Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are trading slightly higher to start the last trading session of the week following Thursday’s big data day. As we mentioned yesterday, attention will quickly return to harvest, as yesterday’s numbers did not materially alter the price outlook in the short-term. Dry weather continues to speed crops to the finish line, with the full onset of harvest likely across most of the Midwest in the next two weeks. Going into next week, traders in the ag markets will also have to contend with more macro headlines, as the Fed’s September policy meeting is set for the 17th and 18th. While the likely result has been talked about for weeks (arguably months), interest rate chatter presumably dominates headlines into mid-week. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are up 1-3 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 10-11 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures gapped higher to start Friday and are up another 60-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both fractionally higher.
Short term resistance going into next week looks to be around the 10.30 level for November soybeans, and near the 4.20 level on December corn. Markets will need a close above these levels to see further upside action nearby.
As mentioned previously, yesterday’s WASDE report did not offer a lot of new updates to the market.
Conab also released final estimates for the 2023/24 Brazil corn and soybean crops yesterday, with numbers that were similarly dull to the USDA data; to view our Brazilian corn and soybean production maps.
Private Brazilian soybean group Abiove on Thursday lowered their estimate of the country’s 2023/24 soybean crop to 153 mmt’s, which was down roughly 200k mt’s from last month. The group left crush and export estimates for the season unchanged from last month, but dropped ending stocks by 1.5% to 4.74 mmt’s, and also raised imports by 16% to 930k mt’s.
According to EarthDaily Agro, another private Brazilian ag firm who specializes in satellite-based analytical data, soil moisture in Mato Grosso and Parana is at the lowest level in the last 30 years following a drier than normal winter; these two states account for roughly 40% of Brazil’s soybean production.
In Argentina, the Rosario Board of Trade said in its latest monthly estimates that soybean planted area was expected to increase by nearly 1.3 million ha’s this year, or 7.5%, to 17.7 mil ha’s. Production is seen between 52-53 mmt’s, compared to 50 last year.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 7th were down nearly 18% from last week to 395k tons; corn shipments were down 19% to 247k tons, and soybean shipments were down 27% to 103k tons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that a Russian missile hit a pedestrian grain ship carrying wheat to Egypt immediately after it exited Ukrainian waters. There were no casualties reported in the attack.
Financial market participants continue to debate the size of next week’s rate cut, with the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning now again showing a better than 40% chance of a 50 basis point cut next Wednesday, while there’s a corresponding 57% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
Other news in the financial world on Friday includes a strike by Boeing factory workers, who walked off the job for the first time since 2008. Union members rejected the company’s latest labor contract, while manufacturing at its Seattle hub ceased at midnight last night. The main gripe by workers is stagnated wages over the past 16 years that haven’t accounted for increasing living costs.
As Francine continues to spin through the southeast, satellite data shows rainfall totals of close to 8″ along parts of the Louisiana coast, while areas farther inland through Mississippi have seen a more general 2-4″ in the last 48 hours. Through the weekend, the EU model sees the chance for up to an additional 5″ in parts of AL/GA, while the GFS only sees another 1-2″ in these areas.
The EU model has also brought back rainfall chances in a band from OK up to the Dakota’s through Sunday night, with spotty totals of trace to a half inch advertised; the GFS is similar.
Aside from that, things look to stay mostly quiet on the weather front in the Midwest through the weekend. Rinse and repeat on temps for the most part, as highs through the Corn Belt routinely stay in the mid 80’s through next week. As we’ve mentioned all week, troughs in the northwest and the southeast will keep cooler air in these areas while ridging in the central part of the country keeps heat in place.
Otherwise, the rest of the Midwest looks to stay mostly dry through the weekend; the EU has come into better agreement with the GFS on rains in the Dakota’s/Nebraska into Sunday/Monday, but stays mostly dry for the rest of the Corn Belt.
Forecasts for week two continue to show a broad area with an above average chance at precipitation through the mid-section of the country and north into Canada, and also along the east coast, while the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys hold in an average to slightly below average precipitation pattern. This will help early harvest pace in the east if accurate.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-13-2024
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are trading slightly higher to start the last trading session of the week following Thursday’s big data day. As we mentioned yesterday, attention will quickly return to harvest, as yesterday’s numbers did not materially alter the price outlook in the short-term. Dry weather continues to speed crops to the finish line, with the full onset of harvest likely across most of the Midwest in the next two weeks. Going into next week, traders in the ag markets will also have to contend with more macro headlines, as the Fed’s September policy meeting is set for the 17th and 18th. While the likely result has been talked about for weeks (arguably months), interest rate chatter presumably dominates headlines into mid-week. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are up 1-3 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 10-11 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures gapped higher to start Friday and are up another 60-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both fractionally higher.
Short term resistance going into next week looks to be around the 10.30 level for November soybeans, and near the 4.20 level on December corn. Markets will need a close above these levels to see further upside action nearby.
As mentioned previously, yesterday’s WASDE report did not offer a lot of new updates to the market.
Conab also released final estimates for the 2023/24 Brazil corn and soybean crops yesterday, with numbers that were similarly dull to the USDA data; to view our Brazilian corn and soybean production maps.
Private Brazilian soybean group Abiove on Thursday lowered their estimate of the country’s 2023/24 soybean crop to 153 mmt’s, which was down roughly 200k mt’s from last month. The group left crush and export estimates for the season unchanged from last month, but dropped ending stocks by 1.5% to 4.74 mmt’s, and also raised imports by 16% to 930k mt’s.
According to EarthDaily Agro, another private Brazilian ag firm who specializes in satellite-based analytical data, soil moisture in Mato Grosso and Parana is at the lowest level in the last 30 years following a drier than normal winter; these two states account for roughly 40% of Brazil’s soybean production.
In Argentina, the Rosario Board of Trade said in its latest monthly estimates that soybean planted area was expected to increase by nearly 1.3 million ha’s this year, or 7.5%, to 17.7 mil ha’s. Production is seen between 52-53 mmt’s, compared to 50 last year.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 7th were down nearly 18% from last week to 395k tons; corn shipments were down 19% to 247k tons, and soybean shipments were down 27% to 103k tons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that a Russian missile hit a pedestrian grain ship carrying wheat to Egypt immediately after it exited Ukrainian waters. There were no casualties reported in the attack.
Financial market participants continue to debate the size of next week’s rate cut, with the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning now again showing a better than 40% chance of a 50 basis point cut next Wednesday, while there’s a corresponding 57% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
Other news in the financial world on Friday includes a strike by Boeing factory workers, who walked off the job for the first time since 2008. Union members rejected the company’s latest labor contract, while manufacturing at its Seattle hub ceased at midnight last night. The main gripe by workers is stagnated wages over the past 16 years that haven’t accounted for increasing living costs.
As Francine continues to spin through the southeast, satellite data shows rainfall totals of close to 8″ along parts of the Louisiana coast, while areas farther inland through Mississippi have seen a more general 2-4″ in the last 48 hours. Through the weekend, the EU model sees the chance for up to an additional 5″ in parts of AL/GA, while the GFS only sees another 1-2″ in these areas.
The EU model has also brought back rainfall chances in a band from OK up to the Dakota’s through Sunday night, with spotty totals of trace to a half inch advertised; the GFS is similar.
Aside from that, things look to stay mostly quiet on the weather front in the Midwest through the weekend. Rinse and repeat on temps for the most part, as highs through the Corn Belt routinely stay in the mid 80’s through next week. As we’ve mentioned all week, troughs in the northwest and the southeast will keep cooler air in these areas while ridging in the central part of the country keeps heat in place.
Otherwise, the rest of the Midwest looks to stay mostly dry through the weekend; the EU has come into better agreement with the GFS on rains in the Dakota’s/Nebraska into Sunday/Monday, but stays mostly dry for the rest of the Corn Belt.
Forecasts for week two continue to show a broad area with an above average chance at precipitation through the mid-section of the country and north into Canada, and also along the east coast, while the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys hold in an average to slightly below average precipitation pattern. This will help early harvest pace in the east if accurate.
Have a great day.
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