Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT are quietly lower this morning to begin wrapping up the week, with the ongoing theme of low volume and small overnight trading ranges once again being the most noticeable feature of the space. Like we talked about yesterday afternoon, the big question mark for today heading into the weekend is whether hedge pressure resumes on the behalf of the US farmer or if the market can make higher highs this week for the fourth straight day. However, even if the market can muster new highs for the week today, we assume that any additional to push $4 cash corn will be met with another round of farmer selling, while beans see similar resistance at the $10 cash level. Though early yields are generally worse than expected, the US farmer is still undersold, and this will limit rally potential from a big picture standpoint for the foreseeable future. Corn futures to start Friday are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are unchanged to a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed as well, crude oil futures are down 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 70 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points; the S&P500 and NASDAQ are both near unchanged.
Yesterday afternoon’s quarterly hogs and pigs report from the USDA showed the US hog herd as of September 1 at 74.472 mil head, which is down 1.3% from last year. Hogs kept for breeding were down nearly 2% from last year at 5.934 mil head, while market hogs were down 1.3% from last year at 68.538 mil head.
The USDA also released monthly livestock slaughter data yesterday afternoon; the report showed commercial red meat production in August down nearly 5% from July and down nearly 10% from August last year at just 4.145 bil lbs. Beef production was down 8% on the month and 12% on the year at 2.017 bil lbs., while pork production was down 2% on the month and 8% on the year at 2.117 bil lbs.
The USDA on Tuesday next week will release its quarterly grain stocks and small grain production summary reports; traders see the report showing US September 1 corn stocks at 1.337 billion bushels, which would be down from 1.763 bil last year. Soybean stocks were seen at 323 mil bu vs 342 mil last year, and wheat stocks were seen at 2.043 bil bu vs 1.992 bil last year. All wheat production is seen at 1.925 bil bu, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 1.927 bil bu and last year’s quarterly figure of 1.971 bil bu.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly update, showed Argentine corn planting at 12.3%, which is up from 6.2% last week; there were no updates to either production or planted area. The group also showed wheat conditions similar to last week at 97% G/EX.
As details continue to come out regarding Chinese purchases of Argy soy and soy products this week, Reuters reported, citing two cash traders, that the number of cargoes believed to be purchased is now up closer to 40, with the shipments being mostly for November/December delivery. Argentine export officials said around 2.66 MMTs of the more than 5 MMTs booked in total were for the Nov-Dec window, while some of the purchases were also for April delivery in a new crop position.
Argentine government sources now say they expect total soybean exports in the 2024/25 marketing year to reach 10.5 MMTs following the selling frenzy from earlier this week, which would top the country’s previous export record on the current reporting system set in the 2018/19 season of 10.1 MMTs; current data only goes back to the 2017/18 season, and it’s unclear whether this figure would be a new all-time record.
Traders in India, the world’s largest buyer of veg oils, see the country’s exports in the 2025/26 season that will begin November 1st at 17.1 million ton, which would be up about 5% from the current season. The sources see palm oil imports likely to increase by around 13% on the year, while soybean oil imports are seen falling marginally from 5.1 million tons to just 5 million tons.
The EU, in its latest crop production forecast, sees total grain production now at 284.2 MMTs in the 2025/26 season, which would be up from their August forecast of 276.9 MMTs. Soft wheat production was increased from 128.1 MMTs to 132.6 MMTs, while corn was cut slightly from 57.6 MMTs to 56.8 MMTs.
According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 20th were up 3.6% from the week prior at 261k tons; corn shipments in the week at 161k tons were down 3% on the week, while soybean shipments at just 54k tons were down 10% on the week. STL barge freight rates were up 16 cents on the week to $24.70/short ton.
On the trade front going into the weekend, Fox Business reported that there had been significant progress made in US-China trade talks according to White House Economic advisor Hassett, though he acknowledged that a significant amount of work remains. Meanwhile, the EU’s trade commissioner said they met with USTR Greer and that trade talks there were still on track. Lastly, we touched on this yesterday, but President Trump has told reporters he intends on using tariff money to support the American farmer, which would lead us to believe it is unlikely he makes any significant concessions in the short term.
Along similar lines, Trump announced on Thursday another tariff package that he said was aimed at protecting the US manufacturing industry, as well as national security; the package includes 100% duties on branded drugs, as well as 25% duties on heavy-duty trucks.
Weather forecasts through the weekend and into next week are little changed from previous days this morning and continue to show little to no rain chances through most of the Corn Belt over the next several days. A tropical storm system in the Atlantic will provide heavy rainfall to parts of the southeast coast and areas around the Carolinas and GA/VA, but exact amounts will be difficult to forecast.
Meanwhile, extended forecasts are also little changed through the Midwest and Corn Belt on the precipitation side, with there still being no sign of a return to wet conditions at any point between now and October 10th. The PNW also trended drier this morning compared to previous runs this week, while the SE US and areas through the Gulf look to continue seeing moisture from tropical storm activity.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-26-2025
Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT are quietly lower this morning to begin wrapping up the week, with the ongoing theme of low volume and small overnight trading ranges once again being the most noticeable feature of the space. Like we talked about yesterday afternoon, the big question mark for today heading into the weekend is whether hedge pressure resumes on the behalf of the US farmer or if the market can make higher highs this week for the fourth straight day. However, even if the market can muster new highs for the week today, we assume that any additional to push $4 cash corn will be met with another round of farmer selling, while beans see similar resistance at the $10 cash level. Though early yields are generally worse than expected, the US farmer is still undersold, and this will limit rally potential from a big picture standpoint for the foreseeable future. Corn futures to start Friday are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are unchanged to a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed as well, crude oil futures are down 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 70 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points; the S&P500 and NASDAQ are both near unchanged.
Yesterday afternoon’s quarterly hogs and pigs report from the USDA showed the US hog herd as of September 1 at 74.472 mil head, which is down 1.3% from last year. Hogs kept for breeding were down nearly 2% from last year at 5.934 mil head, while market hogs were down 1.3% from last year at 68.538 mil head.
The USDA also released monthly livestock slaughter data yesterday afternoon; the report showed commercial red meat production in August down nearly 5% from July and down nearly 10% from August last year at just 4.145 bil lbs. Beef production was down 8% on the month and 12% on the year at 2.017 bil lbs., while pork production was down 2% on the month and 8% on the year at 2.117 bil lbs.
The USDA on Tuesday next week will release its quarterly grain stocks and small grain production summary reports; traders see the report showing US September 1 corn stocks at 1.337 billion bushels, which would be down from 1.763 bil last year. Soybean stocks were seen at 323 mil bu vs 342 mil last year, and wheat stocks were seen at 2.043 bil bu vs 1.992 bil last year. All wheat production is seen at 1.925 bil bu, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 1.927 bil bu and last year’s quarterly figure of 1.971 bil bu.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly update, showed Argentine corn planting at 12.3%, which is up from 6.2% last week; there were no updates to either production or planted area. The group also showed wheat conditions similar to last week at 97% G/EX.
As details continue to come out regarding Chinese purchases of Argy soy and soy products this week, Reuters reported, citing two cash traders, that the number of cargoes believed to be purchased is now up closer to 40, with the shipments being mostly for November/December delivery. Argentine export officials said around 2.66 MMTs of the more than 5 MMTs booked in total were for the Nov-Dec window, while some of the purchases were also for April delivery in a new crop position.
Argentine government sources now say they expect total soybean exports in the 2024/25 marketing year to reach 10.5 MMTs following the selling frenzy from earlier this week, which would top the country’s previous export record on the current reporting system set in the 2018/19 season of 10.1 MMTs; current data only goes back to the 2017/18 season, and it’s unclear whether this figure would be a new all-time record.
Traders in India, the world’s largest buyer of veg oils, see the country’s exports in the 2025/26 season that will begin November 1st at 17.1 million ton, which would be up about 5% from the current season. The sources see palm oil imports likely to increase by around 13% on the year, while soybean oil imports are seen falling marginally from 5.1 million tons to just 5 million tons.
The EU, in its latest crop production forecast, sees total grain production now at 284.2 MMTs in the 2025/26 season, which would be up from their August forecast of 276.9 MMTs. Soft wheat production was increased from 128.1 MMTs to 132.6 MMTs, while corn was cut slightly from 57.6 MMTs to 56.8 MMTs.
According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 20th were up 3.6% from the week prior at 261k tons; corn shipments in the week at 161k tons were down 3% on the week, while soybean shipments at just 54k tons were down 10% on the week. STL barge freight rates were up 16 cents on the week to $24.70/short ton.
On the trade front going into the weekend, Fox Business reported that there had been significant progress made in US-China trade talks according to White House Economic advisor Hassett, though he acknowledged that a significant amount of work remains. Meanwhile, the EU’s trade commissioner said they met with USTR Greer and that trade talks there were still on track. Lastly, we touched on this yesterday, but President Trump has told reporters he intends on using tariff money to support the American farmer, which would lead us to believe it is unlikely he makes any significant concessions in the short term.
Along similar lines, Trump announced on Thursday another tariff package that he said was aimed at protecting the US manufacturing industry, as well as national security; the package includes 100% duties on branded drugs, as well as 25% duties on heavy-duty trucks.
Weather forecasts through the weekend and into next week are little changed from previous days this morning and continue to show little to no rain chances through most of the Corn Belt over the next several days. A tropical storm system in the Atlantic will provide heavy rainfall to parts of the southeast coast and areas around the Carolinas and GA/VA, but exact amounts will be difficult to forecast.
Meanwhile, extended forecasts are also little changed through the Midwest and Corn Belt on the precipitation side, with there still being no sign of a return to wet conditions at any point between now and October 10th. The PNW also trended drier this morning compared to previous runs this week, while the SE US and areas through the Gulf look to continue seeing moisture from tropical storm activity.
Have a great day.
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