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Grain Comments: 09.25.23

Futures are mixed to start the week with corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans down 2-3 cents, and wheat 1-2 cents higher. The US dollar was steady, energies mixed, and equities weaker.


Today’s Reports: Export Inspections, Crop Progress


  • Sep 1st stocks report Friday
  • Basis continues to weaken
  • Dredging slows river transit even more


The main focus of this week’s trade will be month end positioning. Spot contracts of corn, soybeans, and wheat do not go into delivery this month which will ease up on market volatility. Managed money traders have been more active in the commodity market though and this will generate positioning. The fund position in corn is currently the shortest we have seen in three years so to see some buying ahead of month end would not come as a surprise. The same is true in wheat where funds are heavily short. Just the opposite is true for soybeans with funds holding a long position. This long soybean position has already been trimmed though so selling may be limited. In fact, to see some weak shorts covered would not come as a surprise. We will also start to see more harvest activity this week and trade will start to receive more yield data. Yield data to this point has been mixed and highly variable which is not uncommon to start. We will start to see enough progress this week that more accurate data will be collected. We will also start to see more positioning for the quarterly stocks data that will be released on Friday.



* Harvest progress to advance this week

* Trade expects lower yield numbers

* Test weight, quality remain concerns

* Global economy lowers demand

* US feed demand forecast to decrease

* Consumer spending starting to slow

* Ukraine/EU to work on trade dispute

* Brazil cost of production slips lower

* US dollar at 6-month highs

* Investors move towards treasury markets



* Dec contract +1 ¼ cents last week

* Brazil has record sales to China

* Sep China-Brazil trade at 4.5 mmt

* Brazil corn returns are negative

* Market needs SAM problems for rally



* Nov contract -44 ½ cents last wk

* China Aug soy oil imports +24% from July

* China souring bulk of soybeans from SAM

* Importers pass on US offers

* Brazil crop estimate rising

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