Good morning.
Markets are quiet/mixed to begin the second to last trading day in September, as the grains are lower, and soybeans and meal are higher. As we’ve mentioned all week, today likely becomes a choppy affair in the ag space, with traders trying to get positioned for Monday’s report and farmers trying to hedge newly harvested grain. Big question over the next 72 hours remains whether rainfall from Helene makes it far enough into the Corn Belt to cause harvest delays; otherwise, weather next week looks to be rather conducive to a fairly large of amount of both corn and soybeans being harvested. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are up 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also quiet/mixed, crude oil futures are up around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points. Gold is lower and did not make new overnight contract highs for the first time this week.
For Monday’s quarterly stocks/small grains report, the trade sees corn stocks as of Sep 1 at 1.844 bil bu’s, soybean stocks at 0.351 bil bu’s, and wheat stocks at 1.973 bil bu’s. All three figures would be up from Sep 1, 2023.
2023 corn production is estimated at 15.290 bil bu’s, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 15.342 bil bu’s; 2023 soybean production is estimated at 4.164 bil bu’s, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 4.165 bil bu’s. 2024/25 wheat production is estimated at 1.966 bil bu’s, compared to the current USDA estimate of 1.982 bil bu’s.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday, in a weekly report, estimated Argentina corn planting at 10.5% complete; this is up from 7.1% last week and is roughly 3% ahead of the five-year average for this week. Soybean planting has still not advanced far enough to receive a progress update.
According to China’s state planner, import quotas for 2025 have been set at 9.64 mmt’s for wheat, 5.32 mmt’s for rice, 7.2 mmt’s for corn, and 894k mt’s for cotton. Note that these quotas are the same as in recent years but do little to offer insight into what China will actually import. 2024 YTD imports are already seen at 10.49 mmt’s for wheat and 12.56 mmt’s for corn, well above the set quotas.
Along with yesterday’s hogs & pigs report, the USDA also released its cold storage report for September; the report showed total red meat supplies in freezers at 875.166 mil lbs., which was down 1% from last month, and down 2% from last year.
Farm office FranceAgriMer said that roughly 1% of the French soft-wheat crop had been planted as of Monday, which is in-line with the five-year average. The report also showed 79% of the French corn crop rated in good or very good condition, down slightly from last week and down from 82% last year.
Yesterday’s drought monitor update showed a small stabilization in drought conditions through the Midwest, but not much else; the amount of corn area affected by D1-D4 drought was seen at 25% this week, down 1% from the week prior. Soybean area in D1-D4 drought was seen at 30%, down 3% from the week prior.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 21 totaled 502k tons, which was up nearly 37% from the week prior. Corn shipments were up 55% at 333k tons, and soybean shipments were up 14.5% at 134k tons. Barge rates in St. Louis were down $2.99 on the week to $29.37/short ton.
PCE inflation data due out later this morning will likely key equity market sentiment going into the weekend today; economists see the report showing inflation in the twelve months ending August increasing by 2.4%, compared to the 2.5% reading seen last month.
Stock markets in China had one of the best weeks in the past 15 years this week, as long-awaited government stimulus finally began to be rolled out. China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of more than 12% this week and was up nearly 3% again on Friday as the central bank announced cuts in reserve requirements.
Hurricane Helene made landfall last night near Perry, FL at about 10pm central time as a category 4 storm with sustained winds over 140 mph. Satellite data as of 6am central time this morning shows rainfall totals in parts of GA/SC that reached 6-8″, with a more general 3-5″ seen along most of the storm’s path.
Helene has weakened back into a tropical storm as of this writing this morning but is still expected to waffle around the southeastern portion of the Midwest through Sunday. The National Hurricane Center’s warning cones this morning show the storm staying more in TN/KY as opposed to further north in IN/IL.
Models see Helene’s remnants providing an additional 1-4″ of moisture into the early part of next week, with the EU being the wetter solution of the two models. Once the storm exits the east coast though, an open period of dry weather and mild temps should evolve through most of next week and into the week following for most all of the Corn Belt.
The week-two EU AI model is trying to pick up on some sort of system providing moisture to the northern Corn Belt and into the Canadian prairies, but confidence is low as none of the other models picked up on this and remain dry for almost the whole of the country into October 10th.
Still not yet a lot of change in the 10-day precipitation anomaly maps for South America; a wetter bias continues to show up for Uruguay/southern Brazil/northern Argentina where flooding will become a problem, but the remainder of Brazil and Argentina crop areas look to stay dry.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-27-2024
Good morning.
Markets are quiet/mixed to begin the second to last trading day in September, as the grains are lower, and soybeans and meal are higher. As we’ve mentioned all week, today likely becomes a choppy affair in the ag space, with traders trying to get positioned for Monday’s report and farmers trying to hedge newly harvested grain. Big question over the next 72 hours remains whether rainfall from Helene makes it far enough into the Corn Belt to cause harvest delays; otherwise, weather next week looks to be rather conducive to a fairly large of amount of both corn and soybeans being harvested. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are up 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also quiet/mixed, crude oil futures are up around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points. Gold is lower and did not make new overnight contract highs for the first time this week.
For Monday’s quarterly stocks/small grains report, the trade sees corn stocks as of Sep 1 at 1.844 bil bu’s, soybean stocks at 0.351 bil bu’s, and wheat stocks at 1.973 bil bu’s. All three figures would be up from Sep 1, 2023.
2023 corn production is estimated at 15.290 bil bu’s, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 15.342 bil bu’s; 2023 soybean production is estimated at 4.164 bil bu’s, compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 4.165 bil bu’s. 2024/25 wheat production is estimated at 1.966 bil bu’s, compared to the current USDA estimate of 1.982 bil bu’s.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday, in a weekly report, estimated Argentina corn planting at 10.5% complete; this is up from 7.1% last week and is roughly 3% ahead of the five-year average for this week. Soybean planting has still not advanced far enough to receive a progress update.
According to China’s state planner, import quotas for 2025 have been set at 9.64 mmt’s for wheat, 5.32 mmt’s for rice, 7.2 mmt’s for corn, and 894k mt’s for cotton. Note that these quotas are the same as in recent years but do little to offer insight into what China will actually import. 2024 YTD imports are already seen at 10.49 mmt’s for wheat and 12.56 mmt’s for corn, well above the set quotas.
Along with yesterday’s hogs & pigs report, the USDA also released its cold storage report for September; the report showed total red meat supplies in freezers at 875.166 mil lbs., which was down 1% from last month, and down 2% from last year.
Farm office FranceAgriMer said that roughly 1% of the French soft-wheat crop had been planted as of Monday, which is in-line with the five-year average. The report also showed 79% of the French corn crop rated in good or very good condition, down slightly from last week and down from 82% last year.
Yesterday’s drought monitor update showed a small stabilization in drought conditions through the Midwest, but not much else; the amount of corn area affected by D1-D4 drought was seen at 25% this week, down 1% from the week prior. Soybean area in D1-D4 drought was seen at 30%, down 3% from the week prior.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 21 totaled 502k tons, which was up nearly 37% from the week prior. Corn shipments were up 55% at 333k tons, and soybean shipments were up 14.5% at 134k tons. Barge rates in St. Louis were down $2.99 on the week to $29.37/short ton.
PCE inflation data due out later this morning will likely key equity market sentiment going into the weekend today; economists see the report showing inflation in the twelve months ending August increasing by 2.4%, compared to the 2.5% reading seen last month.
Stock markets in China had one of the best weeks in the past 15 years this week, as long-awaited government stimulus finally began to be rolled out. China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of more than 12% this week and was up nearly 3% again on Friday as the central bank announced cuts in reserve requirements.
Hurricane Helene made landfall last night near Perry, FL at about 10pm central time as a category 4 storm with sustained winds over 140 mph. Satellite data as of 6am central time this morning shows rainfall totals in parts of GA/SC that reached 6-8″, with a more general 3-5″ seen along most of the storm’s path.
Helene has weakened back into a tropical storm as of this writing this morning but is still expected to waffle around the southeastern portion of the Midwest through Sunday. The National Hurricane Center’s warning cones this morning show the storm staying more in TN/KY as opposed to further north in IN/IL.
Models see Helene’s remnants providing an additional 1-4″ of moisture into the early part of next week, with the EU being the wetter solution of the two models. Once the storm exits the east coast though, an open period of dry weather and mild temps should evolve through most of next week and into the week following for most all of the Corn Belt.
The week-two EU AI model is trying to pick up on some sort of system providing moisture to the northern Corn Belt and into the Canadian prairies, but confidence is low as none of the other models picked up on this and remain dry for almost the whole of the country into October 10th.
Still not yet a lot of change in the 10-day precipitation anomaly maps for South America; a wetter bias continues to show up for Uruguay/southern Brazil/northern Argentina where flooding will become a problem, but the remainder of Brazil and Argentina crop areas look to stay dry.
Have a great day.
View All News >