Good morning.
Mid-week ag trade started lower this morning in a bit of continuation action from the Tuesday USDA sell-off, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat markets having taken out yesterday’s lows through the overnight session this morning. That said, the headline news from overnight, and likely for the majority of the day today, was not directly related to agriculture, but instead revolved around the broader macro world as the US government shutdown as of midnight last night for the first time in the last seven years. We don’t know at this point that the early-morning selling in the ag’s is directly related to this development, but we like mentioned yesterday, the lack of daily/weekly export news and relevant harvest updates to start the month of October will likely cause increased uncertainty and trading angst, which markets don’t typically like. Corn futures to start Wednesday trade are 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 4-6 cents lower. Product markets are mixed; soybean meal is down $1-2/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are lower, crude oil futures are down around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 150 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 110 points. New contract highs again for gold futures.
Yesterday’s quarterly grain stocks report from the USDA showed September 1 corn stocks at 1.532 bil bu, while soybean stocks were seen at 316 mil bu and wheat stocks were seen at 2.120 bil bu. Also out yesterday was the annual Small Grain Summary, which estimated 2025/26 US wheat production at 1.985 bil bu, which would be up from this year’s 1.971 bil bu.
Today, the USDA is set to release its monthly Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports after the markets close at 2pm central time; traders see the reports showing US soybean crush in the month of August at 196.4 mil bu, which would be up more than 17% from the figure seen last August and also up from the NOPA estimate earlier in September of 189.8 mil bu. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.726 bil lbs., which would be up 6% from last year. The Grain Crushing report is expected to show corn used for ethanol at 453.6 mil bu, which would be down 5.4% from last year.
This morning’s weekly EIA ethanol report for the week ending September 26th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.004-1.019 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.30-23.668 mil bbls. Of note on the two previously mentioned reports for today, the government shutdown means there is a non-zero chance that these reports will be delayed or not released, though we have no indication of this being likely as of this writing this morning.
Also, as it pertains to the shuttering of the Federal Government, the USDA’s published shutdown (which is for fiscal year 2024) indicates round 40% of the USDA’s staff will continue working, while operations deemed “mission critical” like food safety inspections and some lab operations would also continue. The plan also shows that non-mandatory data collection and most research would cease. Most agencies declined to respond to Reuters requests for comments regarding what reports may or may not be available.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said yesterday that Argentina could possibly harvest it’s biggest corn crop ever in the 2025/26 season, with production estimated at 58 MMTs; this would be up from 49 MMTs this year and would compare to the current record of 55.5 MMTs set in 2018/19. The group attributed the large production figure to an increase in planted area, which is expected to be up nearly 10% from last year at 7.8 million hectares. Meanwhile, soybean production in the country is seen at 48.5 MMTs, while planted area is seen at 17.6 mil hectares vs 18.4 mil last year.
Following a closed-door meeting between Chinese ambassador David Perdue and Republican lawmakers on Tuesday, it is the group’s expectation that China will not resume purchases of US ag goods anytime soon, with Mike Rounds, a senator from South Dakota, adding that “We recognize that China has intentionally not bought [US] farm goods. We don’t expect them to change that.”
According to trade data from the European Commission, the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year that began July 1 have totaled just 4.37 MMTs, which compares to 6.36 MMTs through a similar period last year. The Commission notes that export data continues to be incomplete for a number of countries, including France.
I won’t spend a ton of time on weather this morning, as forecasts through the end of the week and weekend continue to be little changed from yesterday. In the extended period though, models this morning are again trying to trend wetter for the central Midwest the week of October 9th-15th, and are in better agreement than was seen yesterday, which is raising our confidence. Temperature maps in the 10–15-day period also show cooler air working further east this morning, as signs of a pattern shift at mid-month are beginning to show up.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-01-2025
Good morning.
Mid-week ag trade started lower this morning in a bit of continuation action from the Tuesday USDA sell-off, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat markets having taken out yesterday’s lows through the overnight session this morning. That said, the headline news from overnight, and likely for the majority of the day today, was not directly related to agriculture, but instead revolved around the broader macro world as the US government shutdown as of midnight last night for the first time in the last seven years. We don’t know at this point that the early-morning selling in the ag’s is directly related to this development, but we like mentioned yesterday, the lack of daily/weekly export news and relevant harvest updates to start the month of October will likely cause increased uncertainty and trading angst, which markets don’t typically like. Corn futures to start Wednesday trade are 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 4-6 cents lower. Product markets are mixed; soybean meal is down $1-2/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are lower, crude oil futures are down around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 150 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 110 points. New contract highs again for gold futures.
Yesterday’s quarterly grain stocks report from the USDA showed September 1 corn stocks at 1.532 bil bu, while soybean stocks were seen at 316 mil bu and wheat stocks were seen at 2.120 bil bu. Also out yesterday was the annual Small Grain Summary, which estimated 2025/26 US wheat production at 1.985 bil bu, which would be up from this year’s 1.971 bil bu.
Today, the USDA is set to release its monthly Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports after the markets close at 2pm central time; traders see the reports showing US soybean crush in the month of August at 196.4 mil bu, which would be up more than 17% from the figure seen last August and also up from the NOPA estimate earlier in September of 189.8 mil bu. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.726 bil lbs., which would be up 6% from last year. The Grain Crushing report is expected to show corn used for ethanol at 453.6 mil bu, which would be down 5.4% from last year.
This morning’s weekly EIA ethanol report for the week ending September 26th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.004-1.019 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.30-23.668 mil bbls. Of note on the two previously mentioned reports for today, the government shutdown means there is a non-zero chance that these reports will be delayed or not released, though we have no indication of this being likely as of this writing this morning.
Also, as it pertains to the shuttering of the Federal Government, the USDA’s published shutdown (which is for fiscal year 2024) indicates round 40% of the USDA’s staff will continue working, while operations deemed “mission critical” like food safety inspections and some lab operations would also continue. The plan also shows that non-mandatory data collection and most research would cease. Most agencies declined to respond to Reuters requests for comments regarding what reports may or may not be available.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said yesterday that Argentina could possibly harvest it’s biggest corn crop ever in the 2025/26 season, with production estimated at 58 MMTs; this would be up from 49 MMTs this year and would compare to the current record of 55.5 MMTs set in 2018/19. The group attributed the large production figure to an increase in planted area, which is expected to be up nearly 10% from last year at 7.8 million hectares. Meanwhile, soybean production in the country is seen at 48.5 MMTs, while planted area is seen at 17.6 mil hectares vs 18.4 mil last year.
Following a closed-door meeting between Chinese ambassador David Perdue and Republican lawmakers on Tuesday, it is the group’s expectation that China will not resume purchases of US ag goods anytime soon, with Mike Rounds, a senator from South Dakota, adding that “We recognize that China has intentionally not bought [US] farm goods. We don’t expect them to change that.”
According to trade data from the European Commission, the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year that began July 1 have totaled just 4.37 MMTs, which compares to 6.36 MMTs through a similar period last year. The Commission notes that export data continues to be incomplete for a number of countries, including France.
I won’t spend a ton of time on weather this morning, as forecasts through the end of the week and weekend continue to be little changed from yesterday. In the extended period though, models this morning are again trying to trend wetter for the central Midwest the week of October 9th-15th, and are in better agreement than was seen yesterday, which is raising our confidence. Temperature maps in the 10–15-day period also show cooler air working further east this morning, as signs of a pattern shift at mid-month are beginning to show up.
Have a great day.
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