Good morning.
Back and forth we go at the CBOT, as yesterday’s gains are today’s losses. The soy complex is again the leader to start Tuesday, albeit to the downside today instead of the upside. The bull camp would be encouraged by the ability to stay above $4 and $10 respectively, which should be support levels today. On the upside, Friday’s highs appear to be resistance this week, with a close above 4.16 in Dec corn and 10.32 in Nov beans needed to spark a further upside push. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are down 8-10 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quiet/mixed, crude oil futures are down 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 25 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 25 points.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress update again offered little in the way of market moving data; corn conditions were down 1% on the week to 64% g/ex, and soybean conditions were unchanged on the week at 65%.
At the state level, biggest improvements on the week were seen in Ohio (+7%), Pennsylvania (+7%), Illinois (+4%), and Missouri (+3%). Declines were noted in Michigan (-8%), Kansas (-7%), Minnesota (-5%), and Colorado (-3%).
In soybeans, states with the most improvement were North Dakota (+4%), Mississippi (+3%), Tennessee (+3%), Louisiana (+2%), and Illinois (+2%). Declines were seen in Kansas (-6%), North Carolina (-4%), Minnesota (-4%) and Michigan (-4%).
The amount of corn in the dough stage increased 5% on the week to 95%, while the amount of the crop that is dented increased from 60% to 74%. Maturity reached 29% compared to 19% last week. Harvest progress was estimated at 5% complete, compared to 4% last year and the five-year average of 3%.
The amount of the soybean crop setting pods increased from 94% to 97%, while the amount of the crop dropping leaves increased from 13% to 25%. There was no harvest progress estimate yet on the soybean side.
For wheat, spring wheat harvest was seen advancing 15% to 85% complete; winter wheat planting progress was estimated at 6% complete, compared to 2% last week and 5% this week last year. The five-year average planting pace on winter wheat as of this week is 6%.
US Congress on Monday received a letter signed by more than 300 farm and commodity groups urging them to pass a new Farm Bill by the end of the year. The currently extended 2018 version is again set to expire at the end of this month, though most farm programs will continue through the end of the year.
Crude oil futures have so far held last week’s lows to begin this week, despite demand fears out of China due to a continued poor economic outlook. Chinese data overnight however, showed a surprise increase in exports to a two-year high, which helped bring prices off their lows.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR lowered their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 83.8 mmt’s to 82.2 mmt’s on Tuesday, citing “very adverse” weather in Volga, Urals, and Siberia. Same group also lowered corn production from 13.1 mmt’s to 12.0 mmt’s.
Brazilian ag consultancy AgRural estimated first corn planting in central-south Brazil at 15% complete as of last Thursday, which is up 8% from the week prior but behind last year’s 17% pace.
Chinese customs data shows August soybean imports into the country hit a record 12.144 mil tons last month, which was an increase of more than 20% from July’s total. Cumulative imports through August were seen at roughly 70.48 mil tons, which is up around 3% from the same period last year.
Equity markets will be mostly quiet data-wise on Tuesday, with all eyes on this evening’s presidential debate between Harris and Trump. The first, and potentially only, face-to-face meeting between the two more or less restarts a race that was put on hold following the last debate between Trump and current President Biden, which saw Biden’s removal from the race.
24-hour satellite data shows almost zero rainfall across the US on Monday; scattered storms produced trace moisture across the western Plains, while New York and parts of the upper northeast received up to an inch. Florida also picked up anywhere from trace amounts to 2 inches as Gulf activity keeps an active weather pattern in place here.
Overnight updates to Tropical Storm Francine showed the storm’s remnants not making it as far north as was seen yesterday, but otherwise were mostly minimal. The storm is still expected to make landfall as a hurricane Wednesday evening.
Models didn’t see a lot of change from yesterday regarding the storm, with rains still expected to make it up to southern IL/IN by Friday evening. Totals here will likely range from trace amounts to an inch, while further south, totals will range from 2-6″.
Ridging otherwise keeps most of the Midwest dry into the weekend, with storms seen bringing moisture of up to 2″ to areas of Idaho/Montana in the northwest through Friday.
Week-two forecasts continue to fluctuate, with the latest runs showing the EU and GFS ensembles more in line with the EU AI model, which was much wetter yesterday. Rains will favor the northern half of the country, while the south works into a drier pattern.
Temps this week continue to gradually warm in the mid-section of the country, with highs in the Dakota’s/Minnesota hitting the mid/upper 80’s. Low pressure in the northwest and southeast keeps temps in these areas below average, while ridging in the midsection of the country allows heat to remain into next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-10-2024
Good morning.
Back and forth we go at the CBOT, as yesterday’s gains are today’s losses. The soy complex is again the leader to start Tuesday, albeit to the downside today instead of the upside. The bull camp would be encouraged by the ability to stay above $4 and $10 respectively, which should be support levels today. On the upside, Friday’s highs appear to be resistance this week, with a close above 4.16 in Dec corn and 10.32 in Nov beans needed to spark a further upside push. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are down 8-10 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quiet/mixed, crude oil futures are down 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 25 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 25 points.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress update again offered little in the way of market moving data; corn conditions were down 1% on the week to 64% g/ex, and soybean conditions were unchanged on the week at 65%.
At the state level, biggest improvements on the week were seen in Ohio (+7%), Pennsylvania (+7%), Illinois (+4%), and Missouri (+3%). Declines were noted in Michigan (-8%), Kansas (-7%), Minnesota (-5%), and Colorado (-3%).
In soybeans, states with the most improvement were North Dakota (+4%), Mississippi (+3%), Tennessee (+3%), Louisiana (+2%), and Illinois (+2%). Declines were seen in Kansas (-6%), North Carolina (-4%), Minnesota (-4%) and Michigan (-4%).
The amount of corn in the dough stage increased 5% on the week to 95%, while the amount of the crop that is dented increased from 60% to 74%. Maturity reached 29% compared to 19% last week. Harvest progress was estimated at 5% complete, compared to 4% last year and the five-year average of 3%.
The amount of the soybean crop setting pods increased from 94% to 97%, while the amount of the crop dropping leaves increased from 13% to 25%. There was no harvest progress estimate yet on the soybean side.
For wheat, spring wheat harvest was seen advancing 15% to 85% complete; winter wheat planting progress was estimated at 6% complete, compared to 2% last week and 5% this week last year. The five-year average planting pace on winter wheat as of this week is 6%.
US Congress on Monday received a letter signed by more than 300 farm and commodity groups urging them to pass a new Farm Bill by the end of the year. The currently extended 2018 version is again set to expire at the end of this month, though most farm programs will continue through the end of the year.
Crude oil futures have so far held last week’s lows to begin this week, despite demand fears out of China due to a continued poor economic outlook. Chinese data overnight however, showed a surprise increase in exports to a two-year high, which helped bring prices off their lows.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR lowered their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 83.8 mmt’s to 82.2 mmt’s on Tuesday, citing “very adverse” weather in Volga, Urals, and Siberia. Same group also lowered corn production from 13.1 mmt’s to 12.0 mmt’s.
Brazilian ag consultancy AgRural estimated first corn planting in central-south Brazil at 15% complete as of last Thursday, which is up 8% from the week prior but behind last year’s 17% pace.
Chinese customs data shows August soybean imports into the country hit a record 12.144 mil tons last month, which was an increase of more than 20% from July’s total. Cumulative imports through August were seen at roughly 70.48 mil tons, which is up around 3% from the same period last year.
Equity markets will be mostly quiet data-wise on Tuesday, with all eyes on this evening’s presidential debate between Harris and Trump. The first, and potentially only, face-to-face meeting between the two more or less restarts a race that was put on hold following the last debate between Trump and current President Biden, which saw Biden’s removal from the race.
24-hour satellite data shows almost zero rainfall across the US on Monday; scattered storms produced trace moisture across the western Plains, while New York and parts of the upper northeast received up to an inch. Florida also picked up anywhere from trace amounts to 2 inches as Gulf activity keeps an active weather pattern in place here.
Overnight updates to Tropical Storm Francine showed the storm’s remnants not making it as far north as was seen yesterday, but otherwise were mostly minimal. The storm is still expected to make landfall as a hurricane Wednesday evening.
Models didn’t see a lot of change from yesterday regarding the storm, with rains still expected to make it up to southern IL/IN by Friday evening. Totals here will likely range from trace amounts to an inch, while further south, totals will range from 2-6″.
Ridging otherwise keeps most of the Midwest dry into the weekend, with storms seen bringing moisture of up to 2″ to areas of Idaho/Montana in the northwest through Friday.
Week-two forecasts continue to fluctuate, with the latest runs showing the EU and GFS ensembles more in line with the EU AI model, which was much wetter yesterday. Rains will favor the northern half of the country, while the south works into a drier pattern.
Temps this week continue to gradually warm in the mid-section of the country, with highs in the Dakota’s/Minnesota hitting the mid/upper 80’s. Low pressure in the northwest and southeast keeps temps in these areas below average, while ridging in the midsection of the country allows heat to remain into next week.
Have a great day.
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