Good morning.
Following a late-session pop in the ag space to end the day on Wednesday, there has been little upside follow through so far this morning to start Thursday, as corn, soybean and wheat markets are all within spitting distance of unchanged again and in the case of the first two, have failed to trade above yesterday’s highs. In regards to Trump’s social media post and the prospects of China returning to the US bean market, we have little way of knowing what will happen at their meeting in four weeks but would just caution that this isn’t the first time prices have rallied on rumors of a China deal in the last several months, only to slowly give those gains back in the days/weeks following when nothing ends up happening. Hopefully this time is different, but we are finding it difficult to be overly optimistic still at this point. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 10-15 points. Outside markets are also mostly mixed this morning, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points; the S&P500 is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is up 130 points.
The weekly export sales report, normally out on Thursday mornings, will not be released today due to the government shutdown. There will also not be any weekly jobless data out this morning, and the USDA announced yesterday that the October WASDE report, previously scheduled for the 9th, is delayed until further notice as well.
Private US ag consultancy Stone X on Wednesday said they national average corn yield in the US this year at 185.9 bu/acre, which is down from their September estimate of 186.9 bu. The group also said they see soybean yields in the US averaging 53.9 bu/acre, compared to 53.2 previously. Corn production is seen at 16.737 bil bu, while soybean production is seen at 4.326 bil bu. Lastly, the group also said they see Brazil’s soybean crop in the coming season at 178.6 MMTs, up 500k MTs from last month.
Data shows China has purchased upwards of roughly 52,000 tons of rapeseed meal from India over the past three weeks in reaction to new trade duties on Canadian supplies, which is four times the entire amount purchased by China from India in 2024. In that year, Canadian shipments totaled 2.02 MMTs while shipments from India totaled just 13,100 tons. Cash sources say the shipments are for “prompt delivery” and have done at around $220-$235/ton.
Government data from Mexico shows a more than 30% increase in confirmed New World Screwworm cases in the month of August, as the parasite moves further north towards the US border. Data shows Mexico recorded 6,703 cases as of September 13th since the beginning of the outbreak in November of last year, compared to a previous figure of 5,086 cases registered on August 17th.
Ukraine’s economy ministry on Wednesday that it sees the country’s wheat planted area in the coming season increasing nearly 10% from this year to 5.2 million hectares. The ministry added that the increase would likely come at the expense of corn and sunflowers, which both experienced production issues in the past season due to drought conditions.
US Vice President JD Vance said on Wednesday that he does not expect the government shutdown to be long-lived, pledging to do anything in his power in the coming weeks to keep essential services running. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent said on CNBC this morning that there would be news on Tuesday next week regarding the next round of farm aid, though it is unclear at this time how that would work if the government remains shuttered.
The EU’s morning model run this morning now shows two notable bands of precipitation over the next several days into next week. The first, expected Saturday/Sunday, looks to drop 1-2″ on parts of MT/WY/ND/northern MN, while the second, seen Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday next week, looks to provide a lesser 1-1.5″ for parts of NE/IA and then east into IL/IN/OH. The GFS also sees these two bands in its run this morning but has lesser totals than the EU model.
Week two forecasts have trended back slightly drier again this morning but still show average to slightly above average precipitation conditions through IA/IL the week of October 10th-16th. On the temperature side, models are in worse disagreement today than they have been the rest of the week, with the EU seeing a sharper cool west/warm east gradient than the GFS is seeing; the GFS has most of the US now average to slightly below average.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-02-2025
Good morning.
Following a late-session pop in the ag space to end the day on Wednesday, there has been little upside follow through so far this morning to start Thursday, as corn, soybean and wheat markets are all within spitting distance of unchanged again and in the case of the first two, have failed to trade above yesterday’s highs. In regards to Trump’s social media post and the prospects of China returning to the US bean market, we have little way of knowing what will happen at their meeting in four weeks but would just caution that this isn’t the first time prices have rallied on rumors of a China deal in the last several months, only to slowly give those gains back in the days/weeks following when nothing ends up happening. Hopefully this time is different, but we are finding it difficult to be overly optimistic still at this point. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 10-15 points. Outside markets are also mostly mixed this morning, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points; the S&P500 is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is up 130 points.
The weekly export sales report, normally out on Thursday mornings, will not be released today due to the government shutdown. There will also not be any weekly jobless data out this morning, and the USDA announced yesterday that the October WASDE report, previously scheduled for the 9th, is delayed until further notice as well.
Private US ag consultancy Stone X on Wednesday said they national average corn yield in the US this year at 185.9 bu/acre, which is down from their September estimate of 186.9 bu. The group also said they see soybean yields in the US averaging 53.9 bu/acre, compared to 53.2 previously. Corn production is seen at 16.737 bil bu, while soybean production is seen at 4.326 bil bu. Lastly, the group also said they see Brazil’s soybean crop in the coming season at 178.6 MMTs, up 500k MTs from last month.
Data shows China has purchased upwards of roughly 52,000 tons of rapeseed meal from India over the past three weeks in reaction to new trade duties on Canadian supplies, which is four times the entire amount purchased by China from India in 2024. In that year, Canadian shipments totaled 2.02 MMTs while shipments from India totaled just 13,100 tons. Cash sources say the shipments are for “prompt delivery” and have done at around $220-$235/ton.
Government data from Mexico shows a more than 30% increase in confirmed New World Screwworm cases in the month of August, as the parasite moves further north towards the US border. Data shows Mexico recorded 6,703 cases as of September 13th since the beginning of the outbreak in November of last year, compared to a previous figure of 5,086 cases registered on August 17th.
Ukraine’s economy ministry on Wednesday that it sees the country’s wheat planted area in the coming season increasing nearly 10% from this year to 5.2 million hectares. The ministry added that the increase would likely come at the expense of corn and sunflowers, which both experienced production issues in the past season due to drought conditions.
US Vice President JD Vance said on Wednesday that he does not expect the government shutdown to be long-lived, pledging to do anything in his power in the coming weeks to keep essential services running. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent said on CNBC this morning that there would be news on Tuesday next week regarding the next round of farm aid, though it is unclear at this time how that would work if the government remains shuttered.
The EU’s morning model run this morning now shows two notable bands of precipitation over the next several days into next week. The first, expected Saturday/Sunday, looks to drop 1-2″ on parts of MT/WY/ND/northern MN, while the second, seen Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday next week, looks to provide a lesser 1-1.5″ for parts of NE/IA and then east into IL/IN/OH. The GFS also sees these two bands in its run this morning but has lesser totals than the EU model.
Week two forecasts have trended back slightly drier again this morning but still show average to slightly above average precipitation conditions through IA/IL the week of October 10th-16th. On the temperature side, models are in worse disagreement today than they have been the rest of the week, with the EU seeing a sharper cool west/warm east gradient than the GFS is seeing; the GFS has most of the US now average to slightly below average.
Have a great day.
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