Good morning.
Another low volume night of trade was had at the CBOT, though prices for corn and soybeans are marginally higher as of this writing. As we’ve mentioned earlier this week, choppy trade will likely be the name of the game until combines start rolling and the markets get actual yield data. We would also remind, however, that the trade has spent most of the summer pricing in record large crops, which means unless yields are far and above the already lofty expectations, significant downward price movement due to the confirmation of USDA’s crop estimates alone is unlikely. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 5-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-45 points. Outside markets are mostly higher as well, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 16th is expected to show production for the week in a range of 1.050-1.082 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 23.000-23.504 mil bbls. Both figures on average would be slightly below recent weeks’ data.
Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour saw scouts finish sampling fields in both Nebraska and Indiana; For Nebraska, they estimated corn yield at 173.25 bu/acre, which is above last year’s estimate of 167.22, and also above the three-year average of 169.37.
Soybean pod counts in Nebraska averaged 1,172.5 pods in a 3’x3′ plot; this is also above last year’s estimate of 1,160.0 and above the three-year average of 1,150.0.
In Indiana, the tour estimated corn yield at 187.54 bu/acre, which is up from last year’s 180.89 and also above the three-year average of 184.07.
Soybean pod counts in the state averaged 1,409.0, which is again above last year’s estimate of 1,310.0 and also above the three-year average of 1,238.6. Of note, this is the highest estimated soybean pod count in Indiana since 2002.
Canada’s AAFC (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) released monthly crop production estimates on Tuesday; the group projected total grain and oilseed production at 86.947 mmt’s, down from its July estimate of 88.69 mmt’s.
All wheat production was estimated at 34.357 mmt’s, down from 35.428 mmt’s in July, while corn production was seen 100k mt’s higher than last month at 15 mmt’s. Canola production estimates were unchanged at 18.628 mmt’s.
These numbers come ahead of StatsCanada’s monthly supply and demand report, which is due out a week from today on August 28th.
Private Black Sea crop consultancy SovEcon raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 82.9 mmt’s to 83.3 mmt’s; same group cut their estimate of Russia’s corn crop to 11.9 mmt’s from 13.4 mmt’s previously, which would be the lowest level since 2018.
In Ukraine, grain exports in the season that began July 1 reached 6 mmt’s as of August 21st, up from 3.6 mmt’s in the same time period last year. The total includes 2.8 mmt’s of wheat, 2.2 mmt’s of corn, and 1 mmt of barley.
Canadian federal Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon told news outlets on Tuesday that “real issues” remained between the Teamsters Union and Canada’s two main rail companies. A shutdown of operations continues to loom just 24 hours from now unless an agreement can be reached.
Equity markets will see a busy end to the week start today with revisions to non-farm payroll numbers in the year through March; economists see the revisions cutting at least 600,000 jobs from what is currently estimated, or some 50,000 jobs per month.
This data precedes the Fed’s Jackson Hole Summit, which is set to kick off on Thursday, and also FOMC minutes from the group’s July monetary policy meeting, which are due out this afternoon.
Former President Barrack Obama, and his wife Michelle, highlighted day two of the DNC convention in Chicago. The former leader gave support to current democratic nominee Kamala Harris in saying her candidacy had ‘returned hope to national politics.’
Weather forecasts trended slightly drier overnight for the rest of this week, though still advertise ridge-riding thunderstorms having the chance to impact areas of the four-corner states and northern Plains through the end of the week. The rest of the Corn Belt remains dry through Friday.
Models do see better rainfall chances through next week, though confidence in the week-two forecast remains low. The EU and GFS are significantly different in their projections of both rainfall amounts and locations through August 30th, with the EU keeping the majority of its rainfall north of the US/Canada border.
While rainfall continues to be sporadic, the temperature situation remains mostly beneficial for finishing crops. Heat remains limited to the south and southwest through Friday, before an expansion of the high-pressure ridge causes a warm-up in the central US.
However, models don’t see the heat lasting as another low-pressure trough is expected to again bring cooler air into the Midwest by the middle/end of next week. Like the week-two precipitation forecasts, this will need monitoring into next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-21-2024
Good morning.
Another low volume night of trade was had at the CBOT, though prices for corn and soybeans are marginally higher as of this writing. As we’ve mentioned earlier this week, choppy trade will likely be the name of the game until combines start rolling and the markets get actual yield data. We would also remind, however, that the trade has spent most of the summer pricing in record large crops, which means unless yields are far and above the already lofty expectations, significant downward price movement due to the confirmation of USDA’s crop estimates alone is unlikely. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 5-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-45 points. Outside markets are mostly higher as well, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 16th is expected to show production for the week in a range of 1.050-1.082 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 23.000-23.504 mil bbls. Both figures on average would be slightly below recent weeks’ data.
Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour saw scouts finish sampling fields in both Nebraska and Indiana; For Nebraska, they estimated corn yield at 173.25 bu/acre, which is above last year’s estimate of 167.22, and also above the three-year average of 169.37.
Soybean pod counts in Nebraska averaged 1,172.5 pods in a 3’x3′ plot; this is also above last year’s estimate of 1,160.0 and above the three-year average of 1,150.0.
In Indiana, the tour estimated corn yield at 187.54 bu/acre, which is up from last year’s 180.89 and also above the three-year average of 184.07.
Soybean pod counts in the state averaged 1,409.0, which is again above last year’s estimate of 1,310.0 and also above the three-year average of 1,238.6. Of note, this is the highest estimated soybean pod count in Indiana since 2002.
Canada’s AAFC (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) released monthly crop production estimates on Tuesday; the group projected total grain and oilseed production at 86.947 mmt’s, down from its July estimate of 88.69 mmt’s.
All wheat production was estimated at 34.357 mmt’s, down from 35.428 mmt’s in July, while corn production was seen 100k mt’s higher than last month at 15 mmt’s. Canola production estimates were unchanged at 18.628 mmt’s.
These numbers come ahead of StatsCanada’s monthly supply and demand report, which is due out a week from today on August 28th.
Private Black Sea crop consultancy SovEcon raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 82.9 mmt’s to 83.3 mmt’s; same group cut their estimate of Russia’s corn crop to 11.9 mmt’s from 13.4 mmt’s previously, which would be the lowest level since 2018.
In Ukraine, grain exports in the season that began July 1 reached 6 mmt’s as of August 21st, up from 3.6 mmt’s in the same time period last year. The total includes 2.8 mmt’s of wheat, 2.2 mmt’s of corn, and 1 mmt of barley.
Canadian federal Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon told news outlets on Tuesday that “real issues” remained between the Teamsters Union and Canada’s two main rail companies. A shutdown of operations continues to loom just 24 hours from now unless an agreement can be reached.
Equity markets will see a busy end to the week start today with revisions to non-farm payroll numbers in the year through March; economists see the revisions cutting at least 600,000 jobs from what is currently estimated, or some 50,000 jobs per month.
This data precedes the Fed’s Jackson Hole Summit, which is set to kick off on Thursday, and also FOMC minutes from the group’s July monetary policy meeting, which are due out this afternoon.
Former President Barrack Obama, and his wife Michelle, highlighted day two of the DNC convention in Chicago. The former leader gave support to current democratic nominee Kamala Harris in saying her candidacy had ‘returned hope to national politics.’
Weather forecasts trended slightly drier overnight for the rest of this week, though still advertise ridge-riding thunderstorms having the chance to impact areas of the four-corner states and northern Plains through the end of the week. The rest of the Corn Belt remains dry through Friday.
Models do see better rainfall chances through next week, though confidence in the week-two forecast remains low. The EU and GFS are significantly different in their projections of both rainfall amounts and locations through August 30th, with the EU keeping the majority of its rainfall north of the US/Canada border.
While rainfall continues to be sporadic, the temperature situation remains mostly beneficial for finishing crops. Heat remains limited to the south and southwest through Friday, before an expansion of the high-pressure ridge causes a warm-up in the central US.
However, models don’t see the heat lasting as another low-pressure trough is expected to again bring cooler air into the Midwest by the middle/end of next week. Like the week-two precipitation forecasts, this will need monitoring into next week.
Have a great day.
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