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Grain Comments: 09.14.23

Lethargic trade gave us mixed overnight futures with corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans on both sides of unchanged, and wheat 3-4 cents lower. The US dollar was steady, energies were mixed, and equities were stronger.

 

Today’s Reports: Export Sales, Stats Canada Production, PPI

 

  • Sep futures expire today
  • China booking more SAM fall soybeans
  • Ukraine now attacking Russian ports

 

Now that the monthly WASDE report is out of the way trade will quickly revert to monitoring the advancing harvest in the United States. Early harvest reports on corn are highly variable which is not surprising given the wide range of weather conditions that were experienced in the growing season. It is starting to appear that the fringe areas are seeing higher yields than the heart of the Corn Belt which is not surprising given recent weather trends. The question now is if these regions can see high enough production to offset losses in others. The main area of concern on the crops is upper Iowa, lower Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Even then crop reports are mixed. We will also now start to see trade prepare for the quarterly stocks data that will be released on September 29th. This will confirm our 2022/23 ending stocks on corn and soybeans. While this data will be driving the domestic market, on the global side trade is focused on South American weather and planting reports. All of Brazil will be open for soybean planting this coming Saturday, but some farmers may hold off on seeding until they see a build in soil moisture. Planting is also underway on the first corn crop in Argentina.

 

Highlights

* World market evaluating Russian sanctions

* Ukraine opposes easing any current sanctions

* China currency continues to soften

* Russia puts total grain production at 130 mmt

* Russia grain crop est +7 mmt

* Weekly ethanol production +189,000 bbl

* Weekly ethanol reserves -450,000 bbl

* More EU members to extend Ukraine import bans

* Argentine river tolls causing SAM issues

* Argentina owed $150 million in fees

 

Corn

* Weekly ethanol use was 104 mbu

* Brazil corn planting at 20%

* Wet weather slowing Safrinha harvest

* Brazil Safrinha 51.7% sold

* Argentina planting getting underway

 

Soybeans

* Peso incentive raises Argentine sales

* Arg farmers sell 1 mmt in past week

* All Brazil to start planting Saturday

* Brazil 22/23 soy crop 80.7% sold

* Brazil 23/24 crop sales 18%

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