Grain Comments: 09.15.23

Consolidation gave us mixed overnight trade with corn on both sides of unchanged, soybeans 3-4 cents lower, and wheat 2-3 cents higher. The US dollar was steady while energies and equities were mixed.

Today’s Reports: August NOPA Crush

• Brazil soy planting to fully start tomorrow
• EU bans on Ukraine imports expire today
• 54% of corn, 48% of US soybeans in drought

Harvest is starting to gain momentum across the Corn Belt, but progress is slower than expected. Most activity is taking place on corn right now which is several days sooner than usual in most regions. Sizable pushes are being given out for early harvested bushels and farmers are trying to capture this premium. Early yield results are highly variable which is not surprising given growing season conditions. Moisture content is dropping though, and most farmers are willing to let the crop stand as long as possible to minimize expenses. The general thought is producers will store corn this year and sell soybeans which is also causing some buyers to extend bids to secure coverage. This harvest activity along with planting in South America will be the main fundamental influences on the mark over the next few weeks. Soybean planting is progressing in Brazil where early fieldwork has been allowed, but starting tomorrow all regions of the country will be able to start. The first corn crop is also being planted in Brazil but has been slowed from recent rainfall. Corn planting is also progressing in Argentina, but there again rains have slowed progress. This weekend also brings the expiration of the EU ban on Ukraine imports, but many members have stated they will enforce individual restrictions if the entire group chooses not to.

Highlights

• Daily sales reports slow
• Brazil sees 50 day delay to exports
• Chinese currency keeps weakening
• Weak currency impacts imports
• Panama Canal to have delays into 2024
• Delays may impact US consumer spending
• China starting to stocks up commodities for holidays
• Russia attacks more Ukraine infrastructure
• Lawmakers push ethanol use
• Trade looking forward to Sep 29^th stocks data

Corn

• Weekly exports 29.7 mbu
• China 22/23 imports est 18.5 mmt
• China imports -15.5% from last year
• Ukraine YTD exports 2.3 mmt
• Ukraine exports -32.5%

Soybeans

• Weekly sales 25.9 mbu
• China 22/23 imports est 99.7 mmt
• China 23/24 imports est 97.3 mmt
• China 1/3 covered for Nov
• NOPA August crush est 167.8 mbu