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Grain Comments: 09.12.23

Pre-report positioning and better than expected crop ratings weighed on overnight trade with corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans down 4-6 cents, and wheat 3-5 cents lower. The US dollar firmed overnight while energies were mixed and equities were weaker.

 

Today’s Reports: WASDE

 

  • Open interest in Ag contracts 6-week high
  • Weak Chinese currency impacting trade
  • Acreage may be wild card in WASDE report

 

The ratings of the US soybean crops declined last week, but the reductions were much less than trade was expecting. The US corn crop is now rated 52% Good/Excellent, -1 point on the week. Corn harvest has advanced to 5% which is 1% ahead of average. The soybean crop is now rated 52% G/E which was also down 1% from the previous week. Leaves have dropped on 31% of the soybean crop, ahead of the 25% average. Spring wheat harvest has advanced to 87% which is in line with the normal pace. The same is true on winter wheat seeding at 7% of projected acres. The main focal point in today’s trade will be the release of the monthly supply and demand data from the USDA. Most traders are expecting to see slight reductions to yields from the August report, but the range of guesses is very wide. There are also some that think yields will hold close to what the USDA is already using in balance sheets. The surprise in this report may come from acreage and if the USDA ups its harvested totals. It is not out of the question yields could decline and crop sizes could hold steady or even increase. The real interest needs to be placed on stocks to use adjustments as these could widen due to low new crop demand and also offset any decrease in the average yield estimate.

 

Highlights

* Ukraine harvest pace ahead of last year

* Ukraine sees larger export volumes

* Romania to provide more export flow for Ukraine

* US diesel values +3.1% last week

* Diesel values highest since January 26th

* US barge movement -38% last week

* Soybean barge movement -49%

* India monsoon rainfall -11% from average

* China lowers export forecast

* US drought expected to expand

 

Corn

* Ave corn yield est 173.5 bpa

* Average crop est 15 bbu

* 22/23 carryout est 1.46 bbu

* 23/24 carryout est 2.14 bbu

* World 23/24 ending stocks est 310.12 mmt

 

Soybeans

* Ave yield est 50.2 bpa

* US crop size est 4.16 bbu

* 22/23 carryout est 255 mbu

* 23/24 ending stocks est 207 mbu

* World 23/24 carryover est 118.6 mmt

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