Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed/higher in the last overnight session of the month, with Friday looking to be mostly a position squaring day ahead of the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend. Overnight volume to this point has been good, but that likely tapers off as we move through the morning session. News-wise, traders will be watching to see if there any major forecast adjustments between now and Monday evening, and also keeping an eye out for any developments on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Otherwise, its hurry up and wait for harvest to get here. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are 9-13 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged. Products are mostly higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are quiet/higher, crude oil is trading either side of unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 160 points.
Officials from Brazil’s Parana state Department of Rural Economy see the state’s soybean crop in the 2024/25 season increasing nearly 20% from the past season to 22.33 mmt’s; planted area is expected to be mostly unchanged, with the increase in production coming via a rebound in yields.
The European Commission lowered their estimate of total EU grain production to 264.5 mmt’s, which is down nearly 7 mmt’s from their previous estimate in July. Soft wheat saw the biggest cut, dropping from 120.8 mmt’s to 116.1 mmt’s.
USDA economists project the US ag-trade deficit in 2025 will reach $42.5 billion, compared to a projected $31.5 bil gap in 2024. Exports are seen $4 bil lower than last year at $169.5 bil, and imports are seen increasing by $8 bil to $212 bil.
Mexico and Canada are expected to remain the two largest export markets for the US at $29.2 bil and $28.9 bil respectively, while China at $24 bil is seen holding down the third spot.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 24th were down nearly 18% from the week prior at 580k tons; Corn shipments were down 31% at 338k tons, and soybean shipments were up 14% at 184k tons.
Equity markets will have their attention on this morning’s PCE inflation report, which is expected to show annual inflation at 2.5%, 0.1% lower than last month’s reading.
Rainfall yesterday was seen across a wide area of the western Corn Belt, with totals of 0.1-2″ seen across parts of KS/NE/IA/MN/WI. The Delta/southeast also saw scattered precipitation.
Models show additional scattered showers through the south and southeast into the weekend, while the northwestern part of the Midwest begins a period of dryness that is expected to last into next week.
Week-two forecasts continue to favor a similar pattern of wetter in the south and southeast and drier in the north and northwest, but the presence of tropical activity in the Gulf has lowered confidence beyond a week.
Heat looks to linger in the east for one more day this week, before more average temps are seen for the three-day holiday weekend. Next week, most of the Midwest will see temps that are below average, with a return to near average seen by the end of next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-30-2024
Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed/higher in the last overnight session of the month, with Friday looking to be mostly a position squaring day ahead of the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend. Overnight volume to this point has been good, but that likely tapers off as we move through the morning session. News-wise, traders will be watching to see if there any major forecast adjustments between now and Monday evening, and also keeping an eye out for any developments on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Otherwise, its hurry up and wait for harvest to get here. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are 9-13 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged. Products are mostly higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are quiet/higher, crude oil is trading either side of unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 160 points.
Officials from Brazil’s Parana state Department of Rural Economy see the state’s soybean crop in the 2024/25 season increasing nearly 20% from the past season to 22.33 mmt’s; planted area is expected to be mostly unchanged, with the increase in production coming via a rebound in yields.
The European Commission lowered their estimate of total EU grain production to 264.5 mmt’s, which is down nearly 7 mmt’s from their previous estimate in July. Soft wheat saw the biggest cut, dropping from 120.8 mmt’s to 116.1 mmt’s.
USDA economists project the US ag-trade deficit in 2025 will reach $42.5 billion, compared to a projected $31.5 bil gap in 2024. Exports are seen $4 bil lower than last year at $169.5 bil, and imports are seen increasing by $8 bil to $212 bil.
Mexico and Canada are expected to remain the two largest export markets for the US at $29.2 bil and $28.9 bil respectively, while China at $24 bil is seen holding down the third spot.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 24th were down nearly 18% from the week prior at 580k tons; Corn shipments were down 31% at 338k tons, and soybean shipments were up 14% at 184k tons.
Equity markets will have their attention on this morning’s PCE inflation report, which is expected to show annual inflation at 2.5%, 0.1% lower than last month’s reading.
Rainfall yesterday was seen across a wide area of the western Corn Belt, with totals of 0.1-2″ seen across parts of KS/NE/IA/MN/WI. The Delta/southeast also saw scattered precipitation.
Models show additional scattered showers through the south and southeast into the weekend, while the northwestern part of the Midwest begins a period of dryness that is expected to last into next week.
Week-two forecasts continue to favor a similar pattern of wetter in the south and southeast and drier in the north and northwest, but the presence of tropical activity in the Gulf has lowered confidence beyond a week.
Heat looks to linger in the east for one more day this week, before more average temps are seen for the three-day holiday weekend. Next week, most of the Midwest will see temps that are below average, with a return to near average seen by the end of next week.
Have a great day.
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