Good morning.
Just one more week of August left, which will bring an end to another marketing year. Grain prices are mixed this morning with corn steady, soybeans up 3 to 4 cents, and wheat down 4 cents. The crop tour is over and now the trade waits for Pro Farmer’s national estimates later this afternoon. The Canadian rail strike has been ordered off by the Canadian Government and one of the two rail lines is returning to work today. Equity futures are higher this morning with the dollar flat. Crude is up $1.00. The outside markets await the FED Chairman’s comments later this morning.
Going into today, Sept corn is showing a weekly gain of 1 cent. November beans are up 4 1/2 cents on the week. Sept wheat is down 19 cents for the week. Support for November beans continues at Monday’s low of $9.55. Support for September corn is at $3.70.
Day 4 of the Pro Farmer crop tour saw good yields in Iowa and variable yields in Minnesota. The tour put the Iowa corn yield at 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s estimate of 182.8 bpa. The USDA currently has Iowa at 209 bpa. This year’s Iowa corn estimate was a record high in the 32-year history of the tour. In Minnesota, the tour estimated the corn yield at 164.9 bpa, down from last year’s tour result of 181.3 bpa. The USDA has Minnesota at 185 bpa.
For soybeans on the tour, Iowa pod counts were estimated up 10% from last year. Minnesota was estimated to have pod counts that were up 5% from a year ago.
Pro Farmer will release a national production estimate for corn and soybeans early this afternoon. A reminder that the tour is just one piece of its national production estimates.
September options expire today. First notice day for September futures is next Friday, Aug 30th. Outstanding longs in September will be reported to the CME after the close on Thursday, August 29th.
Rain is moving through Kansas again this morning. The majority of the Midwest will be dry over the next 7 days. Temperatures will be warm through next week. The 8-to-14-day forecast brings more normal temps through most of the Midwest. Rain chances in that period will be normal.
The cattle on feed report for August will be released at 2 p.m. central time today. On-feed numbers are expected to be on par with a year ago. Placements are estimated to be up 4% from last year. Marketings are estimated to be up 8% from last year.
The Canadian Government intervened last yesterday afternoon in regard to the rail strike. The Government imposed binding arbitration on all parties and extended the current collective agreements. The Teamsters Union announced late last night that the CN would begin returning to work this morning. The CPKC is waiting until on an order from the Canadian Industrial Relations Board. They have a meeting with that group this morning. While the work stoppage was limited to one or two days, it is expected to take a week or more to get the rail lines caught back up.
Old crop grain continues to move from the producer as the calendar to new crop narrows in quickly. This is keeping a lid on nearby futures and basis. Decision day for a large chunk of old crop grain looms next week.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in its weekly report, kept the Argentine corn production estimate the same at 46.5 MMT. The Exchange estimated corn harvest at 98.7% complete. As reference, the USDA’s production estimate for ARG is at 50 MMT.
FED Chairman Powell will deliver his policy speech today at 9 a.m. central time in Jackson Hole. More attention than usual will be paid to this speech as the market looks to gather any evidence of the FED’s plan on interest rates this fall. The next policy-setting meeting for the FED is September 17/18. The CME FedWatch tool is currently forecasting a 73% chance of a 1/4 point cut at that meeting.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-23-2024
Good morning.
Just one more week of August left, which will bring an end to another marketing year. Grain prices are mixed this morning with corn steady, soybeans up 3 to 4 cents, and wheat down 4 cents. The crop tour is over and now the trade waits for Pro Farmer’s national estimates later this afternoon. The Canadian rail strike has been ordered off by the Canadian Government and one of the two rail lines is returning to work today. Equity futures are higher this morning with the dollar flat. Crude is up $1.00. The outside markets await the FED Chairman’s comments later this morning.
Going into today, Sept corn is showing a weekly gain of 1 cent. November beans are up 4 1/2 cents on the week. Sept wheat is down 19 cents for the week. Support for November beans continues at Monday’s low of $9.55. Support for September corn is at $3.70.
Day 4 of the Pro Farmer crop tour saw good yields in Iowa and variable yields in Minnesota. The tour put the Iowa corn yield at 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s estimate of 182.8 bpa. The USDA currently has Iowa at 209 bpa. This year’s Iowa corn estimate was a record high in the 32-year history of the tour. In Minnesota, the tour estimated the corn yield at 164.9 bpa, down from last year’s tour result of 181.3 bpa. The USDA has Minnesota at 185 bpa.
For soybeans on the tour, Iowa pod counts were estimated up 10% from last year. Minnesota was estimated to have pod counts that were up 5% from a year ago.
Pro Farmer will release a national production estimate for corn and soybeans early this afternoon. A reminder that the tour is just one piece of its national production estimates.
September options expire today. First notice day for September futures is next Friday, Aug 30th. Outstanding longs in September will be reported to the CME after the close on Thursday, August 29th.
Rain is moving through Kansas again this morning. The majority of the Midwest will be dry over the next 7 days. Temperatures will be warm through next week. The 8-to-14-day forecast brings more normal temps through most of the Midwest. Rain chances in that period will be normal.
The cattle on feed report for August will be released at 2 p.m. central time today. On-feed numbers are expected to be on par with a year ago. Placements are estimated to be up 4% from last year. Marketings are estimated to be up 8% from last year.
The Canadian Government intervened last yesterday afternoon in regard to the rail strike. The Government imposed binding arbitration on all parties and extended the current collective agreements. The Teamsters Union announced late last night that the CN would begin returning to work this morning. The CPKC is waiting until on an order from the Canadian Industrial Relations Board. They have a meeting with that group this morning. While the work stoppage was limited to one or two days, it is expected to take a week or more to get the rail lines caught back up.
Old crop grain continues to move from the producer as the calendar to new crop narrows in quickly. This is keeping a lid on nearby futures and basis. Decision day for a large chunk of old crop grain looms next week.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in its weekly report, kept the Argentine corn production estimate the same at 46.5 MMT. The Exchange estimated corn harvest at 98.7% complete. As reference, the USDA’s production estimate for ARG is at 50 MMT.
FED Chairman Powell will deliver his policy speech today at 9 a.m. central time in Jackson Hole. More attention than usual will be paid to this speech as the market looks to gather any evidence of the FED’s plan on interest rates this fall. The next policy-setting meeting for the FED is September 17/18. The CME FedWatch tool is currently forecasting a 73% chance of a 1/4 point cut at that meeting.
Have a great day.
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