Good morning.
Chicago corn and soybean futures are trading quietly lower to start mid-week trading this week, with the overnight session having once again been marked by low volume and small trading ranges. At the big picture level, traders have continued to debate whether the market needs to pay more attention to the large crops and the ballooning supply situation or the demand outlook that seems to be murky at best at this point, and we don’t see a solid answer to this scenario being found any time soon. Yes, the crops are big; but the market has known this for weeks now, if not months, and unless there is some sort of weather-related issue that causes a significant loss of supply in the field, their attention will be on demand and the South American growing season that is just getting ready to get started. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are trading quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 60 points. No new highs for gold overnight.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the week ending September 19th between 1.015-1.076 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 22.285-23.200 mil bbls.
The USDA will release updated quarterly hogs and pigs info after the markets close tomorrow afternoon. According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see the report showing the US hog inventory as of September 1 up 0.5% from last year at 75.832 million head. Breeding hogs are seen down 0.5% on the year to 6.013 million head, while market hogs are seen up 0.5% on the year to 69.803 million head.
Cash traders said on Tuesday that Chinese buyers continued scooping up newly available Argentine soybeans, with total purchases since the tax reduction announced at the beginning of the week now seen at more than 20 cargoes or some 1.3 MMTs. The sources say most of the shipments continue to be for November delivery, but about 20% of the total purchases are in a new crop position for next year.
China’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Tuesday that the country was expecting a bumper grain harvest, with harvest roughly 20% complete. The source cited stable grain and rice production as reason for the expectations despite seeing both drought and flood conditions in certain areas throughout the growing season.
Some traders and analysts in the renewable fuels sector expressed concern on Tuesday over comments from President Trump made at a United Nations General Assembly meeting that seemed to run in opposition to the sector, saying that the negative rhetoric used by Trump made it sound like biofuels were more a part of the “big green lie” than an actual solution to home-grown energy.
It is unclear where these talks are being held, but news outlets reported late yesterday that a Chinese trade envoy had meetings with business leaders and political persons from the Midwest that highlighted China’s roll as a major buyer of US ag goods and the overall importance in maintaining stable trade flows amid ongoing tariff talks.
Staying on the trade lines, Canadian PM Mark Carney said on Tuesday that his discussion with US President Trump on a trade deal would be part of the bigger USMCA review process that is set to happen in 2026, but added that the talks were ongoing and that there had been no shift in his intention to only sign a deal that would be right for Canada.
Other Trump news from the United Nations meetings in New York this week include a praising by Trump of Argentine President Javier Milei in a bilateral meeting between the two where Trump endorsed Milei’s re-election in 2027 and also reports that Trump would meet with Brazilian President Lula next week following a cordial encounter between the two.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated the delicate balancing act that his committee was currently facing between inflation and employment, but otherwise seemingly left the door open for additional rate cuts between now and the end of the year. Traders are pricing a nearly 95% chance that another quarter-point cut is seen in October, but Powell was less committal on his anticipated timing for the subsequent decisions.
Rains continued to dot the mid-south and the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, while forecasts otherwise continue to be little changed through the end of the week. The models see additional precipitation for these areas through the weekend, though heavier totals will be further south and east as the frontal system continues working towards the Atlantic, while the northern and northwestern parts of the Midwest look to hold in a drier pattern.
Further out, the week two forecasts are still drier than normal through the whole of the Midwest, which should allow for good harvest progress to occur through the first half of October. There are wetter biases off the coast in the far northwest and through the PNW and then also off the coast around the US Gulf in the southeast, but otherwise, most all of the US drier biases through October 8th.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-24-2025
Good morning.
Chicago corn and soybean futures are trading quietly lower to start mid-week trading this week, with the overnight session having once again been marked by low volume and small trading ranges. At the big picture level, traders have continued to debate whether the market needs to pay more attention to the large crops and the ballooning supply situation or the demand outlook that seems to be murky at best at this point, and we don’t see a solid answer to this scenario being found any time soon. Yes, the crops are big; but the market has known this for weeks now, if not months, and unless there is some sort of weather-related issue that causes a significant loss of supply in the field, their attention will be on demand and the South American growing season that is just getting ready to get started. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are trading quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 60 points. No new highs for gold overnight.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the week ending September 19th between 1.015-1.076 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 22.285-23.200 mil bbls.
The USDA will release updated quarterly hogs and pigs info after the markets close tomorrow afternoon. According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see the report showing the US hog inventory as of September 1 up 0.5% from last year at 75.832 million head. Breeding hogs are seen down 0.5% on the year to 6.013 million head, while market hogs are seen up 0.5% on the year to 69.803 million head.
Cash traders said on Tuesday that Chinese buyers continued scooping up newly available Argentine soybeans, with total purchases since the tax reduction announced at the beginning of the week now seen at more than 20 cargoes or some 1.3 MMTs. The sources say most of the shipments continue to be for November delivery, but about 20% of the total purchases are in a new crop position for next year.
China’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Tuesday that the country was expecting a bumper grain harvest, with harvest roughly 20% complete. The source cited stable grain and rice production as reason for the expectations despite seeing both drought and flood conditions in certain areas throughout the growing season.
Some traders and analysts in the renewable fuels sector expressed concern on Tuesday over comments from President Trump made at a United Nations General Assembly meeting that seemed to run in opposition to the sector, saying that the negative rhetoric used by Trump made it sound like biofuels were more a part of the “big green lie” than an actual solution to home-grown energy.
It is unclear where these talks are being held, but news outlets reported late yesterday that a Chinese trade envoy had meetings with business leaders and political persons from the Midwest that highlighted China’s roll as a major buyer of US ag goods and the overall importance in maintaining stable trade flows amid ongoing tariff talks.
Staying on the trade lines, Canadian PM Mark Carney said on Tuesday that his discussion with US President Trump on a trade deal would be part of the bigger USMCA review process that is set to happen in 2026, but added that the talks were ongoing and that there had been no shift in his intention to only sign a deal that would be right for Canada.
Other Trump news from the United Nations meetings in New York this week include a praising by Trump of Argentine President Javier Milei in a bilateral meeting between the two where Trump endorsed Milei’s re-election in 2027 and also reports that Trump would meet with Brazilian President Lula next week following a cordial encounter between the two.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated the delicate balancing act that his committee was currently facing between inflation and employment, but otherwise seemingly left the door open for additional rate cuts between now and the end of the year. Traders are pricing a nearly 95% chance that another quarter-point cut is seen in October, but Powell was less committal on his anticipated timing for the subsequent decisions.
Rains continued to dot the mid-south and the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, while forecasts otherwise continue to be little changed through the end of the week. The models see additional precipitation for these areas through the weekend, though heavier totals will be further south and east as the frontal system continues working towards the Atlantic, while the northern and northwestern parts of the Midwest look to hold in a drier pattern.
Further out, the week two forecasts are still drier than normal through the whole of the Midwest, which should allow for good harvest progress to occur through the first half of October. There are wetter biases off the coast in the far northwest and through the PNW and then also off the coast around the US Gulf in the southeast, but otherwise, most all of the US drier biases through October 8th.
Have a great day.
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