Grain Comments: 09.20.24

Good morning. Happy Friday. Quiet/mixed has been the trade in the ag markets to start the last day of the week in Chicago. As mentioned yesterday, we look for hedge selling to pick up going into the close today as the US harvest gains considerable steam the next 48 hours. Rains early next week will possibly cause a brief slowdown in progress, but due to ample dryness through the last half of August and into September, moisture likely soaks in rather quickly which allows farmers to get back in the combines. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are also around a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points, and the NASDAQ is down 75 points. Gold futures also made new contract highs again this morning.

Today’s Reports: CFTC Commitment of Traders

• The September cattle on feed report, out at 2pm this afternoon, is expected to show cattle on feed as of September 1 at 11.195 mil head, or 100.9% of last year. August marketings are seen at 96.6% of last year at 1.820 mil head, while placements in August are estimated at 1.983 mil head, which would be 99% of last year.

• Of note on yesterday’s weekly export sales report, the USDA showed 88,400 mt’s of soybean cancelations from Argentina; these sales raised eyebrows last week, but appear to have either been reported in error or just simply canceled this week.

• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly report, estimated corn planting in Argentina at 7.1% on Thursday, which would be about 2% further along than the same week last year. Soybean planting in the country has not yet started.

• The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday lowered its estimate of EU total grain production in the 2024/25 season to 263.7 mmt’s, down from the previous estimate of 267.5 mmt’s. Wheat stocks were adjust slightly higher to 267 mmt’s, while corn stocks were trimmed slightly to 276 mmt’s.

• According to the EPA, the US generated fewer blending credits in August vs July; D6 credits (ethanol) were seen at 1.32 bil vs 1.33 bil in July, while D4 credits (biodiesel) were seen at 639 mil vs 828 mil in July.

• Commercial US beef production in the month of August was seen at 2.29 bil lbs, down around 3.2% from last year. Pork production in the month was also seen at 2.29 bil lbs, which was down 0.3% from last year. Cattle slaughter was down 6.5% from last year at 2.7 mil head, while hog slaughter was down 2% at 10.904 mil head.

• Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 14th were seen at 367k tons, down about 7% from the week prior. Corn shipments were down 13% at 215k tons, and soybean shipments were up 13.6% at 117k tons.

• Yesterday morning’s drought monitor update showed 26% of US corn production is experiencing D1-D4 drought conditions, up from 18% last week; 33% of US soybean production is experiencing the same conditions, up from 26% last week.

• The Bank of Japan expectedly left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Friday, which looks to wrap up the global week of interest rate news. Market reaction was muted, with only a small strengthening of the Japanese Yen noted.

• Satellite data shows a band of showers provided light rainfall to parts of IA/MN/WI on Thursday, while the rest of the Midwest and western half of the country was mostly dry. The southeast and parts of NC/VA also again saw light showers on Thursday.

• Through the weekend, the EU model maintains a wetter bias than the GFS model into early Monday morning, but the two are in agreement that at least some amount of moisture will fall from western KS/NE to IN/OH/MI into early next week. The EU estimates up to 2.5″, while the GFS is showing totals that top out around 1″.

• Temps in the central part of the country stay hot for about two more days, before a low pressure system brings a cold front through that will drop daytime highs back to more seasonal levels. High’s next week look to be in the mid 70’s for most of the Corn Belt.

Week-two forecasts will be watched coming out of the weekend, as they continue to show a wet bias for the southeastern third of the country, while most everywhere else will be on the side.