Good morning.
Monday trade at the CBOT is much the same as how it ended the week last week on Friday, with soybeans having extended losses to new lows so far in the overnight session and have pulled the rest of the space down with them. Friday’s Trump-China call was disappointing relative to expectations, but we cautioned all week last week that a call to wrap-up a TikTok may not have anything to do with ag or soybeans, which ended up being the case. We’ve said it all summer, but it seems a Phase One-like ag agreement is not on the table as a possible outcome this time around, and Friday’s events further solidified this thought and have produced bearish headwinds this morning. Aside from this, good rains across most of the Midwest late last week and over the weekend likely have produced a couple days of slower harvest pace, which could limit the amount of hedge selling seen early this week. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 12-14 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $4/ton and soybean oil is down around 70 points. Outside markets are quietly lower to start the week, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 90 points.
Friday afternoon’s weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that funds in the week ending September 16th were buyers of 19,878 contracts of corn (now net-short 80,051), buyers of 17,002 contracts of soybeans (net-long 2,287), and buyers of 6,569 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 85,825). In the soy products, funds were buyers of 3,013 contracts of meal (net-short 82,772) and buyers of 17,727 contracts of oil (net-long 21,388).
Also, out Friday afternoon was the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, which showed the US feedlot herd as of September 1st at 11.080 million head, which was down 1% from last year and matched expectations. Placements in August were seen at 1.780 million head, down 10% from last year, and marketings at 1.571 million head were down 14% from last year.
Private US ag consultancy S&P Global (formerly Informa) released their first acreage estimates for the 2025/26 season last week on Friday; the group pegged corn acres at 94.5 million, which would be down 4.3% from this year, and pegged soybean acres at 84.0 million, which would be up 3.6% from this year. For wheat, the group sees all wheat area at 44.6 million acres, down about 1.8% from this year.
Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange said on Friday that the country’s exports of grains and their by-products could reach a record 105.1 MMTs in the 2025/26 season, which would be up from the roughly 101.6 MMTs of exports seen this year and would also be above the current all-time record set in 2018/19. The group said the increased export forecasts were the result of bigger crops, with total grain harvest seen at 146.4 MMTs.
Country-level trade data out of China for the month of August shows the country’s soybean imports from Brazil in the month at 10.49 MMTs, which was up 2.4% from July and accounted for more than 85% of the month’s total imports. Imports from the US in the month were seen at 227k MTs, which was up just over 12% from last year. For the year through August, Chinese imports of Brazilian beans are down 2% on the year at 52.74 MMTs, while imports of US beans are up nearly 31% at 16.8 MMTs.
In Europe, French crop group FranceAgriMer showed the country’s corn crop ratings at 62% G/EX as of last week, which compares to 80% in the same week a year ago, while harvest advanced 3% on the week to 5% complete. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s economy ministry said farmers had harvested 29.8 MMTs of grain here as of September 18th, which is down from 31.9 MMTs through roughly the same week last year.
The USDA confirmed over the weekend a new case of New World Screwworm in an 8-month-old calf less than 70 miles from the US-Mexico border, marking it the closest such case to the border to date. Additional details are expected to come out today and tomorrow regarding the situation, but a USDA statement said the US is fully prepared and resourced to handle the new case.
There’s not a lot of new details this morning regarding the Trump-Xi phone call from Friday that haven’t already been discussed, but Trump over the weekend did describe the talks as “very productive”, adding that items discussed included trade, fentanyl cooperation, the Ukraine war, and the finalizing of the TikTok deal that was agreed to last week. Trump also confirmed his intention to meet Xi at the APEC summit in South Korea in October.
Satellite-based rainfall data from the last 72 hours shows totals of a tenth or two up to around 1.5″ in some places impacted the Midwest over the weekend, with the best totals seemingly falling in southern MN and into central WI. Further south, rains of up to 3″ were also seen through parts of OK and AR, though were generally confined to a fairly small area.
For this week, models have trended to get wetter for the southern and eastern Midwest, as areas through the Ohio River Valley are expected see regular rainfall activity over the next five days with totals ranging from 1-3″ generally. North and west of the Ohio River will see lighter, more spotty precipitation according to the model, while areas south and east of the Ohio River seemingly have better rainfall potential through the end of the week.
This wetter pattern is seen not lasting very long though, as models in the week two period this morning have again turned back drier for most of the eastern US and Corn Belt through the first week of October. Temperature maps have little changed this morning from last week and continue to show mostly warmer-than-normal conditions for the bulk of the US in the short term, while longer terms maps still see no sign of cooler than average air returning to the Midwest into at least October 7th.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-22-2025
Good morning.
Monday trade at the CBOT is much the same as how it ended the week last week on Friday, with soybeans having extended losses to new lows so far in the overnight session and have pulled the rest of the space down with them. Friday’s Trump-China call was disappointing relative to expectations, but we cautioned all week last week that a call to wrap-up a TikTok may not have anything to do with ag or soybeans, which ended up being the case. We’ve said it all summer, but it seems a Phase One-like ag agreement is not on the table as a possible outcome this time around, and Friday’s events further solidified this thought and have produced bearish headwinds this morning. Aside from this, good rains across most of the Midwest late last week and over the weekend likely have produced a couple days of slower harvest pace, which could limit the amount of hedge selling seen early this week. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 12-14 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $4/ton and soybean oil is down around 70 points. Outside markets are quietly lower to start the week, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 90 points.
Friday afternoon’s weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that funds in the week ending September 16th were buyers of 19,878 contracts of corn (now net-short 80,051), buyers of 17,002 contracts of soybeans (net-long 2,287), and buyers of 6,569 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 85,825). In the soy products, funds were buyers of 3,013 contracts of meal (net-short 82,772) and buyers of 17,727 contracts of oil (net-long 21,388).
Also, out Friday afternoon was the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, which showed the US feedlot herd as of September 1st at 11.080 million head, which was down 1% from last year and matched expectations. Placements in August were seen at 1.780 million head, down 10% from last year, and marketings at 1.571 million head were down 14% from last year.
Private US ag consultancy S&P Global (formerly Informa) released their first acreage estimates for the 2025/26 season last week on Friday; the group pegged corn acres at 94.5 million, which would be down 4.3% from this year, and pegged soybean acres at 84.0 million, which would be up 3.6% from this year. For wheat, the group sees all wheat area at 44.6 million acres, down about 1.8% from this year.
Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange said on Friday that the country’s exports of grains and their by-products could reach a record 105.1 MMTs in the 2025/26 season, which would be up from the roughly 101.6 MMTs of exports seen this year and would also be above the current all-time record set in 2018/19. The group said the increased export forecasts were the result of bigger crops, with total grain harvest seen at 146.4 MMTs.
Country-level trade data out of China for the month of August shows the country’s soybean imports from Brazil in the month at 10.49 MMTs, which was up 2.4% from July and accounted for more than 85% of the month’s total imports. Imports from the US in the month were seen at 227k MTs, which was up just over 12% from last year. For the year through August, Chinese imports of Brazilian beans are down 2% on the year at 52.74 MMTs, while imports of US beans are up nearly 31% at 16.8 MMTs.
In Europe, French crop group FranceAgriMer showed the country’s corn crop ratings at 62% G/EX as of last week, which compares to 80% in the same week a year ago, while harvest advanced 3% on the week to 5% complete. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s economy ministry said farmers had harvested 29.8 MMTs of grain here as of September 18th, which is down from 31.9 MMTs through roughly the same week last year.
The USDA confirmed over the weekend a new case of New World Screwworm in an 8-month-old calf less than 70 miles from the US-Mexico border, marking it the closest such case to the border to date. Additional details are expected to come out today and tomorrow regarding the situation, but a USDA statement said the US is fully prepared and resourced to handle the new case.
There’s not a lot of new details this morning regarding the Trump-Xi phone call from Friday that haven’t already been discussed, but Trump over the weekend did describe the talks as “very productive”, adding that items discussed included trade, fentanyl cooperation, the Ukraine war, and the finalizing of the TikTok deal that was agreed to last week. Trump also confirmed his intention to meet Xi at the APEC summit in South Korea in October.
Satellite-based rainfall data from the last 72 hours shows totals of a tenth or two up to around 1.5″ in some places impacted the Midwest over the weekend, with the best totals seemingly falling in southern MN and into central WI. Further south, rains of up to 3″ were also seen through parts of OK and AR, though were generally confined to a fairly small area.
For this week, models have trended to get wetter for the southern and eastern Midwest, as areas through the Ohio River Valley are expected see regular rainfall activity over the next five days with totals ranging from 1-3″ generally. North and west of the Ohio River will see lighter, more spotty precipitation according to the model, while areas south and east of the Ohio River seemingly have better rainfall potential through the end of the week.
This wetter pattern is seen not lasting very long though, as models in the week two period this morning have again turned back drier for most of the eastern US and Corn Belt through the first week of October. Temperature maps have little changed this morning from last week and continue to show mostly warmer-than-normal conditions for the bulk of the US in the short term, while longer terms maps still see no sign of cooler than average air returning to the Midwest into at least October 7th.
Have a great day.
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