Good morning.
Overnight happenings at the CBOT have been limited mostly to the soy complex to start Tuesday, with the feed grain markets currently sitting near unchanged and having not seen a lot of volume through the night, while the beans are correcting yesterday’s losses and the products continue to see ongoing spread activity. Aside from the turn-around-Tuesday/dead-cat-bounce part of the bean trade this morning, soy prices are otherwise higher on news that a lower-ranking trade delegation from China will be visiting the US later this week for trade talks, a sign that at the very least, discussions are making some sort of progress. We continue to be skeptical of any sort of deal between the two sides without a meeting between Trump and Xi, but the lower level meetings are at least a signal that work is continuing to be done and continue to offer hope to the US farmer that a deal can be reached before exports shut off for the year in early 2026. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are trading mostly lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.10/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update for the week ending August 24th showed corn conditions holding steady on the week at 71% G/EX; at the state level OH improved 8% and CO and MI each improved 6%, while KY was down 4%, PA was down 3%, and IL, IA and ND were all down 2%. Soybean conditions, meanwhile, improved 1% on the week to 69% G/EX; at the state level, OH was up 6%, AR was up 5% and LA was up 4%, while KY fell 8% on the week, and IA was down 3%.
The report also showed 83% of the corn crop in dough stage compared to 72% last week and 83% last year, while 44% of the crop is dented compared to 44% last year and 7% of the crop is mature compared to 10% last year. For soybeans, 89% of the crop is setting pods compared to 88% last year and 4% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 6% last year.
Winter wheat harvest has all but wrapped up, with the report showing progress at 98% as of Sunday, while spring wheat harvest is seen at 53% complete, which is up from 36% last week and compares to 48% through the same week last year. Spring wheat conditions in the week fell 1% in the G/EX category to 49%.
Sources familiar with the situation are reporting that Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang is expected to be in Washington D.C. later this week to meet with US officials and business people regarding the ongoing trade dispute between his country and the US. Government officials told sources from Bloomberg that the trip was not part of a formal negotiating session, adding that Li was already in Canada on Monday and also that he was expected to meet with US Trade Representative Jameson Greer as part of the trip.
Other trade-related news for Tuesday includes reports from Indonesia’s trade office that the US had agreed in principle to exempt key commodities like palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from newly imposed 19% trade tariffs, and also reports from Bloomberg that US and Canadian officials would be meeting soon to hold additional discussions following Canada’s decision to remove some tariff restrictions on US goods last week.
The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS) said in a monthly update that hot and dry weather across southern and eastern Europe has significantly trimmed yield potential in these areas, while adding that crops in the west will likely be near average due to better weather through the growing season. The group pegged EU soft wheat yields at 6.15 tons/ha compared to 6.09 last month and the average of 5.77, while corn yields are seen at 6.93 tons/ha compared to 7.18 in July and the average of 7.10.
Private South American consulting firm AgRural said on Monday that safrinha corn harvest in Brazil’s center-south region has reached 98% complete as of last Thursday, which compares to 100% complete at the same time last year. The group also showed first crop corn planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 crop at 3.2% complete, which compares to 4.2% through the same date last year.
President Trump on Monday announced that he would be dismissing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook “immediately” due to allegation of mortgage fraud involving claims that Cook received favorable loans on two primary residencies. Cook has denied the claims and has refused to resign, while the legality of such a move is being questioned by those opposed to Trump. Should it be approved, this would mark the fourth Trump-appointed Fed Governor, giving him a majority on the board.
Weather forecasts for Tuesday continue to feature rains through the southern and western portions of the US the rest of this week and into the weekend, while the Corn Belt looks to continue holding in a drier pattern for the most part. The EU model this morning shows the possibility of 1-3″ of rainfall from KS/OK to AL/GA, while a lesser 1-2″ is expected further north and west in parts of ID/MT/WY/CO.
On the temperature side, there is still zero evidence in the models of a return to warmer temperatures through the Midwest into September 10th, with both the GFS and the EU continuing to keep the eastern 2/3’s of the US cool. At the same time, heat will remain confined mostly to western Canada, with the northwestern corner of the US also seeing some well above average temperatures over the next two weeks.
In the extended period for precipitation, models continue to be a bit of a mixed bag with the GFS showing more average precipitation biases through the Midwest in the period than the EU model is, while both are staying wetter in the south/southwest. Also of note, the wetter bias seen for the Midwest in the EU’s AI outlook last week is no longer present, which has lowered our confidence a bit in regard to the return of precipitation that was previously expected into the first part of September.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-26-2025
Good morning.
Overnight happenings at the CBOT have been limited mostly to the soy complex to start Tuesday, with the feed grain markets currently sitting near unchanged and having not seen a lot of volume through the night, while the beans are correcting yesterday’s losses and the products continue to see ongoing spread activity. Aside from the turn-around-Tuesday/dead-cat-bounce part of the bean trade this morning, soy prices are otherwise higher on news that a lower-ranking trade delegation from China will be visiting the US later this week for trade talks, a sign that at the very least, discussions are making some sort of progress. We continue to be skeptical of any sort of deal between the two sides without a meeting between Trump and Xi, but the lower level meetings are at least a signal that work is continuing to be done and continue to offer hope to the US farmer that a deal can be reached before exports shut off for the year in early 2026. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are trading mostly lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.10/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update for the week ending August 24th showed corn conditions holding steady on the week at 71% G/EX; at the state level OH improved 8% and CO and MI each improved 6%, while KY was down 4%, PA was down 3%, and IL, IA and ND were all down 2%. Soybean conditions, meanwhile, improved 1% on the week to 69% G/EX; at the state level, OH was up 6%, AR was up 5% and LA was up 4%, while KY fell 8% on the week, and IA was down 3%.
The report also showed 83% of the corn crop in dough stage compared to 72% last week and 83% last year, while 44% of the crop is dented compared to 44% last year and 7% of the crop is mature compared to 10% last year. For soybeans, 89% of the crop is setting pods compared to 88% last year and 4% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 6% last year.
Winter wheat harvest has all but wrapped up, with the report showing progress at 98% as of Sunday, while spring wheat harvest is seen at 53% complete, which is up from 36% last week and compares to 48% through the same week last year. Spring wheat conditions in the week fell 1% in the G/EX category to 49%.
Sources familiar with the situation are reporting that Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang is expected to be in Washington D.C. later this week to meet with US officials and business people regarding the ongoing trade dispute between his country and the US. Government officials told sources from Bloomberg that the trip was not part of a formal negotiating session, adding that Li was already in Canada on Monday and also that he was expected to meet with US Trade Representative Jameson Greer as part of the trip.
Other trade-related news for Tuesday includes reports from Indonesia’s trade office that the US had agreed in principle to exempt key commodities like palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from newly imposed 19% trade tariffs, and also reports from Bloomberg that US and Canadian officials would be meeting soon to hold additional discussions following Canada’s decision to remove some tariff restrictions on US goods last week.
The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS) said in a monthly update that hot and dry weather across southern and eastern Europe has significantly trimmed yield potential in these areas, while adding that crops in the west will likely be near average due to better weather through the growing season. The group pegged EU soft wheat yields at 6.15 tons/ha compared to 6.09 last month and the average of 5.77, while corn yields are seen at 6.93 tons/ha compared to 7.18 in July and the average of 7.10.
Private South American consulting firm AgRural said on Monday that safrinha corn harvest in Brazil’s center-south region has reached 98% complete as of last Thursday, which compares to 100% complete at the same time last year. The group also showed first crop corn planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 crop at 3.2% complete, which compares to 4.2% through the same date last year.
President Trump on Monday announced that he would be dismissing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook “immediately” due to allegation of mortgage fraud involving claims that Cook received favorable loans on two primary residencies. Cook has denied the claims and has refused to resign, while the legality of such a move is being questioned by those opposed to Trump. Should it be approved, this would mark the fourth Trump-appointed Fed Governor, giving him a majority on the board.
Weather forecasts for Tuesday continue to feature rains through the southern and western portions of the US the rest of this week and into the weekend, while the Corn Belt looks to continue holding in a drier pattern for the most part. The EU model this morning shows the possibility of 1-3″ of rainfall from KS/OK to AL/GA, while a lesser 1-2″ is expected further north and west in parts of ID/MT/WY/CO.
On the temperature side, there is still zero evidence in the models of a return to warmer temperatures through the Midwest into September 10th, with both the GFS and the EU continuing to keep the eastern 2/3’s of the US cool. At the same time, heat will remain confined mostly to western Canada, with the northwestern corner of the US also seeing some well above average temperatures over the next two weeks.
In the extended period for precipitation, models continue to be a bit of a mixed bag with the GFS showing more average precipitation biases through the Midwest in the period than the EU model is, while both are staying wetter in the south/southwest. Also of note, the wetter bias seen for the Midwest in the EU’s AI outlook last week is no longer present, which has lowered our confidence a bit in regard to the return of precipitation that was previously expected into the first part of September.
Have a great day.
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