Grain Comments: 09.17.26

Good morning. Choppy, directionless trade continues to be the theme at the CBOT this week, with corn and soybean futures having spent the last several hours of the overnight session trading in narrow 2-3 cent ranges, while the wheat market sags and the products are mixed on what appears to be some measure of spread activity. With ag space news still stagnant and little changed from previous days this week, there’s a chance the trade has a bit of a macro lean on Thursday and into the end of the week following the Fed’s first rate hike in more than three years. On one hand, the ongoing fight against inflation is a market negative from the standpoint of sidelined money and a poor overall economic outlook, but on the other hand, should traders continue to see ag commodities as a good hedge, it should keep fund length elevated for the foreseeable future which should be supportive.

Corn futures to get Thursday started are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and Chicago wheat futures are trading 10-11 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims

• This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending September 10th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 700k – 2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 900k-2.4 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 150k-500k MTs. On average, the corn and bean figures would be down from last week, while wheat would be higher.

• The Federal Reserve on Wednesday expectedly raised interest rates a quarter percentage point to the 3.75%-4.0% range, marking the first such increase in more than three years on a unanimous 12-0 vote that signals the fight against inflation remains one of the administration’s number one priorities. Most members also indicated that another increase was likely before the end of the year.

• On the non-China trade front, President Trump this week threatened heavy tariffs on the EU if it goes ahead with making Canada an associate member of the bloc, while also noting that the US and Mexico were “very close” on inking a new trade deal. Details on either situation are lacking.

• In a quarterly update, FranceAgriMer on Wednesday trimmed another million tons off its wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 season, now estimating shipments at just 13.5 MMTs; if accurate, this figure would be down some 12% from the previous season, with the bulk of the losses coming from declines in exports to non-EU countries. Corn exports in the season are seen at just 2.5 MMTs, down some 60% from the year prior.

• The USDA on Wednesday released text outlining a plan to boost US exports of biofuels, indicating that further growth in the sector is dependent on changing global policies that currently limit the amount of fuels made from American crops that other countries can import. The plan specifically signals out the EU and Brazil for practices that encourage alternatives to American biofuels, and also makes mention of increased exports to countries like Mexico and India.

• At meetings held during August and September with some of the countries largest grain exporters, the Russian ag ministry said associated parties must find ways to maintain the country’s title as leading global wheat exporter despite ongoing disruptions to shipping and damage to ports and other export facilities. The scale of the efforts highlights the political significance to Putin, as keeping the position allows Russia to exert geopolitical pressure via grain flows.

• Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said Wednesday that the USDA was preparing to reopen a New Mexico border crossing to livestock trade next week, marking the second such instance following closures due to the spread of New World Screwworm. However, Rollins also indicated that should threats resume, the crossings would quickly be shuttered again while adding that the last 20 days had proven successful for the border crossing in Douglas, AZ.