Good morning.
Markets have started the new week mixed at the board of trade, as the soy complex and equity markets are in the green, while the grain markets trade marginally lower. Biggest market mover for corn and soybeans this week looks to be the September WASDE report, which is due out Thursday; this is also a rare week where the trade will see both USDA and Conab numbers on the same day, though the Brazil numbers are not expected to be overly Earth-shattering due to it still being early in their planting season. Otherwise, the days continue to tick down to the full onslaught of the US harvest, with yield rumors from the fields likely gaining in frequency over the next couple weeks. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are 9-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-60 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up 30-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 250 points, and the US$ index is up 50 points. The S&P500 is up 40 points, and the NASDAQ is up 150 points. Inside days so far for the stock indices after Friday’s wide-ranging trade.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending September 3rd showed managed money traders in the week were buyers across ag space.
Funds bought 65,697 contracts of corn (now net-short 176,211 contracts), bought 23,640 contracts of soybeans (net-short 154,094), and bought 13,577 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 42,624).
In soy products, funds bought 20,752 contracts of soybean oil (now net-short 47,527) and bought 18,042 contracts of soybean meal (net-long 23,171).
For Thursday’s report, the trade sees old crop ending stocks for both corn and soybeans coming in marginally lower, but close to unchanged from last month. As we mentioned last week, old crop ethanol demand should see a slight adjustment higher; the soy balance sheet is not expected to show much change from last month.
2024 production numbers look to steal most of the headlines from the report, though the avg trade guesses don’t see a lot of change; corn yield is seen at an avg guess of 182.7 bpa, compared to 183.1 last month, and soybean yield is seen at an avg guess of 53.3 bpa, compared to 53.2 last month.
World ending stocks for corn are estimated at 309.4 mmt’s vs 310.2 last month, and world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 134 mmt’s vs 134.3 last month. World wheat stocks are seen at 255.4 mmt’s vs 256.6 last month.
According to officials from India’s ag ministry, the increase of the palm-based biodiesel mandate to 40% is set to take effect on January 1 of 2025.
Monday marked the start of China’s one-year anti-dumping probe into imports of Canadian canola and rapeseed; a note from the ministry adds that the investigation could be extended by up to six months should it be necessary.
US federally inspected beef production in the week ending September 7th was seen at 461 mil lbs., down 11% from the week prior. Pork production was estimated at 489 mil lbs., down 4.1% on the week. For the year, beef production is down 1.2% and pork production is up 1.7%.
Equity markets this week will be influenced first by Tuesday evening’s Presidential debate, and then on Wednesday by CPI inflation data for August. Though the jobs markets has taken center-stage of late, continued progress on disinflation will still be a key part of the Fed’s rate decision next week.
72-hour satellite data showed mostly dry conditions through the Corn Belt over the weekend; Tropical activity in the Gulf provided moisture to parts of the south and southeast, while parts of KY/OH/PA also picked up around a half inch generally speaking.
For this week, models are in fairly good agreement on rainfall of anywhere from trace amounts to an inch making its way into the Mississippi River Valley, with heavier totals seen further to the south. The rest of the Corn Belt remains mostly dry.
Week-two forecasts have taken a shift, and now see a wetter pattern evolving for the northern half of the country into the back half of September. Models also see the east coast into the Atlantic staying wet in this time period.
Temps this week will again see a boost to well above average levels, with a high-pressure ridge rolling through the mid-section of the country set to return highs to the upper 80’s by the end of the week for most of the Midwest. And week-two forecasts see an above avg temp bias for the same area into at least September 22.
No updates of note in South America over the last 72 hours, as the monsoon season in Brazil is still not seen arriving until October. Heat looks to be center on Southern Brazil/Northern Argentina over the next 10 days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-09-2024
Good morning.
Markets have started the new week mixed at the board of trade, as the soy complex and equity markets are in the green, while the grain markets trade marginally lower. Biggest market mover for corn and soybeans this week looks to be the September WASDE report, which is due out Thursday; this is also a rare week where the trade will see both USDA and Conab numbers on the same day, though the Brazil numbers are not expected to be overly Earth-shattering due to it still being early in their planting season. Otherwise, the days continue to tick down to the full onslaught of the US harvest, with yield rumors from the fields likely gaining in frequency over the next couple weeks. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are 9-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-60 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up 30-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 250 points, and the US$ index is up 50 points. The S&P500 is up 40 points, and the NASDAQ is up 150 points. Inside days so far for the stock indices after Friday’s wide-ranging trade.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending September 3rd showed managed money traders in the week were buyers across ag space.
Funds bought 65,697 contracts of corn (now net-short 176,211 contracts), bought 23,640 contracts of soybeans (net-short 154,094), and bought 13,577 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 42,624).
In soy products, funds bought 20,752 contracts of soybean oil (now net-short 47,527) and bought 18,042 contracts of soybean meal (net-long 23,171).
For Thursday’s report, the trade sees old crop ending stocks for both corn and soybeans coming in marginally lower, but close to unchanged from last month. As we mentioned last week, old crop ethanol demand should see a slight adjustment higher; the soy balance sheet is not expected to show much change from last month.
2024 production numbers look to steal most of the headlines from the report, though the avg trade guesses don’t see a lot of change; corn yield is seen at an avg guess of 182.7 bpa, compared to 183.1 last month, and soybean yield is seen at an avg guess of 53.3 bpa, compared to 53.2 last month.
World ending stocks for corn are estimated at 309.4 mmt’s vs 310.2 last month, and world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 134 mmt’s vs 134.3 last month. World wheat stocks are seen at 255.4 mmt’s vs 256.6 last month.
According to officials from India’s ag ministry, the increase of the palm-based biodiesel mandate to 40% is set to take effect on January 1 of 2025.
Monday marked the start of China’s one-year anti-dumping probe into imports of Canadian canola and rapeseed; a note from the ministry adds that the investigation could be extended by up to six months should it be necessary.
US federally inspected beef production in the week ending September 7th was seen at 461 mil lbs., down 11% from the week prior. Pork production was estimated at 489 mil lbs., down 4.1% on the week. For the year, beef production is down 1.2% and pork production is up 1.7%.
Equity markets this week will be influenced first by Tuesday evening’s Presidential debate, and then on Wednesday by CPI inflation data for August. Though the jobs markets has taken center-stage of late, continued progress on disinflation will still be a key part of the Fed’s rate decision next week.
72-hour satellite data showed mostly dry conditions through the Corn Belt over the weekend; Tropical activity in the Gulf provided moisture to parts of the south and southeast, while parts of KY/OH/PA also picked up around a half inch generally speaking.
For this week, models are in fairly good agreement on rainfall of anywhere from trace amounts to an inch making its way into the Mississippi River Valley, with heavier totals seen further to the south. The rest of the Corn Belt remains mostly dry.
Week-two forecasts have taken a shift, and now see a wetter pattern evolving for the northern half of the country into the back half of September. Models also see the east coast into the Atlantic staying wet in this time period.
Temps this week will again see a boost to well above average levels, with a high-pressure ridge rolling through the mid-section of the country set to return highs to the upper 80’s by the end of the week for most of the Midwest. And week-two forecasts see an above avg temp bias for the same area into at least September 22.
No updates of note in South America over the last 72 hours, as the monsoon season in Brazil is still not seen arriving until October. Heat looks to be center on Southern Brazil/Northern Argentina over the next 10 days.
Have a great day.
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