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Grain Comments: 09.19.23

Overnight trade remained weak with corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat down 5-7 cents. The US dollar was lower, equities higher, and energies mixed.

 

Today’s Reports: Fed Meeting

 

  • Fast US harvest expected
  • Vessels head to Ukraine to load
  • September average retail gasoline values record high

 

The condition of the US corn and soybean crops came in at or above trade expectations for the week. The US corn crop is now rated 51% Good/Excellent, down 1 point on the week. The corn crop is also 54% mature, up 10% from the 5-year average. Corn harvest has reached 9% with the average for this date being 7%. The soybean crop rating held steady on the week at 52% G/E when a decline was forecast. Soybean harvest was reported at 5%, up 1% from average. The spring wheat crop is now 93% planted which is equal to the five-year average. Winter wheat planting is 1% slower than normal at 15% complete. Now that harvest is advancing on both corn and soybeans weekly crop ratings will have much less of an impact on price discovery. While harvest is advancing across the US, yield data remains variable, which is not a surprise. Some regions are seeing well above normal yields, while others are seeing numbers up to 20% under average. This is not necessarily in different regions of the Corn Belt, but in local areas of the country. The lack of widespread rains is being credited for much of this as not all areas received rains at the same time. Trade is starting to show more interest on the demand side of balance sheets though, and this is also tempering reaction to mixed yields at this time.

 

Highlights

* Fed meeting today/tomorrow

* 93% chance of holding rate steady

* China to lower reserve needs for bankers

* This is China’s 2nd reduction

* Chinese retail sales did increase 4.5% in August

* Brazil to see better rains

* Rains benefit Argentine crops

* Deadline for Farm Bill provisions is Sep 30th

* Lawmakers ask for extensions to Dec 31st

* US gasoline demand starting to fall

 

Corn

* Year to year export sales -9%

* Export inspections -12% from estimates

* Reports of elevated PNW export interest

* US yields remain variable

* Funds corn short largest since August 2020

 

Soybeans

* YTD soybean sales -34%

* Export loadings -6% from expectations

* Farmers sales in Brazil slow

* Brazil sees below normal precipitation

* Oilseed importers passing on US offers

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