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Grain Comments: 09.11.23

Overnight trade was mixed to start the week with corn up 1-2 cents and soybeans gaining 3-5 cents while wheat was 3-5 cents lower. The US dollar was lower, energies mixed, and equities higher.

 

Today’s Reports: Export Inspections, Crop Progress

 

  • Crop ratings expected to decline
  • Reports of barges grounding on Ohio River
  • US dollar posts 8 consecutive higher weekly closes

 

The main focus of today’s session will be spent on getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s updated WASDE report. On old crop trade is expecting to see United States’ demand trimmed on both corn and soybeans. This is mainly from poor exports that have plagued the market all year. Trade is showing more interest in new crop balance sheets as crops are once again being subjected to stressful weather conditions. While this is a fact, stress has been spotty and not across the entire US production area. This may prevent the USDA from trimming yields until actual harvest data starts coming in. This is the first crop report on new crop that will include field collected data and may still surprise trade in either direction. As a result, more traders are simply evening up positions and moving to the sidelines until data is released. Production will be heavily watched in the monthly data, but demand will be just as much of a factor. New crop export sales have struggled for several weeks on corn, soybeans, and wheat, but we have started to see more interest on soybeans recently. This is mainly from China as the country is covering the gap between South American harvests.

 

Highlights

* Typhons continue to cause flooding in China

* China rains causing crop damage

* Russian 2023 ag exports +25% from 2022

* South America seeing better rains

* High input costs still a factor for cash flow

* Input costs could drop returns below break even

* Insurers planning for next Black Sea corridor

* US markets seeing more harvest pressure

* Sep WASDE tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT

* Report first of year to use field data

 

Corn

* Dec futures were 2 ¼ cents lower last week

* Market focused on approaching harvest

* Importers favoring SAM offers

* Brazil sees record corn trade with China

* China imports record 2.3 mmt Brazil corn in August

 

Soybeans

* Nov futures gained 6 ¼ cents last week

* US overpriced in global market

* Palm oil supplies larger than expected

* Argentine peso incentive raises selling interest

* Some EU members want Ukraine oilseed imports

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