Good morning.
Commodities are markets are trading generally higher to start the last full week of trade in the month of September, with the ag space being led to the upside by the soy complex. The last couple weeks’ theme of short covering by managed money traders will likely continue this week at least into Friday, as the USDA’s quarterly stocks and acreage report is due out one week from today and the trade will presumably take a cautious approach to the new government numbers; in June, USDA’s stocks estimates were both significantly higher than last year and also well above what the trade had anticipated, which has some expecting similar findings next Monday. Corn futures this morning are trading 4-6 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 10-13 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-10 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly higher as well, crude oil futures are up 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points also. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 45 points. Gold is up around $1/oz and made new contract highs again overnight.
Last week’s CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending September 17th showed managed money traders in the week were sellers of 2,681 contracts of corn, buyers of 8,188 contracts of soybeans, and buyers of 4,365 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Managed money, as of Tuesday the 17th, is now seen net-short 134,814 contracts of corn, net-short 122,415 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 25,033 contracts of Chicago wheat. In soy products, funds are net-long 39,758 contracts of soybean meal (+2,710) and are net-short 50,588 contracts of soybean oil (-2,972).
Friday afternoon’s cattle on feed report for September showed the US feedlot herd as of September 1 at 11.198 mil head, or 101% of last year. Placements in August were down 1% at 1.975 mil head, and marketings in August were down 4% at 1.818 mil head.
Brazilian ag consulting firm Safras & Mercado estimated soybean planting in the country at 0.5% complete as of Friday the 20th; this compares to 1.6% as of the same day last year, and the current five-year average for this date of 1.5%. The group sees 2024/25 soybean production at 171.78 mmt’s, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 169.0 mmt’s.
As of Friday, total grains harvested in Ukraine were seen at 31.9 mmt’s in the current season, which compares to 29.8 mmt’s as of roughly the same day last year according to the country’s ag ministry. Corn harvest seen at 2.4 mmt’s compared to 182.5k mt’s last year.
Argentina’s Economy Minister announced over the weekend that the country is preparing specs on an international tender to dredge the Parana River, which is the country’s main waterway for soy exports. The current timeline sees the tender published by the end of this year, with bids set to open in May and the contract to be awarded by Q3 2025; the tender is expected to be for a 30-year contract.
China’s state-owned news outlet is reporting that President Xi Jinping has urged authorities to boost efforts to increase farmer income and overall ag-sector efficiency over the weekend, as the country is set to harvest another large crop despite poor weather through the growing season.
US Federally inspected pork production in the week ending September 21st was seen at 529 mil lbs., which was down 1.9% from last week; beef production in the week totaled 520 mil lbs., which was down 1.3% from last week. For the year, total pork production is up 1.6% from last year, while total beef production is down 1.0%.
Equity traders will start the week with interest on a trio of Fed speakers who are set to make comments on Monday, while the day’s data slate is otherwise quiet. Later in the week, personal consumption/GDP data for Q2 will be released, and Fed Chair Powell is set to give comments on Thursday regarding last week’s 50-basis point interest rate cut.
Weekend rains provided some of the best moisture in weeks across the western Corn Belt, with lesser, more scattered amounts seen in the east; Totals across TX/OK/KS/MO ranged from 0.5″-2″ generally speaking, while totals across the I-states were more in the 0.01″-0.5″ range according to satellite data.
Looking ahead to this week, models see an early week low pressure system providing additional storms/rainfall to the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys, with totals up to 2″ possible across MO, IL, IN, OH, and MI by early Wednesday morning.
The southeastern portion of the country looks to also receive additional moisture by the end of the week, as another tropical storm system that is currently in the Gulf is expected to come across the Florida panhandle by late Thursday/early Friday. Rainfall totals of up to 5″ are currently being forecast from this storm, but exact amounts/locations will likely fluctuate through the week.
Temperature-wise, a cold front brought temps back down to much more seasonal levels over the weekend; high pressure looks to return heat to the northwestern part of the country and into Canada by the middle of this week, with high’s reaching the 90’s for a day or two in parts of the Dakota’s.
Generally speaking, highs through most of the Corn Belt will otherwise stay in the mid/upper 70’s, with nighttime lows for the most part not dropping below 50 into next weekend. The GFS sees a cooler shift beyond October 3rd, but heat further north in Canada keeps early frost risks into the opening days of October minimal.
Week-two forecasts have shifted to a drier outlook, as tropical storm potential in the gulf is pulled into the week-one forecast. The EU ensemble model maintains a wetter bias into parts of the eastern Corn Belt, while the GFS ensemble and the EU AI models see moisture confined more to the open Atlantic. As has been the case recently, the presence of tropical storm activity keeps these forecasts changeable.
Rains continued to benefit areas of southern Brazil and far northern Argentina over the weekend, with satellite data showing totals ranging from 0.01″ to up to 4″ in some places. These areas look to stay in a wetter bias through this week, while the forecast otherwise continues to keep rains limited for the rest of central Brazil for another roughly two weeks.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-23-2024
Good morning.
Commodities are markets are trading generally higher to start the last full week of trade in the month of September, with the ag space being led to the upside by the soy complex. The last couple weeks’ theme of short covering by managed money traders will likely continue this week at least into Friday, as the USDA’s quarterly stocks and acreage report is due out one week from today and the trade will presumably take a cautious approach to the new government numbers; in June, USDA’s stocks estimates were both significantly higher than last year and also well above what the trade had anticipated, which has some expecting similar findings next Monday. Corn futures this morning are trading 4-6 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 10-13 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-10 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly higher as well, crude oil futures are up 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points also. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 45 points. Gold is up around $1/oz and made new contract highs again overnight.
Last week’s CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending September 17th showed managed money traders in the week were sellers of 2,681 contracts of corn, buyers of 8,188 contracts of soybeans, and buyers of 4,365 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Managed money, as of Tuesday the 17th, is now seen net-short 134,814 contracts of corn, net-short 122,415 contracts of soybeans, and net-short 25,033 contracts of Chicago wheat. In soy products, funds are net-long 39,758 contracts of soybean meal (+2,710) and are net-short 50,588 contracts of soybean oil (-2,972).
Friday afternoon’s cattle on feed report for September showed the US feedlot herd as of September 1 at 11.198 mil head, or 101% of last year. Placements in August were down 1% at 1.975 mil head, and marketings in August were down 4% at 1.818 mil head.
Brazilian ag consulting firm Safras & Mercado estimated soybean planting in the country at 0.5% complete as of Friday the 20th; this compares to 1.6% as of the same day last year, and the current five-year average for this date of 1.5%. The group sees 2024/25 soybean production at 171.78 mmt’s, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 169.0 mmt’s.
As of Friday, total grains harvested in Ukraine were seen at 31.9 mmt’s in the current season, which compares to 29.8 mmt’s as of roughly the same day last year according to the country’s ag ministry. Corn harvest seen at 2.4 mmt’s compared to 182.5k mt’s last year.
Argentina’s Economy Minister announced over the weekend that the country is preparing specs on an international tender to dredge the Parana River, which is the country’s main waterway for soy exports. The current timeline sees the tender published by the end of this year, with bids set to open in May and the contract to be awarded by Q3 2025; the tender is expected to be for a 30-year contract.
China’s state-owned news outlet is reporting that President Xi Jinping has urged authorities to boost efforts to increase farmer income and overall ag-sector efficiency over the weekend, as the country is set to harvest another large crop despite poor weather through the growing season.
US Federally inspected pork production in the week ending September 21st was seen at 529 mil lbs., which was down 1.9% from last week; beef production in the week totaled 520 mil lbs., which was down 1.3% from last week. For the year, total pork production is up 1.6% from last year, while total beef production is down 1.0%.
Equity traders will start the week with interest on a trio of Fed speakers who are set to make comments on Monday, while the day’s data slate is otherwise quiet. Later in the week, personal consumption/GDP data for Q2 will be released, and Fed Chair Powell is set to give comments on Thursday regarding last week’s 50-basis point interest rate cut.
Weekend rains provided some of the best moisture in weeks across the western Corn Belt, with lesser, more scattered amounts seen in the east; Totals across TX/OK/KS/MO ranged from 0.5″-2″ generally speaking, while totals across the I-states were more in the 0.01″-0.5″ range according to satellite data.
Looking ahead to this week, models see an early week low pressure system providing additional storms/rainfall to the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys, with totals up to 2″ possible across MO, IL, IN, OH, and MI by early Wednesday morning.
The southeastern portion of the country looks to also receive additional moisture by the end of the week, as another tropical storm system that is currently in the Gulf is expected to come across the Florida panhandle by late Thursday/early Friday. Rainfall totals of up to 5″ are currently being forecast from this storm, but exact amounts/locations will likely fluctuate through the week.
Temperature-wise, a cold front brought temps back down to much more seasonal levels over the weekend; high pressure looks to return heat to the northwestern part of the country and into Canada by the middle of this week, with high’s reaching the 90’s for a day or two in parts of the Dakota’s.
Generally speaking, highs through most of the Corn Belt will otherwise stay in the mid/upper 70’s, with nighttime lows for the most part not dropping below 50 into next weekend. The GFS sees a cooler shift beyond October 3rd, but heat further north in Canada keeps early frost risks into the opening days of October minimal.
Week-two forecasts have shifted to a drier outlook, as tropical storm potential in the gulf is pulled into the week-one forecast. The EU ensemble model maintains a wetter bias into parts of the eastern Corn Belt, while the GFS ensemble and the EU AI models see moisture confined more to the open Atlantic. As has been the case recently, the presence of tropical storm activity keeps these forecasts changeable.
Rains continued to benefit areas of southern Brazil and far northern Argentina over the weekend, with satellite data showing totals ranging from 0.01″ to up to 4″ in some places. These areas look to stay in a wetter bias through this week, while the forecast otherwise continues to keep rains limited for the rest of central Brazil for another roughly two weeks.
Have a great day.
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