Happy Friday.
Grain markets are mixed to lower once again this morning, although corn and soybeans are lower on more rain moving through the Midwest overnight. Corn futures are down 3 cents, while beans futures are 9 to 10 cents weaker. Wheat is steady. Old crop grain continues to move from the producer as harvest nears. This is continuing the pressure on domestic basis and nearby spreads. Both December corn and November beans are trading just a few pennies above their recent lows set earlier this week. The November bean chart shows an RSI this morning near 26, while December corn has an RSI near 33. The outside markets are mostly lower with both equity futures and the dollar weaker this morning. Crude oil futures are down over $2.00 this morning on continued concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
The commitment of traders’ report will be out this afternoon, and it is expected to show continued selling by the funds in soybeans. The trade currently estimates the soybean fund at a new record short position. See table below. The large fund corn short has been reduced in recent weeks, but it has been offset by increased farmer selling.
Rain moved through the Midwest again overnight. The Bloomington, IL area had nearly 2 inches of rain over the last 24 hours, the best total rain event in this area in weeks. The rains this week across the corn belt will aid in putting the finishing touches on the corn and soybean crops. Over the next 10 days, the Midwest will favor dry continues, which will help with maturity. Temps will be warm in the west and trend cooler than average in the east.
The Pro Farmer crop tour begins Monday. The tour has an eastern and western leg that will cover 7 states. The two groups will conclude in Rochester, Minnesota on Thursday evening, August 22nd. Pro Farmer will then put out an official national production estimate for corn and soybeans on Friday afternoon, which is based loosely on the tour results.
The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) recently cleared the way for a potential rail strike that could begin as soon as Aug. 22 if the Canadian railways fail to reach an agreement with unions. The CIRB ruled that a work stoppage on the Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railways would not cause an immediate threat to public health and safety. The agency had put a potential strike on hold while it evaluated whether certain commodities must keep moving during a strike or lockout.
Egypt has not yet purchased any sizable wheat supplies in ongoing direct talks with supplies. Recently, the country only bought 280,000 tons out of a targeted 3.8 MMT. Egypt is still considering whether to continue with direct purchases or revert back to the traditional tender process.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains is corn estimate for the country at 46.5 MMT. They estimated corn harvest at 98% complete. The USDA estimated the ARG corn crop at 50 MMT on Monday.
Secretary of AG Tom Vilsack stated at an ethanol conference in Nebraska this week that the USDA is pushing to ease tax credit requirements regarding crops used for the production of renewable fuels. The current guidance for 40B got pushback from producers due to its requirement of a bundling of practices that producers viewed as impractical. Guidance for the new regulation of 45Z is still being waited on, which is hoped to give more flexibility for producers.
China announced it will monitor people and goods entering the country for mpox for the next six months. The WHO on Wednesday declared mpox a global public health emergency, following a recent outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Thailand elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its new prime minister this morning. She is the country’s 2nd female prime minister and its youngest ever at 37 years old.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-16-2024
Happy Friday.
Grain markets are mixed to lower once again this morning, although corn and soybeans are lower on more rain moving through the Midwest overnight. Corn futures are down 3 cents, while beans futures are 9 to 10 cents weaker. Wheat is steady. Old crop grain continues to move from the producer as harvest nears. This is continuing the pressure on domestic basis and nearby spreads. Both December corn and November beans are trading just a few pennies above their recent lows set earlier this week. The November bean chart shows an RSI this morning near 26, while December corn has an RSI near 33. The outside markets are mostly lower with both equity futures and the dollar weaker this morning. Crude oil futures are down over $2.00 this morning on continued concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
The commitment of traders’ report will be out this afternoon, and it is expected to show continued selling by the funds in soybeans. The trade currently estimates the soybean fund at a new record short position. See table below. The large fund corn short has been reduced in recent weeks, but it has been offset by increased farmer selling.
Rain moved through the Midwest again overnight. The Bloomington, IL area had nearly 2 inches of rain over the last 24 hours, the best total rain event in this area in weeks. The rains this week across the corn belt will aid in putting the finishing touches on the corn and soybean crops. Over the next 10 days, the Midwest will favor dry continues, which will help with maturity. Temps will be warm in the west and trend cooler than average in the east.
The Pro Farmer crop tour begins Monday. The tour has an eastern and western leg that will cover 7 states. The two groups will conclude in Rochester, Minnesota on Thursday evening, August 22nd. Pro Farmer will then put out an official national production estimate for corn and soybeans on Friday afternoon, which is based loosely on the tour results.
The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) recently cleared the way for a potential rail strike that could begin as soon as Aug. 22 if the Canadian railways fail to reach an agreement with unions. The CIRB ruled that a work stoppage on the Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railways would not cause an immediate threat to public health and safety. The agency had put a potential strike on hold while it evaluated whether certain commodities must keep moving during a strike or lockout.
Egypt has not yet purchased any sizable wheat supplies in ongoing direct talks with supplies. Recently, the country only bought 280,000 tons out of a targeted 3.8 MMT. Egypt is still considering whether to continue with direct purchases or revert back to the traditional tender process.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains is corn estimate for the country at 46.5 MMT. They estimated corn harvest at 98% complete. The USDA estimated the ARG corn crop at 50 MMT on Monday.
Secretary of AG Tom Vilsack stated at an ethanol conference in Nebraska this week that the USDA is pushing to ease tax credit requirements regarding crops used for the production of renewable fuels. The current guidance for 40B got pushback from producers due to its requirement of a bundling of practices that producers viewed as impractical. Guidance for the new regulation of 45Z is still being waited on, which is hoped to give more flexibility for producers.
China announced it will monitor people and goods entering the country for mpox for the next six months. The WHO on Wednesday declared mpox a global public health emergency, following a recent outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Thailand elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its new prime minister this morning. She is the country’s 2nd female prime minister and its youngest ever at 37 years old.
Have a great day.
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