Good morning.
Ag markets at the CBOT have seen more quietly mixed trade in the overnight session coming out of the weekend, with beans and bean oil being the leaders to the downside to start the day while the meal and wheat markets are trading moderately higher. There hasn’t been a ton of new ag-specific news again over the last 48-72 hours, which has been the main culprit for the choppy, two-sided trade to start Monday as traders prepare for tomorrow’s quarterly USDA update. And while on the lines of USDA reports, there is also growing concern in the broader macro world coming into the new week regarding a looming government shutdown that should it occur, would shut off critical harvest-time supply and demand reports, as well as export data from the USDA, as well as other financial reports like monthly jobs numbers that have become critical to the markets in recent months. Otherwise, it looks to be another busy week of harvest activity across the Midwest, as forecasts allow for good progress. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also mixed this morning, crude oil futures are down $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 150 points, and the US$ index is down around 20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 140 points. Gold futures are higher and have again made new contract highs to start the week.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed in the week ending September 23rd that fund traders were sellers of 14,624 contracts of corn (now net-short 94,675 contracts), were sellers of 31,588 contracts of soybeans (net-short 29,302), and were sellers of 12,110 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 97,935). In the soy products, funds were sellers of 20,497 contracts of meal (net-short 103,269) and were sellers of 22,286 contracts of oil (net-short 898).
Also out Friday afternoon was the USDA’s monthly cold storage update for September, which showed total frozen red meat supplies down 2% from last month and down 7% from last year at 809.7 mil lbs.; frozen beef supplies were seen down 1% on the month but up 1.5% on the year at 393.8 mil lbs., while frozen pork supplies were down 3% on the month and down 14% on the year at 393.9 mil lbs.
The USDA tomorrow will release its quarterly grain stocks and small grain production summary reports at 11am central time; traders see the report showing US September 1 corn stocks at 1.336 billion bushels, which would be down from 1.763 bil last year. Soybean stocks are seen at 325 mil bu vs 342 mil last year, and wheat stocks are seen at 2.054 bil bu vs 1.992 bil last year. All wheat production is seen at 1.921 bil bu, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 1.927 bil bu and last year’s quarterly figure of 1.971 bil bu.
Over in Europe, harvest data from Ukraine’s Economy Ministry shows wheat and barely harvest have wrapped up in the country, with wheat harvest totaling 22.5 MMTs and barely harvest totaling 5.3 MMTs; total grain harvest is seen at 30.4 MMTs as of September 26th, which is down 40% from last year. For corn, the group says just 964,200 MTs has been harvested so far, compared to 4.7 MMTs through the same period last year. Meanwhile, French data shows corn harvest in the country at 14% complete as of the 22nd, which is ahead of both last year and the five-year average.
Following the Argy export frenzy last week, data from the Rosario Grains Exchange shows the country has roughly $4.93 billion worth of soy meal, soy oil and corn left to trade for the 2024/25 season, which equates to around 7.6 MMTs of soy products and 8.9 MMTs of corn.
The Economic Times reported over the weekend, citing officials familiar with the negotiations, that India is considering increasing purchases of US corn for the production of ethanol as part of its efforts to secure a larger trade deal. India is not a typical importer of US corn due to import restrictions on genetically modified crops.
Traders in India, the world’s largest buyer of veg oils, see the country’s exports in the 2025/26 season that will begin November 1st at 17.1 million ton, which would be up about 5% from the current season. The sources see palm oil imports likely to increase by around 13% on the year, while soybean oil imports are seen falling marginally from 5.1 million tons to just 5 million tons.
The USDA’s ag attaché to China last week left the country’s soybean import estimate unchanged at 106 MMTs for the 2025/26 marketing year but slightly raised its import estimate for the 2024/25 marketing year to 107 MMTs based on reported data to date. The group also slightly raised its new crop production estimate for China to 19.9 MMTs, citing generally favorable weather in northern growing regions and a slight increase in planted area.
According to a weekly report from the USDA, federally inspected pork production in the week ending September 27th was seen at 537 mil lbs., which was down a little over 1% from last week, while federally inspected beef production in the week was seen at 485 mil lbs., up 0.8% from the week prior. For the year, pork production at 19.97 bil lbs. is down 2.1% from last year, while beef production at 18.84 bil lbs. is down 4.4% from last year.
President Trump is set to meet with top congressional leaders on Monday, just one day before government funding is set to potentially expire if the two parties are unable to agree on a new short-term spending bill. Unrelated, Trump is also set to meet Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House Monday to further discuss the situation in Gaza after a slew of western leaders last week embraced a Palestinian state.
Weekend weather was largely conducive to harvest activity across the Midwest the last couple days, with warm and dry conditions continuing to be the theme for most areas. Satellite data shows rains fell in the southeastern US and also to a lesser degree through the southwest, but the Corn Belt remained mostly dry while daytime highs poked into the mid/upper 80’s for most areas.
For this week, this pattern is expected to mostly continue as there is fairly good model agreement on another several days of the same warm/dry conditions seen through the weekend lingering through the week this and into next weekend. From there, models are attempting to bring precipitation back into the northern Midwest by next weekend/early next week, but our confidence is not great as totals look to be low, and coverage looks to be scattered. Temperatures also look to stay seasonally warm into the first week of October, with there still no sign of any cooler air returning to the Midwest over the next 15 days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-29-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets at the CBOT have seen more quietly mixed trade in the overnight session coming out of the weekend, with beans and bean oil being the leaders to the downside to start the day while the meal and wheat markets are trading moderately higher. There hasn’t been a ton of new ag-specific news again over the last 48-72 hours, which has been the main culprit for the choppy, two-sided trade to start Monday as traders prepare for tomorrow’s quarterly USDA update. And while on the lines of USDA reports, there is also growing concern in the broader macro world coming into the new week regarding a looming government shutdown that should it occur, would shut off critical harvest-time supply and demand reports, as well as export data from the USDA, as well as other financial reports like monthly jobs numbers that have become critical to the markets in recent months. Otherwise, it looks to be another busy week of harvest activity across the Midwest, as forecasts allow for good progress. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also mixed this morning, crude oil futures are down $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 150 points, and the US$ index is down around 20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 140 points. Gold futures are higher and have again made new contract highs to start the week.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed in the week ending September 23rd that fund traders were sellers of 14,624 contracts of corn (now net-short 94,675 contracts), were sellers of 31,588 contracts of soybeans (net-short 29,302), and were sellers of 12,110 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 97,935). In the soy products, funds were sellers of 20,497 contracts of meal (net-short 103,269) and were sellers of 22,286 contracts of oil (net-short 898).
Also out Friday afternoon was the USDA’s monthly cold storage update for September, which showed total frozen red meat supplies down 2% from last month and down 7% from last year at 809.7 mil lbs.; frozen beef supplies were seen down 1% on the month but up 1.5% on the year at 393.8 mil lbs., while frozen pork supplies were down 3% on the month and down 14% on the year at 393.9 mil lbs.
The USDA tomorrow will release its quarterly grain stocks and small grain production summary reports at 11am central time; traders see the report showing US September 1 corn stocks at 1.336 billion bushels, which would be down from 1.763 bil last year. Soybean stocks are seen at 325 mil bu vs 342 mil last year, and wheat stocks are seen at 2.054 bil bu vs 1.992 bil last year. All wheat production is seen at 1.921 bil bu, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 1.927 bil bu and last year’s quarterly figure of 1.971 bil bu.
Over in Europe, harvest data from Ukraine’s Economy Ministry shows wheat and barely harvest have wrapped up in the country, with wheat harvest totaling 22.5 MMTs and barely harvest totaling 5.3 MMTs; total grain harvest is seen at 30.4 MMTs as of September 26th, which is down 40% from last year. For corn, the group says just 964,200 MTs has been harvested so far, compared to 4.7 MMTs through the same period last year. Meanwhile, French data shows corn harvest in the country at 14% complete as of the 22nd, which is ahead of both last year and the five-year average.
Following the Argy export frenzy last week, data from the Rosario Grains Exchange shows the country has roughly $4.93 billion worth of soy meal, soy oil and corn left to trade for the 2024/25 season, which equates to around 7.6 MMTs of soy products and 8.9 MMTs of corn.
The Economic Times reported over the weekend, citing officials familiar with the negotiations, that India is considering increasing purchases of US corn for the production of ethanol as part of its efforts to secure a larger trade deal. India is not a typical importer of US corn due to import restrictions on genetically modified crops.
Traders in India, the world’s largest buyer of veg oils, see the country’s exports in the 2025/26 season that will begin November 1st at 17.1 million ton, which would be up about 5% from the current season. The sources see palm oil imports likely to increase by around 13% on the year, while soybean oil imports are seen falling marginally from 5.1 million tons to just 5 million tons.
The USDA’s ag attaché to China last week left the country’s soybean import estimate unchanged at 106 MMTs for the 2025/26 marketing year but slightly raised its import estimate for the 2024/25 marketing year to 107 MMTs based on reported data to date. The group also slightly raised its new crop production estimate for China to 19.9 MMTs, citing generally favorable weather in northern growing regions and a slight increase in planted area.
According to a weekly report from the USDA, federally inspected pork production in the week ending September 27th was seen at 537 mil lbs., which was down a little over 1% from last week, while federally inspected beef production in the week was seen at 485 mil lbs., up 0.8% from the week prior. For the year, pork production at 19.97 bil lbs. is down 2.1% from last year, while beef production at 18.84 bil lbs. is down 4.4% from last year.
President Trump is set to meet with top congressional leaders on Monday, just one day before government funding is set to potentially expire if the two parties are unable to agree on a new short-term spending bill. Unrelated, Trump is also set to meet Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House Monday to further discuss the situation in Gaza after a slew of western leaders last week embraced a Palestinian state.
Weekend weather was largely conducive to harvest activity across the Midwest the last couple days, with warm and dry conditions continuing to be the theme for most areas. Satellite data shows rains fell in the southeastern US and also to a lesser degree through the southwest, but the Corn Belt remained mostly dry while daytime highs poked into the mid/upper 80’s for most areas.
For this week, this pattern is expected to mostly continue as there is fairly good model agreement on another several days of the same warm/dry conditions seen through the weekend lingering through the week this and into next weekend. From there, models are attempting to bring precipitation back into the northern Midwest by next weekend/early next week, but our confidence is not great as totals look to be low, and coverage looks to be scattered. Temperatures also look to stay seasonally warm into the first week of October, with there still no sign of any cooler air returning to the Midwest over the next 15 days.
Have a great day.
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