Grain Comments: 08-20-24

Good morning. Turn-around-Tuesday so far in the overnight trade to start day two of the week, as ag markets are marginally lower. Choppy trade likely persists through the week this week, as daily updates from the Pro Farmer crop tour on social media will produce inter-day market gyrations. Forecasts into the end of the month continue to offer some semblance of support, but the time for a weather-based rally in the US is quickly running out. Corn and soybeans should also see support from the fact that cash prices are competitive on the global marketplace into Fall. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are down 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is also down 1-2 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.

Today’s Reports: API Energy Stocks

• Monday afternoon’s crop progress update again showed little change from the week prior as of Sunday, August 18th. Both corn and soybean conditions in the g/ex category were unchanged for the second consecutive week at 67% and 68% respectively.

• At the state level, biggest improvements in corn conditions were seen in Michigan (+12%), Indiana (+4%) and Nebraska (+3%). Biggest declines on the week were seen in North Dakota (-8%), Colorado (-5%) and Ohio (-5%).

• For soybeans, states with the most improvement over the past week were Michigan (+4%), Indiana (+4%), Missouri (+3%), and Nebraska (+3%). Biggest declines were seen in Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Tennessee, which were all down 4%.

• Corn silking has reached 97% as of Sunday, while the amount of the crop in the dough stage has reached 74%. 30% of the crop is dented, while 5% of the crop is mature in the first maturity reading of the season. Other than silking, these are all ahead of their current five-year averages.

• Soybeans blooming reached 95%, which is right on the five-year average; the amount of the crop setting pods was seen at 81%, 1% above the five-year average.

• For wheat, winter wheat harvest was estimated to have reached 96% complete in the last week, while spring wheat harvest advanced 13% to 31% complete. Spring wheat conditions in the g/ex category were up 1% from last week at 73%.

• Pro Farmer estimated Ohio corn yield at 183.29 bu/acre based on samples taken from 115 fields. This is up marginally from last year’s 183.94 estimate, and also above the three-year average of 181.06. Soybeans in a 3’x3′ plot averaged 1,230 pods, which is below last year’s 1,253 but above the three-year average of 1,193.

• Same group estimated South Dakota corn yield at 156.5 bu/acre, based on 77 fields sampled; this below last year’s 157.4 estimate, but still well above the three-year average of 142.4. Soybean pod counts averaged 1,026 pods in 76 samples, which is up from last year’s 1,013 and the three year average of 960.4.

• Scouts today will continue sampling fields, with results from Indiana and Nebraska due out this evening. Talking heads on social media seem to think yesterday’s fields should have yielded the worst conditions, with better prospects likely to be found the rest of the week.