Good morning.
Chicago ag markets are again lower this morning to start Tuesday trade, with soybeans continuing to pace the decline on a combination of China pessimism and an expected influx of exports over the short term out of Argentina. It often becomes difficult in any year to find bullish headlines amid the full ramp-up of harvest across the Midwest, but the added incentive to add supply to the global market in South America is a bearish headwind that traders did not anticipate having to contend with going home last week, and is what is likely primarily responsible for the selling seen the last couple days. A weather issue in Brazil changes all of this drastically, but for now, the demand side of the soybean balance sheet is entirely focused on whether the rest of the world can make up the lost business to China between now and February; and this answer is not likely to be known any time really soon. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower also. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $3/ton and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 10 points. Gold futures are up around $40/oz and have again made new contract highs overnight.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed a 4% increase in corn harvest on the week, with the US now 11% done as of Sunday compared to 13% last year and the five-year average of 11%. At the state level, NC saw a 15% jump in progress, while KY and TN were each up 13% and MO was up 11%. In comparison to last year, KS is the biggest laggard at 19% behind, while TX and MO are both 8% behind; on the other hand, NC is up 12% from last year, while TN is up 5% and IA is up 3%. Conditions on the week fell another 1% in the G/EX category to 66%.
For soybeans, harvest progress also advanced 4% here on the week to 9% complete, which compares to 12% last year and the five-year average of 9%. At the state level, KY saw a 15% jump in progress on the week, while MS was up 13%, LA was up 11%, and AR was up 10%. Compared to last year, MI, WI and NE are tied for being the furthest behind at down 7%, while ND and TN are 6% behind last year, and IL is 5% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category fell 2% on the week to 61%.
Lastly for wheat, the report showed spring wheat harvest at 96% complete compared to 95% last year and 96% on average, while winter wheat seeding advanced 9% to 20%; winter wheat emergence was seen at 4% in its first update of the season, compared to 4% last year and 4% on average.
Three traders familiar with the matter said on Tuesday that Chinse buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of beans from Argentina on Monday following the announced reduction in export taxes. The shipments are said to be for November delivery and are said to have been booked at a roughly $2.15-$2.30 premium to November futures on the CBOT.
Brazilian soy lobby Abiove said on Monday that the country’s crush capacity for the coming season would be up nearly 6% from last year at 76.4 MMTs; there a total of 127 plants now actively operating in the country according to the group, up from 113 active facilities in 2024. Abiove also said they see production capacity further expanding by upwards of 19,000 tons/day over the next 12 months based on planned investments.
The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS), in a monthly report, further lowered the bloc’s corn yields in the current season from 6.93 tons/hectare in August to 6.88 tons/hectare this month, citing drought and repeated summer heat waves in southeastern growing regions as reason for the cuts.
The USDA’s ag attaché to Mexico said on Monday that they see the country’s corn production in the 2025/26 season rising by roughly 8% compared to this year to 25 MMTs, though this figure would still be roughly 3% below the current five-year average. Imports, meanwhile, are seen steady at 25 MMTs also.
Canada’s grain quality agency said on Tuesday that the country’s durum crop has been damaged from rainy, damp conditions, adding that some farmers have held off on starting harvest with hopes that drier weather returns. Meanwhile, inspectors told reporters last week that mildew and sprout damage had already appeared in some early crop samples. Canada accounts for more than half of the world’s annual durum imports.
The equity world is trading quietly this morning ahead of expected comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later this afternoon following last week’s first interest rate cut in some 9 months. Economists will be curious to hear Powell’s thoughts on future rate decisions the rest of the year, with some policymakers indicating the central bank could take a more cautious approach to further cuts in the coming months.
Satellite data shows rains continued to fall across parts of the west-central and southeastern Midwest through the day on Monday, though coverage was spotty and totals didn’t amount to more than a half inch or so for most. Forecasts are little changed overnight through the rest of the week and see additional rains for the southeastern US over the next several days and into the weekend while the northern part of the Midwest sees several days of drier conditions.
Temperatures look to continue staying mostly above average into the first part of October, with there continuing to be no sign in the extended forecast of any sort of return of cooler weather over the next two weeks for the whole of the Midwest, and really most of the broader US in general.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-23-2025
Good morning.
Chicago ag markets are again lower this morning to start Tuesday trade, with soybeans continuing to pace the decline on a combination of China pessimism and an expected influx of exports over the short term out of Argentina. It often becomes difficult in any year to find bullish headlines amid the full ramp-up of harvest across the Midwest, but the added incentive to add supply to the global market in South America is a bearish headwind that traders did not anticipate having to contend with going home last week, and is what is likely primarily responsible for the selling seen the last couple days. A weather issue in Brazil changes all of this drastically, but for now, the demand side of the soybean balance sheet is entirely focused on whether the rest of the world can make up the lost business to China between now and February; and this answer is not likely to be known any time really soon. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower also. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $3/ton and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 10 points. Gold futures are up around $40/oz and have again made new contract highs overnight.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed a 4% increase in corn harvest on the week, with the US now 11% done as of Sunday compared to 13% last year and the five-year average of 11%. At the state level, NC saw a 15% jump in progress, while KY and TN were each up 13% and MO was up 11%. In comparison to last year, KS is the biggest laggard at 19% behind, while TX and MO are both 8% behind; on the other hand, NC is up 12% from last year, while TN is up 5% and IA is up 3%. Conditions on the week fell another 1% in the G/EX category to 66%.
For soybeans, harvest progress also advanced 4% here on the week to 9% complete, which compares to 12% last year and the five-year average of 9%. At the state level, KY saw a 15% jump in progress on the week, while MS was up 13%, LA was up 11%, and AR was up 10%. Compared to last year, MI, WI and NE are tied for being the furthest behind at down 7%, while ND and TN are 6% behind last year, and IL is 5% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category fell 2% on the week to 61%.
Lastly for wheat, the report showed spring wheat harvest at 96% complete compared to 95% last year and 96% on average, while winter wheat seeding advanced 9% to 20%; winter wheat emergence was seen at 4% in its first update of the season, compared to 4% last year and 4% on average.
Three traders familiar with the matter said on Tuesday that Chinse buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of beans from Argentina on Monday following the announced reduction in export taxes. The shipments are said to be for November delivery and are said to have been booked at a roughly $2.15-$2.30 premium to November futures on the CBOT.
Brazilian soy lobby Abiove said on Monday that the country’s crush capacity for the coming season would be up nearly 6% from last year at 76.4 MMTs; there a total of 127 plants now actively operating in the country according to the group, up from 113 active facilities in 2024. Abiove also said they see production capacity further expanding by upwards of 19,000 tons/day over the next 12 months based on planned investments.
The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS), in a monthly report, further lowered the bloc’s corn yields in the current season from 6.93 tons/hectare in August to 6.88 tons/hectare this month, citing drought and repeated summer heat waves in southeastern growing regions as reason for the cuts.
The USDA’s ag attaché to Mexico said on Monday that they see the country’s corn production in the 2025/26 season rising by roughly 8% compared to this year to 25 MMTs, though this figure would still be roughly 3% below the current five-year average. Imports, meanwhile, are seen steady at 25 MMTs also.
Canada’s grain quality agency said on Tuesday that the country’s durum crop has been damaged from rainy, damp conditions, adding that some farmers have held off on starting harvest with hopes that drier weather returns. Meanwhile, inspectors told reporters last week that mildew and sprout damage had already appeared in some early crop samples. Canada accounts for more than half of the world’s annual durum imports.
The equity world is trading quietly this morning ahead of expected comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later this afternoon following last week’s first interest rate cut in some 9 months. Economists will be curious to hear Powell’s thoughts on future rate decisions the rest of the year, with some policymakers indicating the central bank could take a more cautious approach to further cuts in the coming months.
Satellite data shows rains continued to fall across parts of the west-central and southeastern Midwest through the day on Monday, though coverage was spotty and totals didn’t amount to more than a half inch or so for most. Forecasts are little changed overnight through the rest of the week and see additional rains for the southeastern US over the next several days and into the weekend while the northern part of the Midwest sees several days of drier conditions.
Temperatures look to continue staying mostly above average into the first part of October, with there continuing to be no sign in the extended forecast of any sort of return of cooler weather over the next two weeks for the whole of the Midwest, and really most of the broader US in general.
Have a great day.
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