Good morning.
Grain markets are higher to start the week with soybeans trading near unchanged. Corn and wheat are 2 to 3 cents higher. Bean oil is lower, while bean meal continues to move higher, up $5 to $6 this morning. Corn continues to find some support from trade ideas that the USDA is too high on yield. The EPA decision on SREs was viewed as less bearish than previously thought. Equity futures are slightly lower, following a surge on Friday due to Powell’s friendly comments towards a rate cut. Crude is slightly higher. This is the last trading week of August. It will mark first notice day for September futures and the end of the crop marketing year. A three-day weekend follows with no markets on Monday due to Labor Day.
The crop progress report is expected to show corn and soybean conditions as steady to slightly lower than last year. The natural maturation of the crop will be hard pressed to keep conditions this lofty, especially in those areas that have been dry recently. The attention will turn to maturity levels, which have been running on par with the 5-year averages.
Export inspections will be released this morning. With only two weeks remaining of inspection data this marketing year, the trade will be monitoring this weekly data with the USDA projections. When factoring in the census adjustments, inspections are on pace to meet the current projections released by the USDA in August. Those projections are 2.820 bbu for corn and 1.875 bbu. for soybeans.
Technically, corn closed higher on the weekly chart for the 2nd week in a row on Friday. December corn is nearing the 50-day moving average, which crosses today at $4.17 1/2. This line will serve as resistance early in the week. The overnight high for December corn was the highest trade since July 28th. November soybeans are showing an inside day so far, with resistance at Friday’s high of $10.62 3/4. November beans are trading at its highest levels since mid-June. Nearby meal continues to move higher with the September contract showing a $40 gain from the low in late July. The nearby meal spread continues to invert, with it trading at a $10 inverse overnight.
ProFarmer released its national yield estimates on Friday afternoon. They pegged the U.S. corn crop at 16.204 bbu., with a yield of 182.7 bpa. They put the bean crop at 4.246 bbu., with a yield of 53 bpa. As comparison, the USDA is 16.742 bbu. and 188.8 bpa on corn. The USDA is at 4.292 bbu. and 53.6 bpa on beans. If the USDA does not change corn yield in September, it would the largest gap between the USDA and ProFarmer since 2005.
Argentina is set to deliver another cargo of soybean meal to China, with the boat expected to load in mid-September. The first cargo of meal that Argentina loaded was diverted to another point in Asia.
The EPA ruled on 175 small refinery exemptions on Friday. Of the total, 63 were granted full exemptions, 77 partial exemptions, and 28 were denied. 7 were ruled ineligible. A decision to require larger refiners to compensate for the waivers is being delayed at this time. For those exempted small refineries that have already fulfilled their RFS obligation, the EPA will return those corresponding RINs retired by those small refineries. For all years prior to 2023, those RINS have expired and may not be used to comply with standards that are currently open. The change on past RINS was viewed as more positively towards biofuels versus what was expected prior the EPA announcement.
The cattle on feed report showed on-feed supplies down 2% from last year. Placements were down 6%, but the trade was expecting a 9% drop from a year ago. Marketings were as expected at 94% of a year ago. The report leans friendly to futures, but both live and feeder cattle finished with new highs again last Friday. Both charts show the RSI right at 70, which is overbought again.
The commitment of traders’ report showed the corn funds bought over 31K contracts for the week ended last Tuesday. The funds were buyers of nearly 35K, which resulted in a net position of near even. Wheat funds were sellers of nearly 9K contracts.
The DOW closed at record highs on Friday after FED Chair Powell opened the door for a rate cut as soon as next month. The FED meets on Sept. 16/17. He expressed concern that a worsening job market may push for a need to cut rates. The CME FedWatch currently shows an 85% chance of a rate cut in September, which is up from 75% prior to his speech. Equity futures are currently mixed.
The trading month ends on Friday. It also marks the end of another marketing year. First notice day for September futures is also Friday. Remaining September longs after the close on Thursday will be reported to the CME and could be at risk for delivery.
The weather forecast brings cooler weather through the Midwest this week. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. The forecast is also mainly dry for the Midwest. Heavy rain will impact the southern plains. The 8 to 14 forecast continues to advertise below normal temps for most of the Midwest. The western half of the corn belt is expected to see above normal precipitation during that timeframe.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-25-2025
Good morning.
Grain markets are higher to start the week with soybeans trading near unchanged. Corn and wheat are 2 to 3 cents higher. Bean oil is lower, while bean meal continues to move higher, up $5 to $6 this morning. Corn continues to find some support from trade ideas that the USDA is too high on yield. The EPA decision on SREs was viewed as less bearish than previously thought. Equity futures are slightly lower, following a surge on Friday due to Powell’s friendly comments towards a rate cut. Crude is slightly higher. This is the last trading week of August. It will mark first notice day for September futures and the end of the crop marketing year. A three-day weekend follows with no markets on Monday due to Labor Day.
The crop progress report is expected to show corn and soybean conditions as steady to slightly lower than last year. The natural maturation of the crop will be hard pressed to keep conditions this lofty, especially in those areas that have been dry recently. The attention will turn to maturity levels, which have been running on par with the 5-year averages.
Export inspections will be released this morning. With only two weeks remaining of inspection data this marketing year, the trade will be monitoring this weekly data with the USDA projections. When factoring in the census adjustments, inspections are on pace to meet the current projections released by the USDA in August. Those projections are 2.820 bbu for corn and 1.875 bbu. for soybeans.
Technically, corn closed higher on the weekly chart for the 2nd week in a row on Friday. December corn is nearing the 50-day moving average, which crosses today at $4.17 1/2. This line will serve as resistance early in the week. The overnight high for December corn was the highest trade since July 28th. November soybeans are showing an inside day so far, with resistance at Friday’s high of $10.62 3/4. November beans are trading at its highest levels since mid-June. Nearby meal continues to move higher with the September contract showing a $40 gain from the low in late July. The nearby meal spread continues to invert, with it trading at a $10 inverse overnight.
ProFarmer released its national yield estimates on Friday afternoon. They pegged the U.S. corn crop at 16.204 bbu., with a yield of 182.7 bpa. They put the bean crop at 4.246 bbu., with a yield of 53 bpa. As comparison, the USDA is 16.742 bbu. and 188.8 bpa on corn. The USDA is at 4.292 bbu. and 53.6 bpa on beans. If the USDA does not change corn yield in September, it would the largest gap between the USDA and ProFarmer since 2005.
Argentina is set to deliver another cargo of soybean meal to China, with the boat expected to load in mid-September. The first cargo of meal that Argentina loaded was diverted to another point in Asia.
The EPA ruled on 175 small refinery exemptions on Friday. Of the total, 63 were granted full exemptions, 77 partial exemptions, and 28 were denied. 7 were ruled ineligible. A decision to require larger refiners to compensate for the waivers is being delayed at this time. For those exempted small refineries that have already fulfilled their RFS obligation, the EPA will return those corresponding RINs retired by those small refineries. For all years prior to 2023, those RINS have expired and may not be used to comply with standards that are currently open. The change on past RINS was viewed as more positively towards biofuels versus what was expected prior the EPA announcement.
The cattle on feed report showed on-feed supplies down 2% from last year. Placements were down 6%, but the trade was expecting a 9% drop from a year ago. Marketings were as expected at 94% of a year ago. The report leans friendly to futures, but both live and feeder cattle finished with new highs again last Friday. Both charts show the RSI right at 70, which is overbought again.
The commitment of traders’ report showed the corn funds bought over 31K contracts for the week ended last Tuesday. The funds were buyers of nearly 35K, which resulted in a net position of near even. Wheat funds were sellers of nearly 9K contracts.
The DOW closed at record highs on Friday after FED Chair Powell opened the door for a rate cut as soon as next month. The FED meets on Sept. 16/17. He expressed concern that a worsening job market may push for a need to cut rates. The CME FedWatch currently shows an 85% chance of a rate cut in September, which is up from 75% prior to his speech. Equity futures are currently mixed.
The trading month ends on Friday. It also marks the end of another marketing year. First notice day for September futures is also Friday. Remaining September longs after the close on Thursday will be reported to the CME and could be at risk for delivery.
The weather forecast brings cooler weather through the Midwest this week. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. The forecast is also mainly dry for the Midwest. Heavy rain will impact the southern plains. The 8 to 14 forecast continues to advertise below normal temps for most of the Midwest. The western half of the corn belt is expected to see above normal precipitation during that timeframe.
Have a great day.
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