Good morning.
Two-sided trade looks to continue being one of the main themes in the CBOT ag markets for Wednesday this week, as the grains have started the day lower while the beans are higher and the products remain mixed on not a lot of new news over the last 24 hours or so. From a big picture standpoint, rumblings surrounding China the last few days have acted to provide some measure of support to the space, especially the beans, but at the same time, the new crop harvest still looms large in just another few weeks and this has been the main culprit seen for the choppy price action the last couple days. It’s cliche, but our best advice into the beginning of harvest would be to not chase sharp breaks or rallies and stay aware that market focus will begin to shift away from the US sooner rather than later. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed/lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton and soybean oil is near unchanged. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points and the US$ index is up 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending August 22nd is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.060-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are estimated to be between 22.588-23.00 mil bbls. The report will be out at 9:30am central time this morning.
Export data from the EU, which continues to be incomplete due to ongoing technical issues, showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current season that began July 1 at just 2.18 MMTs through Sunday, which is down nearly 50% from the same day last year. In a note, the European Commission added that French export data is missing for 2025/26, and that “the Commission services are in contact with the member states concerned [and are] working to resolve the issue.”
Traders are forecasting that Australia’s ABARES crop agency will likely raise their estimate of the country’s wheat production again when they release new figures on September 2nd, seeing output in the current season between 32 and 35 MMTs compared to an estimate of 30.6 MMTs at the beginning of July; at the high end, this would be above last year’s 34.1 MMTs and also above the 10-year average of 27.6 MMTs.
Speaking at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, IL on Tuesday, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said that the human screwworm case that was reported earlier this week posed no threat to the US farm sector, adding that it was the only case seen in the country this year. The CDC confirmed the case on August 4th, but it wasn’t until a Reuters article came out 20 days later that the information was known by the public, drawing criticism from some as to why the case wasn’t announced sooner.
According to an online report from Vietnam’s trade ministry, the country has proposed an E10 fuel blending mandate for all motor vehicles beginning on January 1 of next year, and also an E15 mandate by January 1 of 2031. Amid ongoing trade discussion with the US, this could be an avenue for increased imports of both US corn and ethanol.
We touched on it a bit yesterday morning, but newswires are reporting the exemption of Indonesian palm oil from tariffs coming into the US was the main reason for the sell-off in the bean oil on Tuesday, though industry sources have indicated the move will make little difference. Sources say the deal between the two countries will go into effect once both sides have signed it, but there has been no date or timeline set for such an occurrence to this point.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, via a statement from her legal team, said Tuesday that she would be filing a lawsuit to prevent President Trump from firing her, setting up what appears to potentially be a prolonged legal battle over the White House’s ability to influence monetary policy. The news has sent two-year Treasury yields to their lowest level since May of this year at 3.65%.
There isn’t a lot new on the trade front this morning surrounding China, but other related news from yesterday and overnight last night includes a scheduled doubling of duties on goods from India to as much as 50% that went into effect at midnight last night, and also reports that the EU was planning to fast-track legislation that would remove tariffs on most US industrial goods by the end of the week, which is a Trump pre-requisite for getting tariffs on European auto exports removed.
The EU model’s precipitation outlook for the rest of the week is like recent days this morning and continues to see rainfall limited to areas in the southern and west-central parts of the US, while the Midwest and Corn Belt hold in a drier pattern. Through the end of the day on Sunday, the forecast shows precipitation ranging from 1-3″ generally from KS/OK to GA/SC in the southeast, while a lesser 0.5-1″ is seen for an area stretching from ID to the Dakota’s in the north/northwest.
Into next week, the model then has rains trying to fill in through parts of IA/MN/WI, but totals do not look to be very big and our confidence in this solution more than 200 hours out is not great. The week two EU AI forecast has also nearly completely removed the above average precipitation biases seen through the Midwest to end last week, which is not a good sign for drought development through the Midwest.
Still nothing new temperature-wise this morning in the east, while models have actually trended cooler in the west as well over the last 24 hours. The GFS 10–15-day outlook now has just slightly above average temperatures for the western US and up into Canada, and its noticeably cooler than the EU’s forecast solution for the same period. Otherwise, there continues to be good agreement on well below average daytime highs remaining in place through the Midwest for at least the next two weeks.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-27-2025
Good morning.
Two-sided trade looks to continue being one of the main themes in the CBOT ag markets for Wednesday this week, as the grains have started the day lower while the beans are higher and the products remain mixed on not a lot of new news over the last 24 hours or so. From a big picture standpoint, rumblings surrounding China the last few days have acted to provide some measure of support to the space, especially the beans, but at the same time, the new crop harvest still looms large in just another few weeks and this has been the main culprit seen for the choppy price action the last couple days. It’s cliche, but our best advice into the beginning of harvest would be to not chase sharp breaks or rallies and stay aware that market focus will begin to shift away from the US sooner rather than later. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed/lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton and soybean oil is near unchanged. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points and the US$ index is up 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending August 22nd is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.060-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are estimated to be between 22.588-23.00 mil bbls. The report will be out at 9:30am central time this morning.
Export data from the EU, which continues to be incomplete due to ongoing technical issues, showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current season that began July 1 at just 2.18 MMTs through Sunday, which is down nearly 50% from the same day last year. In a note, the European Commission added that French export data is missing for 2025/26, and that “the Commission services are in contact with the member states concerned [and are] working to resolve the issue.”
Traders are forecasting that Australia’s ABARES crop agency will likely raise their estimate of the country’s wheat production again when they release new figures on September 2nd, seeing output in the current season between 32 and 35 MMTs compared to an estimate of 30.6 MMTs at the beginning of July; at the high end, this would be above last year’s 34.1 MMTs and also above the 10-year average of 27.6 MMTs.
Speaking at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, IL on Tuesday, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said that the human screwworm case that was reported earlier this week posed no threat to the US farm sector, adding that it was the only case seen in the country this year. The CDC confirmed the case on August 4th, but it wasn’t until a Reuters article came out 20 days later that the information was known by the public, drawing criticism from some as to why the case wasn’t announced sooner.
According to an online report from Vietnam’s trade ministry, the country has proposed an E10 fuel blending mandate for all motor vehicles beginning on January 1 of next year, and also an E15 mandate by January 1 of 2031. Amid ongoing trade discussion with the US, this could be an avenue for increased imports of both US corn and ethanol.
We touched on it a bit yesterday morning, but newswires are reporting the exemption of Indonesian palm oil from tariffs coming into the US was the main reason for the sell-off in the bean oil on Tuesday, though industry sources have indicated the move will make little difference. Sources say the deal between the two countries will go into effect once both sides have signed it, but there has been no date or timeline set for such an occurrence to this point.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, via a statement from her legal team, said Tuesday that she would be filing a lawsuit to prevent President Trump from firing her, setting up what appears to potentially be a prolonged legal battle over the White House’s ability to influence monetary policy. The news has sent two-year Treasury yields to their lowest level since May of this year at 3.65%.
There isn’t a lot new on the trade front this morning surrounding China, but other related news from yesterday and overnight last night includes a scheduled doubling of duties on goods from India to as much as 50% that went into effect at midnight last night, and also reports that the EU was planning to fast-track legislation that would remove tariffs on most US industrial goods by the end of the week, which is a Trump pre-requisite for getting tariffs on European auto exports removed.
The EU model’s precipitation outlook for the rest of the week is like recent days this morning and continues to see rainfall limited to areas in the southern and west-central parts of the US, while the Midwest and Corn Belt hold in a drier pattern. Through the end of the day on Sunday, the forecast shows precipitation ranging from 1-3″ generally from KS/OK to GA/SC in the southeast, while a lesser 0.5-1″ is seen for an area stretching from ID to the Dakota’s in the north/northwest.
Into next week, the model then has rains trying to fill in through parts of IA/MN/WI, but totals do not look to be very big and our confidence in this solution more than 200 hours out is not great. The week two EU AI forecast has also nearly completely removed the above average precipitation biases seen through the Midwest to end last week, which is not a good sign for drought development through the Midwest.
Still nothing new temperature-wise this morning in the east, while models have actually trended cooler in the west as well over the last 24 hours. The GFS 10–15-day outlook now has just slightly above average temperatures for the western US and up into Canada, and its noticeably cooler than the EU’s forecast solution for the same period. Otherwise, there continues to be good agreement on well below average daytime highs remaining in place through the Midwest for at least the next two weeks.
Have a great day.
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