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Grain Comments: 09.26.23

Overnight trade was mixed as position squaring ahead of Friday’s reports started to increase. Corn futures were on both sides of unchanged while soybeans were 3-5 cents higher and wheat was up 2-4 cents. The US dollar was steady while energies and equities were in the red.

 

Today’s Reports: Consumer Confidence

 

  • US blacklists 28 more Chinese/Russian companies
  • Companies declared national security risk
  • Harvest pressure building

 

The US harvest continues to progress in spite of recent rains. Corn harvest is now at 15% complete, 2% ahead of average. Soybean harvest is reported at 12% as of Sunday evening, 1% ahead of average. Now that harvest is at these levels crop ratings will have much less of a market impact. For the week the corn rating improved 2 points to 53% Good/Excellent while the soybean crop rating slipped 2 points to 50% G/E. The USDA also reported winter wheat planting at 26% complete compared to the average 29%. Now that harvest has reached these levels trade is showing much less interest in the weekly data. There is little chance of progress falling behind average given current weather outlooks. There is also a minimal chance of an early frost. Bottom line is that weather is now mostly a non-issue when it comes to price discovery. The only weather focus now is on what impact drought is having on US river levels. More dredging is being reported on rivers to keep barges flowing. This is further slowing movement to the gulf and deterring importer interest. Now that this weekly report has been released traders will start to place more focus on month end positioning. First notice day on the October contracts is this Friday. We will also see the quarterly grain stocks released and this will elevate positioning in the market.

 

Highlights

* Russia suffering fuel shortages

* Russia bans all fuel exports

* Treasury yields attract buyers

* Rising fuel costs threaten farm returns

* China commodity demand slipping

* China on holiday next week

* US harvest starting to fill reserves

* Some quick ship bids still posted

* Black Sea corridor to remain closed

* FND Oct contracts is Friday

 

Corn

* Mexico to increase non-GMO plantings

* Mexico hopes to displace 6 mmt of exports in 2 years

* Would lower imports from the US to 12 mmt

* US corn demand slowing further

* Corn has room for fund selling

 

Soybeans

* Argentine peso incentive to expire Saturday

* Argentine 23/24 planting unchanged at 39.5 million acres

* IGC predicts 1% decline in soy values

* China cancels palm oil purchases

* Brazil planting pace close to last year

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