Good morning.
Overnight ag trade begins wrapping up the week is once again quietly mixed this morning at the CBOT, with volume dropping back off from where it’s been the last few days due to an ongoing lack of actual news stories and what looks to be another busy weekend of harvest across the Midwest. With the government shuttered and there being no data updates on the horizon, traders will mostly be in wait-and-see mode through the weekend and the first part of next week for what is announced by the US Treasury on Tuesday in terms of farm aid. Like we mentioned yesterday that Trump is preparing to send payments would tell us he doesn’t see a trade deal as likely at the end of the month, but we’ve learned not to try and outguess the ‘Tariff Man’. With the farmer still significantly undersold on both his new crop corn and soybeans, it will be interesting to see what kind of an appetite he has for new sales at current cash levels if these aid payments are actually sent out in a timely manner. A tight-fisted farmer on a new influx of cash could lead to a strong basis environment if he decides the payments are enough to cover the bills for a while. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher also. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is down around 5 points. Outside markets are mixed but mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
This afternoon’s weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report will not be released due to the ongoing government shutdown. The group’s website notes when government operations return to normal that the CFTC will resume publication of the reports in chronological order, meaning the longer the shutdown lasts, the longer it will take for data to catch up once it resumes.
Private US ag consultancy S&P Global (formerly the Informa Group) on Thursday, said they see national average corn yields in the US this year at 185.5 bu/acre, which would be down from their previous estimate last month of 189.1 bu/acre. Same group sees US soybean yields at 53.0 bu/acre, down from 53.8 bu/acre last month. Production figures for both crops were also lowered from 16.768 bil bu in corn to 16.707, and from 4.306 bil bu in soybeans to 4.261 bil bu.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said in a monthly report on Thursday that they now see global grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year at 2.97 bil tons, which is up some 10 mil tons from their estimate last month. The group cited increases in wheat, maize (corn), and rice production as reason for the increase, and also noted that global stocks/use is still seen similar to last year at 30.6%, while world grain stocks are seen at 900.2 mil tons, up 1.6 mil tons from last month.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday that 2025/26 wheat yields in Argentina could possibly reach record levels due to abundant soil moisture at this point in the growing season but did not go as far to adjust their weekly production figure for the season, which remains at 22.0 MMTs. The weekly update also showed corn planting progress in the country at 19.8% complete, up from 12.3% as of last week.
Weekly data from French crop body FranceAgriMer showed the country’s corn harvest progress as of September 29th at 24% complete, which is ahead of both last year and the five-year average. G/EX ratings were unchanged on the week at 62%, which compares to 79% at this time last year.
Senate lawmakers will vote on a pair of spending plans Friday that would end the government shutdown, but sources familiar with the matter say neither is likely to pass as the hold-up enters its third day. It appears little progress was made this week on items like healthcare, which the Democrats say any deal must include funding for, while Republicans see the issue as needing to be handled separately. As it pertains to ag, it remains unclear how the shutdown will impact next week’s aid announcement or the ability to get potentially announced funds (rumored to be in the $10-14 billion ballpark) into the hands of the farmer.
Crude oil futures are quiet ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where traders are curious as to whether output cuts will be accelerated or not. Some traders see the possibility a roughly 500k bbl/day increase in production is possible, while others see the increase, if it occurs, being a more measured 275-400k bbls/day.
Weekend weather across the Midwest will be, for the most part, similar to what has been seen the rest of this week. Rains look to return to the Dakotas though late Saturday into Sunday, while there also looks to be a band of storm potential through KS/NE and into IA late Sunday and into Monday. How far east these rains are able to make it and what amount of coverage they provide next week will be key, with the model runs this morning showing bans of precipitation throughout the Midwest but also showing bands of dryness where the rains miss.
Temperatures look to remain seasonally hot for another couple days through the weekend, before things begin to cool off again across most of the Midwest by the middle of next week. Extended range forecasts show above average warmth lingering, but not nearly to the extent seen over the past week or so.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 10-03-2025
Good morning.
Overnight ag trade begins wrapping up the week is once again quietly mixed this morning at the CBOT, with volume dropping back off from where it’s been the last few days due to an ongoing lack of actual news stories and what looks to be another busy weekend of harvest across the Midwest. With the government shuttered and there being no data updates on the horizon, traders will mostly be in wait-and-see mode through the weekend and the first part of next week for what is announced by the US Treasury on Tuesday in terms of farm aid. Like we mentioned yesterday that Trump is preparing to send payments would tell us he doesn’t see a trade deal as likely at the end of the month, but we’ve learned not to try and outguess the ‘Tariff Man’. With the farmer still significantly undersold on both his new crop corn and soybeans, it will be interesting to see what kind of an appetite he has for new sales at current cash levels if these aid payments are actually sent out in a timely manner. A tight-fisted farmer on a new influx of cash could lead to a strong basis environment if he decides the payments are enough to cover the bills for a while. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher also. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is down around 5 points. Outside markets are mixed but mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
This afternoon’s weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report will not be released due to the ongoing government shutdown. The group’s website notes when government operations return to normal that the CFTC will resume publication of the reports in chronological order, meaning the longer the shutdown lasts, the longer it will take for data to catch up once it resumes.
Private US ag consultancy S&P Global (formerly the Informa Group) on Thursday, said they see national average corn yields in the US this year at 185.5 bu/acre, which would be down from their previous estimate last month of 189.1 bu/acre. Same group sees US soybean yields at 53.0 bu/acre, down from 53.8 bu/acre last month. Production figures for both crops were also lowered from 16.768 bil bu in corn to 16.707, and from 4.306 bil bu in soybeans to 4.261 bil bu.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said in a monthly report on Thursday that they now see global grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year at 2.97 bil tons, which is up some 10 mil tons from their estimate last month. The group cited increases in wheat, maize (corn), and rice production as reason for the increase, and also noted that global stocks/use is still seen similar to last year at 30.6%, while world grain stocks are seen at 900.2 mil tons, up 1.6 mil tons from last month.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday that 2025/26 wheat yields in Argentina could possibly reach record levels due to abundant soil moisture at this point in the growing season but did not go as far to adjust their weekly production figure for the season, which remains at 22.0 MMTs. The weekly update also showed corn planting progress in the country at 19.8% complete, up from 12.3% as of last week.
Weekly data from French crop body FranceAgriMer showed the country’s corn harvest progress as of September 29th at 24% complete, which is ahead of both last year and the five-year average. G/EX ratings were unchanged on the week at 62%, which compares to 79% at this time last year.
Senate lawmakers will vote on a pair of spending plans Friday that would end the government shutdown, but sources familiar with the matter say neither is likely to pass as the hold-up enters its third day. It appears little progress was made this week on items like healthcare, which the Democrats say any deal must include funding for, while Republicans see the issue as needing to be handled separately. As it pertains to ag, it remains unclear how the shutdown will impact next week’s aid announcement or the ability to get potentially announced funds (rumored to be in the $10-14 billion ballpark) into the hands of the farmer.
Crude oil futures are quiet ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where traders are curious as to whether output cuts will be accelerated or not. Some traders see the possibility a roughly 500k bbl/day increase in production is possible, while others see the increase, if it occurs, being a more measured 275-400k bbls/day.
Weekend weather across the Midwest will be, for the most part, similar to what has been seen the rest of this week. Rains look to return to the Dakotas though late Saturday into Sunday, while there also looks to be a band of storm potential through KS/NE and into IA late Sunday and into Monday. How far east these rains are able to make it and what amount of coverage they provide next week will be key, with the model runs this morning showing bans of precipitation throughout the Midwest but also showing bands of dryness where the rains miss.
Temperatures look to remain seasonally hot for another couple days through the weekend, before things begin to cool off again across most of the Midwest by the middle of next week. Extended range forecasts show above average warmth lingering, but not nearly to the extent seen over the past week or so.
Have a great day!
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