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Grain Comments: 09.18.23

Futures were mostly lower to start the week with corn steady to -1, soybeans 3-5 lower, and wheat down 8-10 cents. The US dollar was steady, energies were mixed, and equities were higher.

 

Today’s Reports: Crop Progress, Export Inspections

 

  • Grain vessels arrive in Ukraine to load
  • Ratings expected to decline 1-2% tonight
  • Corn harvest est 9-10%

 

Harvest will start to gain momentum across the United States this week. We have seen scattered activity for the past several weeks, but we are now at a stage where more fieldwork will take place in the heart of the Corn Belt. This is what trade has been waiting for to see if yields are going to be as good or as bad as reports have indicated. Trade will also be closely monitoring quality reports, primarily on corn. There are thoughts the late August and early September heat have reduced corn test weight and caused shallow kernels. It is quite likely that as with any other crop there will be regions of the US with poor quality and parts with exceptionally good crops. The weekly crop progress report will be released after the close today and trade is fully expecting another reduction in ratings. This really would not be a surprise as crop conditions do tend to decrease with maturity. Trade was expecting a large decline last week as well, but ratings only slipped 1 point lower on corn and soybeans. Given the start to harvest these ratings will have much less of an impact on price discovery. The outside markets will gain attention this week as the Federal Reserve will meet Tuesday and Wednesday, giving us another chance for interest rate adjustments.

 

Highlights

* Black Sea corridor talks this week

* Drought still impacting South America

* Australian drought intensifies

* 70% chance of strong El Nino this winter

* Only 3% chance of El Nino next spring

* US rains not enough to benefit river levels

* More dredging expected this week

* Ukraine now focused on attacking Russian ports

* Russia holding 25% of worlds exportable wheat

* Importers focused on SAM offers

 

Corn

* Dec finished last week -7 ½ cents

* US harvest progressing

* Privates continue to question USDA yield est

* US production still larger than demand

* World stocks to use limiting demand for US

 

Soybeans

* Nov was 22 ¾ cents last week

* Aug NOPA crush 161.45 mbu

* Yearly crush -5 to 7 mbu from USDA est

* Soy oil supports entire complex

* Meal becoming overpriced

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