Good morning.
New week at the CBOT has started lower, as the feed grains have made new contract lows again and soybean futures are just a few cents away from their contract lows. Pro Farmer data last week was maybe slightly supportive to corn and slightly negative to soybeans, but the trade is aware their estimate is not the ‘end-all-be-all’ when it comes to final yields. Otherwise, the on again, off again rail strike situation in Canada, along with a weather forecast that continues to feature below average temperatures into the first week of September, has produced selling in the ag space on Monday. Corn futures this morning are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are 7-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up around $2/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are both near unchanged.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed for the week ending August 20th fund traders were net-buyers of 20,303 Chicago wheat contracts, while being net-sellers of 8,889 contracts of corn and net-sellers of 8,311 contracts of soybeans.
This now makes managed money short 257,896 contracts of corn, short 182,758 contracts of soybeans, and short 52,985 contracts of Chicago wheat.
In soy products, funds were net-sellers of 4,115 contracts of soybean oil, and net-buyers of 2,813 contracts of soybean meal. This makes them now short 84,388 contracts in soybean oil, and long 3,592 contracts in soybean meal.
Pro Farmer on Friday estimated the national average corn yield at 181.1 bu/acre and estimated the national average soybean yield at 54.9 bu/acre. The corn yield is slightly below the USDA (183.1), while the soybean yield is slightly above the USDA (53.2).
Also, out Friday was the cattle on feed report for August; the report showed cattle on feed as of August 1 at 11.095 mil head, which was up 0.3% from last year. Placements at 1.702 mil were up 5.8% from last year, and marketings at 1.855 mil were up 7.7% from last year.
Along with cattle on feed was monthly cold storage, which showed that beef supplies at 407.127 mil lbs. were down 3% from last year, while pork supplies at 450.704 mil lbs. are down 4.3% and poultry supplies at 1.22 bil lbs. are down 5.3%.
According to private consulting firm AgRural, corn planting in central/southern Brazil has reached 4.2% complete as of last Thursday, which compares to 7.5% on the same day last year. Mid-August frosts were cited as reason for the minor delay.
Over the weekend, Canada’s Industrial Relations Board agreed to order workers from the country’s two biggest rail companies back to the job starting today, following news on Friday that strikes would again happen this morning.
In a news release, officials from the CN said that the ruling “effectively ends the unpredictability that has been negatively impacting supply chains for months.” The next update as of now looks to be an arbitration meeting on Thursday, August 29th.
US federally inspected beef production in the week ending August 24th was seen at 514 mil lbs., up 1.4% from last week. Pork production was down 0.5% at 526 mil lbs. For the year, beef production is down 1.3% and pork production is up 1.5%.
Tensions in the Middle East over the weekend reached a new level, as Israel targeted thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers in Lebanon in what it called a “preemptive strike”. Hezbollah fired more than 200 projectiles in response, though limited damage was reported. This has crude oil futures higher this morning.
Following Fed Chair Powell’s comments in Wyoming last week that all but assured a September rate cut, equity markets this week will be focused on GDP data for Q2 due out Thursday, as well as the PCE inflation report for July that is due out on Friday.
Weekend weather was mostly dry across the Corn Belt, though most of the state of Missouri picked up anywhere from 0.1-1″ according to 48-hour satellite data. Parts of southeast South Dakota also saw scattered precipitation.
For this week, models are in fair agreement on mostly continued dry conditions, with thunderstorm activity on the periphery of the high-pressure ridge providing the best moisture chances for parts of the northern Corn Belt. Areas south of central MN/WI are predicted to receive up to just 1.5″ between now and Saturday.
Temps in the east stay well above average this week, with highs continuing to hit the mid/upper 90’s through Friday. Low pressure from the west though again returns temps to more seasonal levels by the coming weekend.
Week two forecasts on Monday feature average to well below average temps for the central and eastern parts of the country, while moisture is seen favoring the south/southeast. The CPC sees more average rainfall chances as far north as central IL, while GFS and EU models keep moisture more to the south. This will need monitoring this week.
No update over the weekend for South America, as the dry season in Brazil continues to hang on. Temps here are seen average to slightly above over the next 10 days, while Argentina remains cold this week before slightly warming into next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-26-2024
Good morning.
New week at the CBOT has started lower, as the feed grains have made new contract lows again and soybean futures are just a few cents away from their contract lows. Pro Farmer data last week was maybe slightly supportive to corn and slightly negative to soybeans, but the trade is aware their estimate is not the ‘end-all-be-all’ when it comes to final yields. Otherwise, the on again, off again rail strike situation in Canada, along with a weather forecast that continues to feature below average temperatures into the first week of September, has produced selling in the ag space on Monday. Corn futures this morning are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are 7-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up around $2/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are both near unchanged.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed for the week ending August 20th fund traders were net-buyers of 20,303 Chicago wheat contracts, while being net-sellers of 8,889 contracts of corn and net-sellers of 8,311 contracts of soybeans.
This now makes managed money short 257,896 contracts of corn, short 182,758 contracts of soybeans, and short 52,985 contracts of Chicago wheat.
In soy products, funds were net-sellers of 4,115 contracts of soybean oil, and net-buyers of 2,813 contracts of soybean meal. This makes them now short 84,388 contracts in soybean oil, and long 3,592 contracts in soybean meal.
Pro Farmer on Friday estimated the national average corn yield at 181.1 bu/acre and estimated the national average soybean yield at 54.9 bu/acre. The corn yield is slightly below the USDA (183.1), while the soybean yield is slightly above the USDA (53.2).
Also, out Friday was the cattle on feed report for August; the report showed cattle on feed as of August 1 at 11.095 mil head, which was up 0.3% from last year. Placements at 1.702 mil were up 5.8% from last year, and marketings at 1.855 mil were up 7.7% from last year.
Along with cattle on feed was monthly cold storage, which showed that beef supplies at 407.127 mil lbs. were down 3% from last year, while pork supplies at 450.704 mil lbs. are down 4.3% and poultry supplies at 1.22 bil lbs. are down 5.3%.
According to private consulting firm AgRural, corn planting in central/southern Brazil has reached 4.2% complete as of last Thursday, which compares to 7.5% on the same day last year. Mid-August frosts were cited as reason for the minor delay.
Over the weekend, Canada’s Industrial Relations Board agreed to order workers from the country’s two biggest rail companies back to the job starting today, following news on Friday that strikes would again happen this morning.
In a news release, officials from the CN said that the ruling “effectively ends the unpredictability that has been negatively impacting supply chains for months.” The next update as of now looks to be an arbitration meeting on Thursday, August 29th.
US federally inspected beef production in the week ending August 24th was seen at 514 mil lbs., up 1.4% from last week. Pork production was down 0.5% at 526 mil lbs. For the year, beef production is down 1.3% and pork production is up 1.5%.
Tensions in the Middle East over the weekend reached a new level, as Israel targeted thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers in Lebanon in what it called a “preemptive strike”. Hezbollah fired more than 200 projectiles in response, though limited damage was reported. This has crude oil futures higher this morning.
Following Fed Chair Powell’s comments in Wyoming last week that all but assured a September rate cut, equity markets this week will be focused on GDP data for Q2 due out Thursday, as well as the PCE inflation report for July that is due out on Friday.
Weekend weather was mostly dry across the Corn Belt, though most of the state of Missouri picked up anywhere from 0.1-1″ according to 48-hour satellite data. Parts of southeast South Dakota also saw scattered precipitation.
For this week, models are in fair agreement on mostly continued dry conditions, with thunderstorm activity on the periphery of the high-pressure ridge providing the best moisture chances for parts of the northern Corn Belt. Areas south of central MN/WI are predicted to receive up to just 1.5″ between now and Saturday.
Temps in the east stay well above average this week, with highs continuing to hit the mid/upper 90’s through Friday. Low pressure from the west though again returns temps to more seasonal levels by the coming weekend.
Week two forecasts on Monday feature average to well below average temps for the central and eastern parts of the country, while moisture is seen favoring the south/southeast. The CPC sees more average rainfall chances as far north as central IL, while GFS and EU models keep moisture more to the south. This will need monitoring this week.
No update over the weekend for South America, as the dry season in Brazil continues to hang on. Temps here are seen average to slightly above over the next 10 days, while Argentina remains cold this week before slightly warming into next week.
Have a great day.
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