Good morning.
Corn and soybean markets have once again spent the overnight trading session quietly in the red ahead of this morning’s much anticipated USDA data, as news continues to be slow and trading interest subdued ahead of what is expected to be a fairly volatile Tuesday day of trade. Aside from the USDA numbers at 11 this morning, there will also likely be outside market influence throughout the day today as the looming government shutdown at midnight tonight will keep attention on the macro side of the space maybe more so than usual, which could also produce increased volatility. That said, regardless of what happens on either of these fronts, it will do little to alter the pre-existing facts that trade negotiations with China don’t seem to be going well and that US crops are going to be the biggest in the last several years, if not the biggest ever. It doesn’t take a super genius to understand that trade (demand) issues and a record supply outlook are not a good combination for higher prices. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are quietly lower; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down around 5 points. Outside markets are also lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points. Gold futures are lower but again made new contract highs again early last night.
Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed US corn harvest as of Sunday the 28th at 18% complete, which compares to 20% last year and the five-year average of 19%. At the state level, MO jumped 12% on the week to 40% complete, while KY was up 10% to 53% and IL and KS were each up 9% to 21% and 29% respectively. Compared to last year, KS is 22% behind, while TX is 11% behind and MO is 7% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category were unchanged on the week at 66%.
Soybean harvest was seen advancing 10% on the week to 19% complete, which compares to 24% last year and the five-year average of 20%. At the state level, MN jumped 19% on the week to 22% complete, while IA and MI each improved 13% to 17% and 14%, and IL and IN each advanced 12% to 21% and 24%. Compared to last year, WI is 21% behind, ND is 13% behind, and NE is 11% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category were up 1% on the week to 62%.
For wheat, winter wheat is 34% planted compared to 37% last year and the five-year average at 36%, while emergence is seen at 13%, which matches last year and compares to the five-year average at 12%.
Brazil’s CONAB also released updated weekly crop progress data yesterday after the close, which showed new crop soybean planting in the country at 3.5% complete as of September 27th, which compares to 2.1% complete through Sep 28th last year and the five-year average of 3.6%. First corn planting, meanwhile, is seen at 26.7% complete, compared to 21.6% last year and the five-year average of 23.6%.
The USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks and small grain production summary reports at 11am central time this morning; traders see the report showing US September 1 corn stocks at 1.336 billion bushels, which would be down from 1.763 bil last year. Soybean stocks were seen at 325 mil bu vs 342 mil last year, and wheat stocks were seen at 2.054 bil bu vs 1.992 bil last year. All wheat production is seen at 1.921 bil bu, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 1.927 bil bu and last year’s quarterly figure of 1.971 bil bu.
Following a day of talks at the White House on Monday, it appears Congressional leaders are no closer to averting a potential government shutdown later today than they were 24 hours ago, with both sides having blamed the other for the stalemate. As it pertains to ag, the most immediate impacts would be a stoppage of daily and weekly export sales data just as harvest is hitting full swing, as well as the loss of most other reports from the USDA including supply and demand updates and other monthly datasets.
According to Reuters, Vice President JD Vance said he saw a shutdown as likely due to the Democrats “refusing to do the right thing.” Threats of potential government shutdowns have become somewhat common in recent years, but Trump’s ongoing willingness to ignore spending caps has some concerned that the likelihood of a last-minute deal is notably less this time around.
Not a lot new on the weather front this morning from overnight, as models continue to show mostly dry conditions that should be conducive to harvest activity through the Midwest over the course of the rest of the week this week and into next week. There’s rainfall chances for the northern Plains and parts of the far northwestern Corn Belt Sunday into Monday, with totals expected to range from a half inch to an inch and a half or so generally speaking.
On the temperature side, models are continuing to trend slightly cooler in the western US towards the middle of next week, with their being some slight concern regarding frost potential in the northern/northwestern Midwest the first part of next week. Otherwise though, 10–15-day outlooks are keeping warmer than normal biases in place for the bulk of the Midwest into mid-October, though we are beginning to see slight signs of a possible pattern shift away from the eastern US ridging that has been in place beyond mid-month.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-30-2025
Good morning.
Corn and soybean markets have once again spent the overnight trading session quietly in the red ahead of this morning’s much anticipated USDA data, as news continues to be slow and trading interest subdued ahead of what is expected to be a fairly volatile Tuesday day of trade. Aside from the USDA numbers at 11 this morning, there will also likely be outside market influence throughout the day today as the looming government shutdown at midnight tonight will keep attention on the macro side of the space maybe more so than usual, which could also produce increased volatility. That said, regardless of what happens on either of these fronts, it will do little to alter the pre-existing facts that trade negotiations with China don’t seem to be going well and that US crops are going to be the biggest in the last several years, if not the biggest ever. It doesn’t take a super genius to understand that trade (demand) issues and a record supply outlook are not a good combination for higher prices. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are quietly lower; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down around 5 points. Outside markets are also lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points. Gold futures are lower but again made new contract highs again early last night.
Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed US corn harvest as of Sunday the 28th at 18% complete, which compares to 20% last year and the five-year average of 19%. At the state level, MO jumped 12% on the week to 40% complete, while KY was up 10% to 53% and IL and KS were each up 9% to 21% and 29% respectively. Compared to last year, KS is 22% behind, while TX is 11% behind and MO is 7% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category were unchanged on the week at 66%.
Soybean harvest was seen advancing 10% on the week to 19% complete, which compares to 24% last year and the five-year average of 20%. At the state level, MN jumped 19% on the week to 22% complete, while IA and MI each improved 13% to 17% and 14%, and IL and IN each advanced 12% to 21% and 24%. Compared to last year, WI is 21% behind, ND is 13% behind, and NE is 11% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category were up 1% on the week to 62%.
For wheat, winter wheat is 34% planted compared to 37% last year and the five-year average at 36%, while emergence is seen at 13%, which matches last year and compares to the five-year average at 12%.
Brazil’s CONAB also released updated weekly crop progress data yesterday after the close, which showed new crop soybean planting in the country at 3.5% complete as of September 27th, which compares to 2.1% complete through Sep 28th last year and the five-year average of 3.6%. First corn planting, meanwhile, is seen at 26.7% complete, compared to 21.6% last year and the five-year average of 23.6%.
The USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks and small grain production summary reports at 11am central time this morning; traders see the report showing US September 1 corn stocks at 1.336 billion bushels, which would be down from 1.763 bil last year. Soybean stocks were seen at 325 mil bu vs 342 mil last year, and wheat stocks were seen at 2.054 bil bu vs 1.992 bil last year. All wheat production is seen at 1.921 bil bu, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 1.927 bil bu and last year’s quarterly figure of 1.971 bil bu.
Following a day of talks at the White House on Monday, it appears Congressional leaders are no closer to averting a potential government shutdown later today than they were 24 hours ago, with both sides having blamed the other for the stalemate. As it pertains to ag, the most immediate impacts would be a stoppage of daily and weekly export sales data just as harvest is hitting full swing, as well as the loss of most other reports from the USDA including supply and demand updates and other monthly datasets.
According to Reuters, Vice President JD Vance said he saw a shutdown as likely due to the Democrats “refusing to do the right thing.” Threats of potential government shutdowns have become somewhat common in recent years, but Trump’s ongoing willingness to ignore spending caps has some concerned that the likelihood of a last-minute deal is notably less this time around.
Not a lot new on the weather front this morning from overnight, as models continue to show mostly dry conditions that should be conducive to harvest activity through the Midwest over the course of the rest of the week this week and into next week. There’s rainfall chances for the northern Plains and parts of the far northwestern Corn Belt Sunday into Monday, with totals expected to range from a half inch to an inch and a half or so generally speaking.
On the temperature side, models are continuing to trend slightly cooler in the western US towards the middle of next week, with their being some slight concern regarding frost potential in the northern/northwestern Midwest the first part of next week. Otherwise though, 10–15-day outlooks are keeping warmer than normal biases in place for the bulk of the Midwest into mid-October, though we are beginning to see slight signs of a possible pattern shift away from the eastern US ridging that has been in place beyond mid-month.
Have a great day.
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