Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures started higher on Monday night’s re-open from the long holiday weekend but have spent most of the morning hours working backwards and are now trading mixed to fractionally lower. As harvest is another week closer in the Midwest, yield estimates via either private crop tours or actual combine data will increasingly be the main determiner of price direction as weather focus shifts to the southern hemisphere. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3/ton, and soybean oil is down 1.30-1.40. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are down $1-1.10/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 200 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points. The S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 150 points.
Last week’s CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed as of August 27th, managed money traders were net-short 241,908 contracts of corn, net-short 176,551 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 56,202 contracts of Chicago wheat.
In soy products, funds were buyers of 16,109 contracts of soybean oil, and buyers of 1,537 contracts of soybean meal; this makes them now short 68,279 contracts of soybean oil and long 5,129 contracts of soybean meal.
The USDA’s fats & oils report for the month of July is due at 2pm central time this afternoon and is expected to show US soybean crush for the month at 192.135 mil bu’s; this would be up 4.6% from June, and up 4.0% from July of last year.
The report is also expected to show soybean oil stocks as of July 31 at 1.968 bil lbs., which would be down 7.4% from June and down 7.9% from July of last year.
Private US ag firm StoneX sees Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop at 165.04 mmt’s and sees the country’s first corn crop at 24.96 mmt’s; both estimates are unchanged vs last month’s numbers despite ongoing in dryness in both Argentina and Brazil.
Grain exports in Argentina totaled $2.451 bil for the month of August, which is up nearly 40% from the same period last year but down 9% from July according to the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grain exporters.
A separate group, the Rosario Grains Exchange, sees corn shipments in the first six months of the year up 34% from last year, while soybean shipments are seen up 67% from last year. Monetary values, however, are up just 5% for corn and up 39% for soybeans.
According to Ukraine’s ag ministry, grain harvest in the current season has reached 28.7 mmt’s, compared to 29.2 mmt’s as of the same date last year; this mostly includes wheat and barley, as corn harvest is just getting started. Exports have reached 7.0 mmt’s as of June 1, compared with 4.3 mmt’s at the same time last year.
Australia’s Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) adjusted their estimate of the country’s 2024/25 wheat production to 31.8 mmt’s, which is about 9% higher than their estimate in June. If realized, this would be Australia’s fourth largest wheat harvest on record and would be up nearly 23% from last year.
US federally inspected pork production in the week ending August 31st was seen at 510 mil lbs., down 3.2% from last week; beef production was seen at 518 mil lbs., up 0.8% from last week. For the year, pork production is up 1.6% and beef production is down 1.2%.
Crude oil futures are lower this morning on ideas that OPEC+ could increase production in October, and also due to weak economic data coming out of China yesterday; these are outweighing news that Libya halted oil exports at major ports on Monday, and also curtailed production across the country.
Equity markets look to start the holiday-shortened week on the quiet side, with jobs data on Wednesday (JOLT’s), Thursday (weekly jobless claims), and Friday (non-farm payrolls) key to market movement this week.
Weather this week will be quite benign through most of the Midwest, with highs reaching the lower/mid 80’s on Wednesday/Thursday, but otherwise staying in the 70’s. By Saturday/Sunday, a lot of the northern part of the country will see highs in the upper 60’s.
Two-week guidance over the weekend shows things mostly staying this way into the middle of September, which will be beneficial for later planted crops. Meanwhile, the west looks to stay well above average as high pressure remains anchored over this part of the country.
Models are in good agreement on rainfall this week, with most of the Corn Belt continuing to be dry into the weekend. The south/southeast will be wet as tropical storm activity in the Gulf provides several rounds of storms/rainfall between now and Sunday.
Week-two precipitation outlooks stay mostly dry for the majority of the country, save for the northwest and southeast corners that have above average precipitation chances. As we mentioned last week, dryness will begin to be welcome in the coming days/weeks as harvest gets started.
Parts of Argentina saw as much as 2″ of rainfall over the weekend, with the heaviest totals noted in the northern part of the country. Southern Brazil also received some of this moisture, but otherwise remains mostly dry.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-03-2024
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures started higher on Monday night’s re-open from the long holiday weekend but have spent most of the morning hours working backwards and are now trading mixed to fractionally lower. As harvest is another week closer in the Midwest, yield estimates via either private crop tours or actual combine data will increasingly be the main determiner of price direction as weather focus shifts to the southern hemisphere. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3/ton, and soybean oil is down 1.30-1.40. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are down $1-1.10/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 200 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points. The S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 150 points.
Last week’s CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed as of August 27th, managed money traders were net-short 241,908 contracts of corn, net-short 176,551 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 56,202 contracts of Chicago wheat.
In soy products, funds were buyers of 16,109 contracts of soybean oil, and buyers of 1,537 contracts of soybean meal; this makes them now short 68,279 contracts of soybean oil and long 5,129 contracts of soybean meal.
The USDA’s fats & oils report for the month of July is due at 2pm central time this afternoon and is expected to show US soybean crush for the month at 192.135 mil bu’s; this would be up 4.6% from June, and up 4.0% from July of last year.
The report is also expected to show soybean oil stocks as of July 31 at 1.968 bil lbs., which would be down 7.4% from June and down 7.9% from July of last year.
Private US ag firm StoneX sees Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop at 165.04 mmt’s and sees the country’s first corn crop at 24.96 mmt’s; both estimates are unchanged vs last month’s numbers despite ongoing in dryness in both Argentina and Brazil.
Grain exports in Argentina totaled $2.451 bil for the month of August, which is up nearly 40% from the same period last year but down 9% from July according to the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grain exporters.
A separate group, the Rosario Grains Exchange, sees corn shipments in the first six months of the year up 34% from last year, while soybean shipments are seen up 67% from last year. Monetary values, however, are up just 5% for corn and up 39% for soybeans.
According to Ukraine’s ag ministry, grain harvest in the current season has reached 28.7 mmt’s, compared to 29.2 mmt’s as of the same date last year; this mostly includes wheat and barley, as corn harvest is just getting started. Exports have reached 7.0 mmt’s as of June 1, compared with 4.3 mmt’s at the same time last year.
Australia’s Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) adjusted their estimate of the country’s 2024/25 wheat production to 31.8 mmt’s, which is about 9% higher than their estimate in June. If realized, this would be Australia’s fourth largest wheat harvest on record and would be up nearly 23% from last year.
US federally inspected pork production in the week ending August 31st was seen at 510 mil lbs., down 3.2% from last week; beef production was seen at 518 mil lbs., up 0.8% from last week. For the year, pork production is up 1.6% and beef production is down 1.2%.
Crude oil futures are lower this morning on ideas that OPEC+ could increase production in October, and also due to weak economic data coming out of China yesterday; these are outweighing news that Libya halted oil exports at major ports on Monday, and also curtailed production across the country.
Equity markets look to start the holiday-shortened week on the quiet side, with jobs data on Wednesday (JOLT’s), Thursday (weekly jobless claims), and Friday (non-farm payrolls) key to market movement this week.
Weather this week will be quite benign through most of the Midwest, with highs reaching the lower/mid 80’s on Wednesday/Thursday, but otherwise staying in the 70’s. By Saturday/Sunday, a lot of the northern part of the country will see highs in the upper 60’s.
Two-week guidance over the weekend shows things mostly staying this way into the middle of September, which will be beneficial for later planted crops. Meanwhile, the west looks to stay well above average as high pressure remains anchored over this part of the country.
Models are in good agreement on rainfall this week, with most of the Corn Belt continuing to be dry into the weekend. The south/southeast will be wet as tropical storm activity in the Gulf provides several rounds of storms/rainfall between now and Sunday.
Week-two precipitation outlooks stay mostly dry for the majority of the country, save for the northwest and southeast corners that have above average precipitation chances. As we mentioned last week, dryness will begin to be welcome in the coming days/weeks as harvest gets started.
Parts of Argentina saw as much as 2″ of rainfall over the weekend, with the heaviest totals noted in the northern part of the country. Southern Brazil also received some of this moisture, but otherwise remains mostly dry.
Have a great day.
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