Good morning.
Soybeans are leading the ag markets to the downside to start Thursday, with corn and wheat futures in tow. Yields have continued to trend higher according to the Pro Farmer crop tour, with their final results due out tomorrow. The tour’s corn yield estimate at this point is more likely to confirm the USDA’s current lofty estimates, rather than give reason to raise them. As we’ve said all week, large traders and managed money will wait for actual combine data before placing any sizeable new bets, regardless of what Pro Farmer says on Friday. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 6-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 3-4 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 5 points. Outside markets are quiet/higher, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 25 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 75 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending August 15th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 100k-300k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales in a range of 100k-400k mt’s.
New crop corn sales are seen between 500k-1.025 mil mt’s, new crop soybean sales are seen between 800k-1.350 mil mt’s, and new crop wheat sales are seen between 250k-500k mt’s.
Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour saw scouts in Illinois and western Iowa; for Illinois the tour estimated corn yield at 204.14, which is above last year’s 193.72 and also above the three-year average of 193.58. This is a new high estimate for the tour, topping 2014’s record, and was based on 197 samples.
Soybean pod counts in Illinois averaged 1,419.1 pods per 3’x3′ plot. This compares to last year’s 1,270.6, and the three-year average of 1,266.7. This is the tour’s highest estimated soybean pod count for Illinois since 2000.
In western Iowa (Iowa’s full results will be released Thursday evening) scouts reported average to above average yield potential in the west central and southwest districts, while the northwest was seen below average due to too much early rain.
Similar story on soybean pod counts, as early rains in the northwest caused pod counts to be just average, while the central and southwest districts were well above recent tour averages.
Talks between the Teamsters Union and Canada’s two biggest rail lines failed to reach an agreement in the last 24 hours, as more than 9,000 employees at the CN and CPKC rail lines were locked out early Thursday morning.
Ratings agency Moody’s estimates the shutdown could cost Canada as much as C$341 million per day. A spokesperson from Canadian Pacific said that as of yesterday, the union has continued to make unrealistic demands that would hinder the railway’s ability to serve its customers.
Following yesterday’s FOMC minutes from the July Fed meeting, most investors expect Jerome Powell to begin laying the groundwork for rate cuts in September at the Jackson Hole economic summit on Friday.
Otherwise, weekly jobs data will be on the docket this morning; the numbers come just a day after the US Labor Department revised payrolls significantly lower, showing the biggest revision since 2009. The data indicated the labor market likely started cooling far sooner than was originally thought.
Rinse and repeat on Midwest weather over the next few days, as today and tomorrow’s forecast will be nearly identical to what was seen yesterday. Temps stay well below average for another 48 hours, before heat begins to return starting Saturday.
Heat then looks to linger through the eastern half of the country into the middle of next week, but models see a low-pressure trough again sweeping through the area and returning temps to near normal by the first week of September. Rains remain limited to the southwest and far northern plains into the weekend.
Next week, the exact location of the ridge determines moisture locations, as ridge-riding thunderstorms look to impact parts of the central Corn Belt. Models are in disagreement on exact amounts/locations due to this feature.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-22-2024
Good morning.
Soybeans are leading the ag markets to the downside to start Thursday, with corn and wheat futures in tow. Yields have continued to trend higher according to the Pro Farmer crop tour, with their final results due out tomorrow. The tour’s corn yield estimate at this point is more likely to confirm the USDA’s current lofty estimates, rather than give reason to raise them. As we’ve said all week, large traders and managed money will wait for actual combine data before placing any sizeable new bets, regardless of what Pro Farmer says on Friday. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 6-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 3-4 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 5 points. Outside markets are quiet/higher, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 25 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 75 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending August 15th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 100k-300k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales in a range of 100k-400k mt’s.
New crop corn sales are seen between 500k-1.025 mil mt’s, new crop soybean sales are seen between 800k-1.350 mil mt’s, and new crop wheat sales are seen between 250k-500k mt’s.
Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour saw scouts in Illinois and western Iowa; for Illinois the tour estimated corn yield at 204.14, which is above last year’s 193.72 and also above the three-year average of 193.58. This is a new high estimate for the tour, topping 2014’s record, and was based on 197 samples.
Soybean pod counts in Illinois averaged 1,419.1 pods per 3’x3′ plot. This compares to last year’s 1,270.6, and the three-year average of 1,266.7. This is the tour’s highest estimated soybean pod count for Illinois since 2000.
In western Iowa (Iowa’s full results will be released Thursday evening) scouts reported average to above average yield potential in the west central and southwest districts, while the northwest was seen below average due to too much early rain.
Similar story on soybean pod counts, as early rains in the northwest caused pod counts to be just average, while the central and southwest districts were well above recent tour averages.
Talks between the Teamsters Union and Canada’s two biggest rail lines failed to reach an agreement in the last 24 hours, as more than 9,000 employees at the CN and CPKC rail lines were locked out early Thursday morning.
Ratings agency Moody’s estimates the shutdown could cost Canada as much as C$341 million per day. A spokesperson from Canadian Pacific said that as of yesterday, the union has continued to make unrealistic demands that would hinder the railway’s ability to serve its customers.
Following yesterday’s FOMC minutes from the July Fed meeting, most investors expect Jerome Powell to begin laying the groundwork for rate cuts in September at the Jackson Hole economic summit on Friday.
Otherwise, weekly jobs data will be on the docket this morning; the numbers come just a day after the US Labor Department revised payrolls significantly lower, showing the biggest revision since 2009. The data indicated the labor market likely started cooling far sooner than was originally thought.
Rinse and repeat on Midwest weather over the next few days, as today and tomorrow’s forecast will be nearly identical to what was seen yesterday. Temps stay well below average for another 48 hours, before heat begins to return starting Saturday.
Heat then looks to linger through the eastern half of the country into the middle of next week, but models see a low-pressure trough again sweeping through the area and returning temps to near normal by the first week of September. Rains remain limited to the southwest and far northern plains into the weekend.
Next week, the exact location of the ridge determines moisture locations, as ridge-riding thunderstorms look to impact parts of the central Corn Belt. Models are in disagreement on exact amounts/locations due to this feature.
Have a great day.
View All News >