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Grain Comments: 09.08.23

Overnight trade was on both sides of unchanged as pre-weekend and pre-report positioning started to elevate. Corn values were 1 higher to 1 lower, soybeans were steady to 1 lower, and wheat was down 1-2 cents. The US dollar was steady, energies were higher, and equities were lower.

 

 

Today’s Reports: Export Sales, Consumer Credit

 

  • Mexico may alter GMO import stance
  • China buying O/N soybeans from Brazil
  • Economists predict $100 crude oil

 

 

Trade is expecting to see another high number on soybean sales in the weekly USDA report. This is mainly from the daily sales we had last week that totaled 42 million bu. This elevated demand is putting US new crop soybean sales closer to their projected pace, but there is still a sizable spread between projections and actual sales. Until this is erased trade will be hesitant to raise futures from current levels as any appreciate in value will deter demand, especially with a stronger US dollar. Corn and wheat sales have been less impressive in recent weeks and today is expected to be little changed, especially with a lack of daily sales on either grain being announced. While this data will be key in today’s market activity, more interest will fall on US harvest reports and positioning for next week’s WASDE report. As for harvest, early yield data remains impressive on corn. There are several who believe this will change as activity progresses into areas that were more impacted by drought during the growing season. As a result, several analysts also feel the USDA will need to lower its production estimate on corn and soybeans both in balance sheets. While this is possible, it does not mean we will see production decrease this month.

 

Highlights

* Low water continues to impact US/Panama Canal

* Panama Canal may see low water for months

* Weekly ethanol production +35,000 barrels

* Weekly ethanol stocks +12,000 barrels

* Odds of US recession at 15%

* Brazil to add 100 mil acres of farmland in 10 years

* World food values -2.1% from July to August

* World food values -24% from March 2022 high

* Crude oil at 10 month high

* China may ban Apple phones

 

Corn

* Analysts mixed on Brazil acreage outlook

* Some see plantings up 1%, others see steady

* US yield estimates ranges from 170 to 177 bpa

* US yield estimates above projected demand

* Weekly ethanol usage was 101 mbu

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