Good morning.
No new overnight lows at the CBOT for the first day this week is a positive sign. Corn and soybean futures are trading slightly higher to start Thursday, as buying from Wednesday has continued. Grain traders are pricing in the record large supply situation in the US, with a short-term bottom likely to be formed once that is complete. Another leg lower takes combine confirmation of yields that are above what USDA has currently forecasted. It also seems prices have finally reached a level that spurs demand, as export sales data has picked up in recent days/weeks. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are up 6-7 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 7-8 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mostly higher as well, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 60 points.
Corn and wheat futures are higher to start Thursday on news that Russia hit grain silos in the Odessa Port in Ukraine with a missile attack overnight. Two people were reported injured, but details were otherwise scarce.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending August 8th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 300k-550k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales in a range of 100k-500k mt’s.
New crop corn sales are estimated between 150k-800k mt’s, new crop soybean sales are estimated between 400k-1.0 mil mt’s, and new crop wheat sales are estimated between 200k-500k mt’s.
NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) will be out at 11am central time this morning with their July crush report. The report is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 182.367 mil bu’s, which would be up 3.9% from June, and up 5.2% from July 2023. If realized, this would also be the largest July crush figure on record.
Same group sees soybean oil stocks as of July 31 at 1.608 bil lbs., which would be down 0.8% from last month, but up 5.3% from July of last year.
The Rosario Grains Exchange said in a weekly report that Argentina’s 2023/24 corn crop will likely reach 49 mmt’s, up from their previous estimate of 47.5 mmt’s. This compares to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate of 46.5 mmt’s and the USDA at 50.0 mmt’s.
The US labor market will again be in focus for equity traders this morning, as another round of weekly jobless data is on today’s slate. Retail sales data is also scheduled for this morning and looks to give an update on the US consumer.
Ernesto has strengthened into a category 1 hurricane and is expected to move through the area of the Bermuda Islands in the Atlantic by Friday into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds were recorded at 85mph as the storm made its way through Puerto Rico yesterday.
The Western Corn Belt again saw good rains on Wednesday, with 24-hour satellite data showing anywhere from 0.1 to 2″ generally speaking, with locally heavier amounts for areas of the Dakota’s, MN, IA, MO and NW IL.
And radar data this morning shows another system curling around a low-pressure cell providing additional rainfall to the same areas and into the Great Lakes states this morning and through the day today. Models see the chance for up to 3″ by Saturday for parts of IA/IL/WI.
Overnight changes were otherwise mostly limited to the same week two gyrations that have been seen all week, as the models shifted slightly cooler again in the eastern half of the Corn Belt into the end of August. Precipitation in this time period continues to be seen below average for areas from SW TX to northern MN/WI.
Heat creeps back into the western Corn Belt over the weekend but is seen abating again by the middle part of next week. And amid decent moisture the last 48 hours, this heat does not look to produce a lot of concern for finishing corn and soybean crops.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-15-2024
Good morning.
No new overnight lows at the CBOT for the first day this week is a positive sign. Corn and soybean futures are trading slightly higher to start Thursday, as buying from Wednesday has continued. Grain traders are pricing in the record large supply situation in the US, with a short-term bottom likely to be formed once that is complete. Another leg lower takes combine confirmation of yields that are above what USDA has currently forecasted. It also seems prices have finally reached a level that spurs demand, as export sales data has picked up in recent days/weeks. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are up 6-7 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 7-8 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mostly higher as well, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 60 points.
Corn and wheat futures are higher to start Thursday on news that Russia hit grain silos in the Odessa Port in Ukraine with a missile attack overnight. Two people were reported injured, but details were otherwise scarce.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending August 8th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 300k-550k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales in a range of 100k-500k mt’s.
New crop corn sales are estimated between 150k-800k mt’s, new crop soybean sales are estimated between 400k-1.0 mil mt’s, and new crop wheat sales are estimated between 200k-500k mt’s.
NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) will be out at 11am central time this morning with their July crush report. The report is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 182.367 mil bu’s, which would be up 3.9% from June, and up 5.2% from July 2023. If realized, this would also be the largest July crush figure on record.
Same group sees soybean oil stocks as of July 31 at 1.608 bil lbs., which would be down 0.8% from last month, but up 5.3% from July of last year.
The Rosario Grains Exchange said in a weekly report that Argentina’s 2023/24 corn crop will likely reach 49 mmt’s, up from their previous estimate of 47.5 mmt’s. This compares to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate of 46.5 mmt’s and the USDA at 50.0 mmt’s.
The US labor market will again be in focus for equity traders this morning, as another round of weekly jobless data is on today’s slate. Retail sales data is also scheduled for this morning and looks to give an update on the US consumer.
Ernesto has strengthened into a category 1 hurricane and is expected to move through the area of the Bermuda Islands in the Atlantic by Friday into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds were recorded at 85mph as the storm made its way through Puerto Rico yesterday.
The Western Corn Belt again saw good rains on Wednesday, with 24-hour satellite data showing anywhere from 0.1 to 2″ generally speaking, with locally heavier amounts for areas of the Dakota’s, MN, IA, MO and NW IL.
And radar data this morning shows another system curling around a low-pressure cell providing additional rainfall to the same areas and into the Great Lakes states this morning and through the day today. Models see the chance for up to 3″ by Saturday for parts of IA/IL/WI.
Overnight changes were otherwise mostly limited to the same week two gyrations that have been seen all week, as the models shifted slightly cooler again in the eastern half of the Corn Belt into the end of August. Precipitation in this time period continues to be seen below average for areas from SW TX to northern MN/WI.
Heat creeps back into the western Corn Belt over the weekend but is seen abating again by the middle part of next week. And amid decent moisture the last 48 hours, this heat does not look to produce a lot of concern for finishing corn and soybean crops.
Have a great day.
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