of next week, with additional storm systems expected to continue impacting the same areas. This morning’s EU model shows an additional half inch to two inches of rainfall through the region by early Monday morning, with more than expected into the first part of next week.
Have a great day!
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