Grain Comments: 09.16.26

Good morning. It’s been more of the same at the CBOT throughout the overnight hours to get Wednesday trade started, with markets again generally two-sided and quiet for the most part as there continues to be a wait-and-see feel to the space ahead of next week’s China meeting. It’s not just the China meeting, but traders are also waiting for new details out of the Black Sea, new details out of the Middle East, and new yield data out of the fields before placing new bets; they’re already established length tells us where their bias lies regarding those matters, but one should seemingly have a plan in place for if/when that bias changes. While it doesn’t seem to be a nearby risk today, funds won’t stay this long the ag space forever.

Corn futures at mid-week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; Fed FOMC Meeting

• This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA for the week ending September 11th is expected to show average daily ethanol production in the US during the week ending September 11th between 1.080-1.104 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are estimated between 24.50-25.40 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be down from the week prior.

• We touched on it yesterday afternoon, but Brazil’s CONAB put out initial estimates for 2026/27 corn and soybean production on Tuesday; the group pegged soybean production at 181.6 MMTs and pegged total corn production at 148 MMTs, both up slightly from the current season. The group added that soybean planted area expansion was expected to be the smallest in the last 20 years and that first crop corn planting was just under 18% planted.

• Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the US and China were discussing lowering tariffs on certain goods including American energy and agricultural shipments at the upcoming summit next week, signaling that an extension of the trade truce reached nearly a year ago now could be in the works. Sources familiar say next week’s meeting is also likely to result in lower duties on Chinese inputs for US manufacturers.

• Ahead of initial crop estimates for the 2026/27 season from StatsCanada that are due out later this morning, traders and analysts say harvest has gotten off to a slow start and that crop quality has likely been in decline due to excessive moisture since the beginning of August, especially in western growing regions. Analysts also note that the damage isn’t likely to show up in today’s estimates due to it showing up largely after the group’s analysis of the crop was conducted. Estimates are model-based and not the result of collected survey data.

• While focus has been exports and the harvest of the current crop, Ukraine’s Ag Minister said in a statement Tuesday that winter grain planting is some 35% behind a year ago due in part to the impacts of the war and financial strain on farmers, but also due to dry soil conditions in a lot of the country’s main growing regions.

• Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon said in a report this week that, in their opinion, the risk of prolonged shipping disruption in the Black Sea is being “significantly underpriced,” and that it seems traders still expect grain flows to normalize sooner rather than later. Combined wheat exports out of Russia and Ukraine are expected to total just 8 mil tons in the July-Sep period this year, which if accurate, would be the lowest total since the 2010-2011 season.