Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing higher trade this morning to start Thursday, with the bearishness of the Argy export dump seeming to be somewhat behind us as their tax levels revert back to normal following a three day “blue light special” that quickly reached the $7 billion target the government had outlined on Monday. However, despite the higher price action, what’s gone on the last three days in the world market should be anything but encouraging to the farmer in the US, as Chinese buyers are now likely covered all the way through November on their soy needs, which has once again chewed into the already shrinking US export window. Harvest pressure aside, the influx of Argy beans into the Chinese market this week was a bearish development that traders did not anticipate, and which has put another knock-on US new crop export potential. Corn futures this morning to start Thursday are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mostly in the red, crude oil futures are down 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending September 18th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 1.0-1.8 MMTs, soybean sales in a range of 500k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales in a range of 300k-600k MTs. On average, all three figures would be up from last week.
The USDA will release updated quarterly hogs and pigs info after the markets close this afternoon at 2pm central time. According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see the report showing the US hog inventory as of September 1 up 0.5% from last year at 75.832 million head. Breeding hogs are seen down 0.5% on the year to 6.013 million head, while market hogs are seen up 0.5% on the year to 69.803 million head.
We touched on it at the top, but the Argentine government, via a post on social media platform X, has re-instated export taxes at their previous levels on grains and their by-products, and also soy, beef, and poultry after hitting the $7 billion target on Wednesday. Its estimated that the bulk of these sales were soy meal and soybeans, with China being the biggest buyer. Asked Thursday if China had any intentions of buying US soybeans, a commerce ministry spokesperson responded by saying the US should take steps to remove unreasonable tariffs and create conditions to expand two-way trade.
Along similar lines, sources say the cut in export taxes is likely to spur additional imports of Argentine wheat by Brazil, who typically buys most of its import needs from Argentina. Data from January through August shows total Brazilian wheat imports at 4.68 MMTs, with 3.66 MMTs of this coming from Argentina.
Reuters this morning is reporting that a poll of 8 analysts in Australia showed wheat production in the country possibly reaching its third highest level ever at 35.3 MMTs, which would be up from 34.1 MMTs last year and the five-year average of 33.8 MMTs. Barely is seen at 14.7 MMTs vs 13.3 last year and 13.4 on average, and canola production is seen at 6.45 MMTs vs 6.4 last year and 6.5 on average.
US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Wednesday that the Trump administration would soon be providing additional financial aid to US farmers, adding that an announcement could possibly come at some point in the next couple weeks. Said Rollins, “We are currently in conversations here at the White House, across the government. We’re looking at our soybean, corn, wheat, sorghum, and cotton farmers who are facing very, very difficult times.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said interest rates have been “too high for too long” on Wednesday and argued the Fed is now heading into an easing cycle. He expressed surprise that Chairman Jerome Powell hasn’t outlined a clear target for rates, pointing to recent jobs revisions as evidence that “something was wrong” in earlier data. Bessent also confirmed he’ll conduct numerous Fed chair candidate interviews next week and that he expects the first round of these interviews to wrap up by early October.
Harvest activity should continue gaining steam in the days ahead, especially in the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt, as rains continue to work south and east the rest of the week and into the weekend. Though not necessarily related to the Midwest, the most notable forecast feature this morning is a tropical storm system in the Atlantic that is expected to bring heavy rainfall to an area through the Carolinas and Virginia beginning early next week.
Rainfall for the Corn Belt though looks to remain mostly absent through the weekend and into next week, with the forecasts then showing rainfall returning to the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt the end of next week and into next weekend. Temperatures through the period seem to remain above average, as there continues to be no sign of cooler air returning again today.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-25-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing higher trade this morning to start Thursday, with the bearishness of the Argy export dump seeming to be somewhat behind us as their tax levels revert back to normal following a three day “blue light special” that quickly reached the $7 billion target the government had outlined on Monday. However, despite the higher price action, what’s gone on the last three days in the world market should be anything but encouraging to the farmer in the US, as Chinese buyers are now likely covered all the way through November on their soy needs, which has once again chewed into the already shrinking US export window. Harvest pressure aside, the influx of Argy beans into the Chinese market this week was a bearish development that traders did not anticipate, and which has put another knock-on US new crop export potential. Corn futures this morning to start Thursday are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mostly in the red, crude oil futures are down 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending September 18th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 1.0-1.8 MMTs, soybean sales in a range of 500k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales in a range of 300k-600k MTs. On average, all three figures would be up from last week.
The USDA will release updated quarterly hogs and pigs info after the markets close this afternoon at 2pm central time. According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see the report showing the US hog inventory as of September 1 up 0.5% from last year at 75.832 million head. Breeding hogs are seen down 0.5% on the year to 6.013 million head, while market hogs are seen up 0.5% on the year to 69.803 million head.
We touched on it at the top, but the Argentine government, via a post on social media platform X, has re-instated export taxes at their previous levels on grains and their by-products, and also soy, beef, and poultry after hitting the $7 billion target on Wednesday. Its estimated that the bulk of these sales were soy meal and soybeans, with China being the biggest buyer. Asked Thursday if China had any intentions of buying US soybeans, a commerce ministry spokesperson responded by saying the US should take steps to remove unreasonable tariffs and create conditions to expand two-way trade.
Along similar lines, sources say the cut in export taxes is likely to spur additional imports of Argentine wheat by Brazil, who typically buys most of its import needs from Argentina. Data from January through August shows total Brazilian wheat imports at 4.68 MMTs, with 3.66 MMTs of this coming from Argentina.
Reuters this morning is reporting that a poll of 8 analysts in Australia showed wheat production in the country possibly reaching its third highest level ever at 35.3 MMTs, which would be up from 34.1 MMTs last year and the five-year average of 33.8 MMTs. Barely is seen at 14.7 MMTs vs 13.3 last year and 13.4 on average, and canola production is seen at 6.45 MMTs vs 6.4 last year and 6.5 on average.
US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Wednesday that the Trump administration would soon be providing additional financial aid to US farmers, adding that an announcement could possibly come at some point in the next couple weeks. Said Rollins, “We are currently in conversations here at the White House, across the government. We’re looking at our soybean, corn, wheat, sorghum, and cotton farmers who are facing very, very difficult times.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said interest rates have been “too high for too long” on Wednesday and argued the Fed is now heading into an easing cycle. He expressed surprise that Chairman Jerome Powell hasn’t outlined a clear target for rates, pointing to recent jobs revisions as evidence that “something was wrong” in earlier data. Bessent also confirmed he’ll conduct numerous Fed chair candidate interviews next week and that he expects the first round of these interviews to wrap up by early October.
Harvest activity should continue gaining steam in the days ahead, especially in the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt, as rains continue to work south and east the rest of the week and into the weekend. Though not necessarily related to the Midwest, the most notable forecast feature this morning is a tropical storm system in the Atlantic that is expected to bring heavy rainfall to an area through the Carolinas and Virginia beginning early next week.
Rainfall for the Corn Belt though looks to remain mostly absent through the weekend and into next week, with the forecasts then showing rainfall returning to the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt the end of next week and into next weekend. Temperatures through the period seem to remain above average, as there continues to be no sign of cooler air returning again today.
Have a great day.
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