Good morning.
Mixed/choppy trade looks to be again on the docket for the CBOT on Thursday, as markets have spent most of the overnight hours wallowing around unchanged. In corn, it would appear traders have processed the recent crop tour findings and are now at the point of saying “eh, we’ll see” when it comes to whether or not they will cover any more of their current net-short position based on yield reductions. August weather would seem to have taken the top end off things generally speaking, but like we’ve mentioned several times, until combines either confirm or deny this over the course of the next 6-8 weeks there just simply isn’t a lot for traders to do in the meantime. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed/mostly lower, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are also mixed/mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending August 21st is expected to show old crop corn sales between (200k)-150k MTs and old crop soybean sales between (200k)-50k MTs. On the new crop, corn sales are seen between 1.2-2.6 MMTs, soybean sales are seen between 450k-1.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 400k-700k MTs.
Also out this morning will be updated Canadian crop production estimates from StatsCanada. Traders see the report showing all Canadian wheat production in the 2024/25 crop year at 35.9 MMTs vs 35.0 previously, while canola production is seen at 20.3 MMTs vs 19.2 previously and barley production is seen at 8.2 MMTs vs 8.1 previously. The report will be out at 7:30am central time.
Sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday that China, via Cofco International, had purchased several shipments of Australian canola, potentially ending a years-long hiatus on the trade between the two. Sources say the shipments are for Q4, which means they could still be canceled or changed, but it seems unlikely at this point amid ongoing trade disputes between China and Canada that triggered the purchases in the first place.
Private European ag consultancy Argus Media on Wednesday raised their estimate of Russia’s 2025/26 wheat production from 84.8 MMTs in June to 86.1 MMTs now, which if accurate, would be the third largest wheat harvest ever in Russia. The group also mentioned they expect record wheat harvests in all three of Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria, and that France’s crop, seen at 33.4 MMTs, would be up notably from last year.
The NASDAQ is stable this morning and did not seem to receive any of the spill-over selling from Nvidia yesterday afternoon, as the world’s highest value company again beat earnings estimates but still saw its share prices tumble by as much as 5% at one point as the data showed zero shipments of the company’s flagship H2O chip to China despite receiving some export licenses to do so in recent weeks. CEO Jensen Huang said following the report that the “AI spending boom was far from over”, and added that opportunities will continue to rapidly expand over the next five years.
Amid ongoing efforts by US President Trump to end the war in Ukraine, Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are set to attend a military parade in Beijing later next week, marking what seems to be the first public appearance of the two alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Trade-related news for Thursday includes reports that Japan’s top trade negotiator has canceled a planned visit to the US at the last minute, further delaying talks aimed at finalizing a trade deal between the two sides. Headlines also have Indian PM Narendra Modi heading for a meeting with leaders from China, Japan, and Russia amid ongoing fallout from increased US tariffs.
Weather forecasts this morning are wetter Saturday/Sunday in SD/NE in the western Corn Belt, but are otherwise unchanged from previous runs and continue to see mostly dry conditions across the Midwest through the weekend and into next week. A line of fairly strong storms looks to start in KS/OK today and will then work south and east towards the US Gulf through the end of the week, with storms then starting up further to the north over the weekend.
Temperatures look to remain mild for the Midwest through at least the first 10 days of September, as there continues to be zero sign of warmth returning to the Midwest over the next two weeks. The GFS 10-15 day outlook is marginally warmer than the EU model solution again this morning, but still only sees just pockets of slightly warmer than average temperatures scattered across the west-central part of the Midwest, while areas to the south and east are still seen average to slightly below average.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments 08-28-2025
Good morning.
Mixed/choppy trade looks to be again on the docket for the CBOT on Thursday, as markets have spent most of the overnight hours wallowing around unchanged. In corn, it would appear traders have processed the recent crop tour findings and are now at the point of saying “eh, we’ll see” when it comes to whether or not they will cover any more of their current net-short position based on yield reductions. August weather would seem to have taken the top end off things generally speaking, but like we’ve mentioned several times, until combines either confirm or deny this over the course of the next 6-8 weeks there just simply isn’t a lot for traders to do in the meantime. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed/mostly lower, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are also mixed/mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending August 21st is expected to show old crop corn sales between (200k)-150k MTs and old crop soybean sales between (200k)-50k MTs. On the new crop, corn sales are seen between 1.2-2.6 MMTs, soybean sales are seen between 450k-1.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 400k-700k MTs.
Also out this morning will be updated Canadian crop production estimates from StatsCanada. Traders see the report showing all Canadian wheat production in the 2024/25 crop year at 35.9 MMTs vs 35.0 previously, while canola production is seen at 20.3 MMTs vs 19.2 previously and barley production is seen at 8.2 MMTs vs 8.1 previously. The report will be out at 7:30am central time.
Sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday that China, via Cofco International, had purchased several shipments of Australian canola, potentially ending a years-long hiatus on the trade between the two. Sources say the shipments are for Q4, which means they could still be canceled or changed, but it seems unlikely at this point amid ongoing trade disputes between China and Canada that triggered the purchases in the first place.
Private European ag consultancy Argus Media on Wednesday raised their estimate of Russia’s 2025/26 wheat production from 84.8 MMTs in June to 86.1 MMTs now, which if accurate, would be the third largest wheat harvest ever in Russia. The group also mentioned they expect record wheat harvests in all three of Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria, and that France’s crop, seen at 33.4 MMTs, would be up notably from last year.
The NASDAQ is stable this morning and did not seem to receive any of the spill-over selling from Nvidia yesterday afternoon, as the world’s highest value company again beat earnings estimates but still saw its share prices tumble by as much as 5% at one point as the data showed zero shipments of the company’s flagship H2O chip to China despite receiving some export licenses to do so in recent weeks. CEO Jensen Huang said following the report that the “AI spending boom was far from over”, and added that opportunities will continue to rapidly expand over the next five years.
Amid ongoing efforts by US President Trump to end the war in Ukraine, Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are set to attend a military parade in Beijing later next week, marking what seems to be the first public appearance of the two alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Trade-related news for Thursday includes reports that Japan’s top trade negotiator has canceled a planned visit to the US at the last minute, further delaying talks aimed at finalizing a trade deal between the two sides. Headlines also have Indian PM Narendra Modi heading for a meeting with leaders from China, Japan, and Russia amid ongoing fallout from increased US tariffs.
Weather forecasts this morning are wetter Saturday/Sunday in SD/NE in the western Corn Belt, but are otherwise unchanged from previous runs and continue to see mostly dry conditions across the Midwest through the weekend and into next week. A line of fairly strong storms looks to start in KS/OK today and will then work south and east towards the US Gulf through the end of the week, with storms then starting up further to the north over the weekend.
Temperatures look to remain mild for the Midwest through at least the first 10 days of September, as there continues to be zero sign of warmth returning to the Midwest over the next two weeks. The GFS 10-15 day outlook is marginally warmer than the EU model solution again this morning, but still only sees just pockets of slightly warmer than average temperatures scattered across the west-central part of the Midwest, while areas to the south and east are still seen average to slightly below average.
Have a great day!
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