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Grain Comments: 09.22.23

Consolidation gave us mixed overnight trade with corn steady to -1, soybeans 4-6 higher, and wheat up 1-2 cents. The US dollar, energies, and equities were all higher.


Today’s Reports: Cattle on Feed


  • October options expire today
  • US corn sales vs estimates -29%, soybeans -24%
  • Corn in drought at 58%, soybeans at 53%


The commodity market has seen a shift in attitude recently to more of a risk-off mentality. This is not uncommon at the end of the growing season as weather related risk premium is pulled out of futures. Demand for US commodities is also slowing, and this is further diminishing the need for risk premium, even on soybeans where balance sheets remain tight. Instead, trade is now focusing on South American production and without a substantial weather threat in those countries there is little incentive for managed money buyers to own commodity futures, and this has been the greatest source of price support in recent months. Seasonal harvest pressure has also been weighing on the market as hedge pressure is building. This may not be a long-lasting source of pressure though as farmer sales are expected to be light as soon as harvest is complete. This year appears to be a storage year and that tends to favor cash market values. Basis values are widening considerably in areas that harvest is taking place, but if sales halt basis will react accordingly, especially with domestic demand increasing.



* US housing starts lowest in 3 years

* Deadline for potential govt shut-down approaching

* Australia confirms start of El Nino

* China builds trade relations with Malaysia

* Trade deal to increase palm oil imports

* US farmers undersold on new crop inventory

* US export demand not building

* Domestic demand up, not totally offsetting

* Five loaded vessels have now left Ukraine

* Sep 1st stocks data next Friday



* Weekly export sales -25% at 22.32 mbu

* Brazil crop 27% planted

* Brazil farmers cut back on 1st crop plantings

* Safrinha plantings expected to increase

* Argentine rains to accelerate plantings



* Weekly sales -39% at 15.95 mbu

* Brazil planting window expanded

* Larger time frame may expand plantings

* Argentine peso incentive still pushing sales

* Sales at 1.5 mmt since start

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