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Grain Comments: 09.27.23

Position squaring kept futures mixed overnight with corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans up 6-8 cents, and wheat 1-2 cents lower. The US dollar, energies, and equities were all higher.


Today’s Reports: Weekly Ethanol Data


  • US Dollar highest values since Nov 22
  • Brazil soy planting pace fastest in 5 years
  • China, Canada report record corn yield potential


Trade is starting to prepare for the quarterly stocks and wheat production data that will be released this Friday morning at 11:00 AM CT. September 1st corn inventory in the US is being projected at 1.44 billion bu, a 60 million bu increase from September 2022. The soybean inventory is being estimated at 245 million bu, a sharp 30 million bu decrease from last year. Wheat stocks are forecast to come in at 1.77 billion bu, just 8 million bu less than a year ago. Of these inventory numbers the most interest will fall on the soy complex as stocks are already in a rationing position and this will further tight new crop stocks to use. This possibility has caused some weak short positions to be flushed out of the market. While this is supporting the US market, global balance sheets are in a much different position with soybean production forecast to increase 30 million metric tons from last year. Even with some declines in expectations to Brazil production from recent weather their crop is likely going to be larger this year due to elevated plantings. The end of drought in Argentina is also generating ideas of a much larger soybean crop this year. These projections are removing buying urgency in the global market.



* US government shut down deadline is Saturday

* Government shut down appears likely

* Ukraine September exports -51%

* Black Sea infrastructure sees more damage

* US forecasts mostly favorable for harvest

* Brazil to see more rains

* Most Brazil rains are in the south

* Investors remain focused on outside markets

* Friday is FND on October contracts

* US quarterly stocks on Friday



* US corn export sales 23% of yearly est

* Typically sales are at 20%

* Firms lower projected 2024 acreage

* 2.8 million few acres projected

* Wheat feeding again rising



* US export sales 35% of yearly est

* US soy overpriced in global market

* 2024 soybean acres est 92.4 million

* Soy acres +1.4 million

* Reports of small soybeans coming in

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