Good morning.
As you maybe could have guessed, ag futures are trading higher to start Wednesday for likely no reason other than we were lower yesterday. Traders will continue to wait for tomorrow’s USDA data before placing any large new bets, while early harvest hedge pressure limits rallies on the top side. Otherwise, newswires will likely again point to macro spillover as an influence in today’s session, with August inflation data due and the next Fed meeting just one week away. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are up 8-10 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, energies are rebounding from yesterday’s lower trade with crude oil futures up $1.20-1.40/bbl; the Dow Jones index is down 120 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending September 6th is expected to show production in a range of 1.050-1.072 mil bbls/day, while stocks for the week are seen between 23.000-23.750 mil bbls. Both figures, on average, would be similar to last week.
US Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack said at a summit in Washington D.C. on Tuesday that he is confident that the 45Z clean fuels tax credit will be finalized by the end of the Biden administration in January. Said Vilsack, “We are acutely aware of the calendar. To the level it can be, it’s on a fast-track.”
News agencies and social media seem to be giving Kamala Harris the slight edge in last night’s presidential debate, which may also be helping soybean prices this morning; this because a Harris White House would presumably see better trade relations with China than one controlled by Trump. This also likely helping energy markets.
Officials from Argentine biotech firm Bioceres said on Tuesday that it would likely take close to two years before the firm starts marketing its recently approved HB4 genetically modified wheat variety in the US.
USDA in August approved the cultivation of HB4, which is a variety that has a higher resistance to drought conditions; both Argentina and Brazil also approved the new variety in recent months. For the US, approval from importers is the next step in the adoption process.
Staying in wheat, traders expect world wheat ending stocks to come in just 1.3 mmt’s lower than the August estimate on average, despite probable cuts of some 3-4 mmt’s in EU production. Offsetting increases are expected in Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan.
Economists expect this morning’s CPI inflation data to show a 0.2% monthly increase in both the regular index and the core index, which would match last month’s readings. On an annual rate, inflation is seen at 2.6% vs 2.9% in July, with the core measure seen at 3.2%, unchanged from July.
Otherwise, chatter from last night’s previously mentioned presidential debate will likely dominate headlines in the financial world Wednesday. Harris put Trump on the defensive early over abortion rights and the January 6th incident, among other things.
Trump, meanwhile, criticized the Biden/Harris administration’s border policies, saying that migrants were taking over US towns and cities. He also mentioned the lack of inflation during his term as President compared to current inflation numbers.
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center showed a slightly more eastward storm track than was seen yesterday, but landfall is still expected in Louisiana this afternoon/evening. The track of the storm continues to get slower as well.
Weather models have also made similar adjustments, with totals in southern IL/IN now forecast to be in a range of just 0.1-1″ compared with up to 2″ seen yesterday. Top end totals further south of 4-5″ are also seen slightly less than yesterday’s 5-6″.
Otherwise, the GFS continues to be wetter in the Dakota’s/Nebraska into this weekend than the EU model, while both maintain near total dryness for the rest of the Corn Belt aside from what moisture Francine is able to provide.
Not a lot of updates in the week-two timeframe overnight, with models seeing a wetter bias for the north/central US and also the east coast, while the south and southeast are seen drier. As mentioned before, Tropical activity in the Gulf keeps these forecasts changeable; aside from Francine, there are 3 additional storms being tracked in the open Atlantic.
On the temp front, ridging keeps the northern/northeastern portion of the Midwest hot over the next 10 days, while troughs on either flank keep temps’ mild in the southeast and also the northwest.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-11-2024
Good morning.
As you maybe could have guessed, ag futures are trading higher to start Wednesday for likely no reason other than we were lower yesterday. Traders will continue to wait for tomorrow’s USDA data before placing any large new bets, while early harvest hedge pressure limits rallies on the top side. Otherwise, newswires will likely again point to macro spillover as an influence in today’s session, with August inflation data due and the next Fed meeting just one week away. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are up 8-10 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, energies are rebounding from yesterday’s lower trade with crude oil futures up $1.20-1.40/bbl; the Dow Jones index is down 120 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending September 6th is expected to show production in a range of 1.050-1.072 mil bbls/day, while stocks for the week are seen between 23.000-23.750 mil bbls. Both figures, on average, would be similar to last week.
US Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack said at a summit in Washington D.C. on Tuesday that he is confident that the 45Z clean fuels tax credit will be finalized by the end of the Biden administration in January. Said Vilsack, “We are acutely aware of the calendar. To the level it can be, it’s on a fast-track.”
News agencies and social media seem to be giving Kamala Harris the slight edge in last night’s presidential debate, which may also be helping soybean prices this morning; this because a Harris White House would presumably see better trade relations with China than one controlled by Trump. This also likely helping energy markets.
Officials from Argentine biotech firm Bioceres said on Tuesday that it would likely take close to two years before the firm starts marketing its recently approved HB4 genetically modified wheat variety in the US.
USDA in August approved the cultivation of HB4, which is a variety that has a higher resistance to drought conditions; both Argentina and Brazil also approved the new variety in recent months. For the US, approval from importers is the next step in the adoption process.
Staying in wheat, traders expect world wheat ending stocks to come in just 1.3 mmt’s lower than the August estimate on average, despite probable cuts of some 3-4 mmt’s in EU production. Offsetting increases are expected in Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan.
Economists expect this morning’s CPI inflation data to show a 0.2% monthly increase in both the regular index and the core index, which would match last month’s readings. On an annual rate, inflation is seen at 2.6% vs 2.9% in July, with the core measure seen at 3.2%, unchanged from July.
Otherwise, chatter from last night’s previously mentioned presidential debate will likely dominate headlines in the financial world Wednesday. Harris put Trump on the defensive early over abortion rights and the January 6th incident, among other things.
Trump, meanwhile, criticized the Biden/Harris administration’s border policies, saying that migrants were taking over US towns and cities. He also mentioned the lack of inflation during his term as President compared to current inflation numbers.
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center showed a slightly more eastward storm track than was seen yesterday, but landfall is still expected in Louisiana this afternoon/evening. The track of the storm continues to get slower as well.
Weather models have also made similar adjustments, with totals in southern IL/IN now forecast to be in a range of just 0.1-1″ compared with up to 2″ seen yesterday. Top end totals further south of 4-5″ are also seen slightly less than yesterday’s 5-6″.
Otherwise, the GFS continues to be wetter in the Dakota’s/Nebraska into this weekend than the EU model, while both maintain near total dryness for the rest of the Corn Belt aside from what moisture Francine is able to provide.
Not a lot of updates in the week-two timeframe overnight, with models seeing a wetter bias for the north/central US and also the east coast, while the south and southeast are seen drier. As mentioned before, Tropical activity in the Gulf keeps these forecasts changeable; aside from Francine, there are 3 additional storms being tracked in the open Atlantic.
On the temp front, ridging keeps the northern/northeastern portion of the Midwest hot over the next 10 days, while troughs on either flank keep temps’ mild in the southeast and also the northwest.
Have a great day.
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